Ahh Oh. This isn't good. I just heard on the news that the birth rate among women in the US has dropped below the level needed to sustain a growing population. In other words, more people are dying than being born. The break-even number is 2.1 births per woman, and now we've dropped to 1.9 births.
I don't think this is due to a lack of "lust". The main excuse given for not having as many children is they are unaffordable. Not too many decades ago one income in the household was usually enough to support a family. Today it more often than not takes two incomes. Apparently we're now on the cusp of two incomes not even being enough.
We've known that middle class incomes have been flat for the past 30 or so years while the most wealthy have seen their rate of income growth skyrocket. This isn't politics, just fact. It looks like we're approaching the breaking point.
This really has far reaching consequences. With new technology and increases in productivity, it takes fewer workers to make the same amount of stuff it did just a few years ago. Today it takes more of us buying even more stuff to keep employment up. Fewer of us consumers can only exacerbate unemployment. (This makes the slogan "Buy American" even more urgent.)
Higher unemployment = more misery. And less tax revenue, which = higher deficits and/or less services. We say we want to cut spending, but when we try (think the recent budget sequester and cuts in air traffic controllers and airport TSA agents) we scream bloody murder. It's time to "pay up or shut up". We simply can't have it both ways.
To a point I can see us slipping towards what Europe is experiencing right now. For years they have been experiencing negative growth. This is what we have to look forward to.
S
It'd be nice if India and China would experience some negative growth. In a way declining population is good because we're already pretty close to the point where we won't have enough resources to provide for the world's population.
ReplyDeletePT....they say we do in fact have the technology and resources to provide for all. The problem is distribution. Some areas have an abundance, some not.
DeleteIf the only way to increase or improve our economy is to pump out more children then the earth is in trouble.
ReplyDeleteFact Steve. Aging populations need more new, young taxpayers to keep the coffers full. When that doesn't happens economies backslide. Look at the deficits in Greece, Italy, and Japan as examples. This really is NOT good news.
ReplyDeleteThrow in increasing infertility due to women waiting later in life to have a family and the health problems associated with all the GMOs in our food supply, one effect being infertility, and it is going to get really bad.
ReplyDeleteI remember the birth rate in Germany being something like 1.7 (it may be even lower now) - which, as you explained, is not enough to maintain the current population level. They know they will have to rely on immigrants. Think this is something we should consider?
ReplyDeleteand now for the good news...there's a full bottle of Sangria in the wine rack. See -- you're happier now :)
ReplyDeleteScott, I'm about your age. OK, one year older, but when I was a kid one-income families were the norm. I understand that middle class incomes haven't kept up with inflation but back in the day people didn't seem to have the immediate need to get new and bigger things that they do now. My father was a professional yet they lived in an apartment when my brother and I were born. At two they moved into a small two bedroom post WWII house and finally into a bigger 3 bedroom home when we were six. Dad had an Olds company car, but my mother drove a 51 Chevy coupe and we had an old surplus Jeep for the country. We didn't get our first TV until I was about 7, one of the last in the neighborhood, and didn't have A/C until I was 13 --- and this was in the deep South! We had to wait on things, toys came at Christmas and birthdays, and clothes were bought only at back to school time and for the summer. Vacations were station wagon road trips. My folks weren't cheap, they were typical of the time. Today all the expectations have changed and in many cases it takes those two incomes to afford it. Not saying that's bad, it's just different now.
ReplyDeleteYou're absolutely right. Just one walk-in closet in today's homes are probably bigger than all the closets combined in the house I grew up in. What you say it true, which brings up a whole 'nuther issue...."stuff". If we all tried to cut back on our consumer purchases and live more simply, the economy would collapse. Instant depression and high unemployment. We're trapped.
DeleteYep, remember when the economy was about to collapse in 1988 and what the gubmint did? They sent almost everybody breathing a $500 check and said 'go out and buy stuff.' I think it added about $250 billion to the deficit and did nothing to right the sinking ship. 'Go out and buy stuff'!!! My Depression Era parents must have been rolling over in their graves.
DeleteEdit, the $500 brainstorm was in 2008, not 1988.
DeleteAnd here I thought I was doing the world (& me!) a favor when I didn't have kids...
ReplyDelete