Thursday, December 22, 2016
Old men and their games
Ho Ho Ho....Merry Christmas. Let's take a second to listen in to Prez-elect Donald Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin exchange Christmas Good-Will-To-All wishes. It went something like this:
Putin: "We have bigger, better nukes than you do."
Trump: "Only until January 20th, Pootie. Then I'll call your SS-18 and raise you a ballistic missile submarine!"
So let the games begin.
This war of words is almost comical. Despite our crushing national debt, the US could still, if it wanted to, spend $$Billions to expand our nuclear arsenal. But we won't because we don't need to. The Rooskies simply don't have the financial resources to engage with us in an arms race. They have trouble just meeting their weekly payroll!
And besides, nuclear weapons have lost much of their "fear factor". Here's the deal....nukes aren't the "deterrent" they once were. For a country to be taken seriously when they rattle their nuclear sword they must have two things: 1, lots of nukes (which both of us have); and 2, THE WILL TO USE THEM (which neither of us has).
In 1946 we alone had nukes and we'd just shown the world we weren't afraid to use them. "Back off or you're next!" A couple dozen years later both the US and the USSR had more than enough nukes to wipe each other out, and we settled into the world of MAD, or Mutually Assured Destruction. Both sides understood that if they unleashed their nuclear arsenal, they would themselves be a smoking hole in about 30 minutes, so neither side dared try it.
By 2016 we have become so "risk averse" that as often as not our FA-18's flying over bad guy territory return with all their weapons still on their wings. We're afraid of "collateral damage" if we miss and take out so much as a popsicle stand. There's no way in hell we're going to send a nuke into Tehran or Pyongyang or even Moscow or Beijing, nor will they hit NYC or Washington or London. World opinion would universally yell at us and make us cry!
More than likely we'll settle back into the old Cold War practice of combat-by-proxy, such as we're seeing now in Syria, and/or most menacing of all, cyber-warfare. We should be more frightened of our electricity or our ATM's going down than we should be of a nuclear mushroom cloud over Topeka.
So relax, lets just sit back with a box of popcorn and watch Trump and Putin play "mine's bigger than yours." *snicker* Life goes on. :)
S
Might be entertaining of sorts... that is if we weren't talking about nukes. :I
ReplyDeleteI don't find either man funny or entertaining.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with your premise is that one of them has the temperament of an 7 year old boy. And it ain't Putin.
ReplyDeleteIn the last 7 years the US has been a big NUKE weapons upgrade program costing almost a Trillion bucks. I feared it, as we no longer have a true Megaton weapon anymore, but that was part of the upgrade. Make smaller weapons more destructive and more accurate to deliver. Basically doing our part to eliminate MAD. Sure hope it was not a mistake.
ReplyDeleteNothing to worry anyone about though, just big govt contractors making money.
I guess there's a fine line between "upgrading" and "expanding". Your knowledge of the subject obviously supersedes mine, so let me ask...are you suggesting that we might NOT be as constrained by MAD as we once were? To your knowledge are the Russians still of the "big is better" mindset or are they too becoming more sophisticated with their nuke design?
DeleteAnd of course, as usual, it's always about the money.
Wait, Zippy.....you didn't read about the new one Putin said they had? The one that could level an area the size of the SF Bay area? I'm sure our boy king is going to make sure we keep up with them. And 'tactical weapons' nucs....you are being sarcastic, right? That they, or any other mini devices are a reasonable alternative to conventional war, right?
DeleteThe best thing about MAD was it was just that, mad, and people realized that nuc war was indeed madness. Saying some aspect of it is thinkable, is singular crazy.
My info has it Mr Putin does not trust our new strategic upgrades. It is far easier and more reliable to make big 10 or 25 Megaton weapons and I would guess it is the Russian way, that has caused a lot of tension between us on the matter. So yes at this time we are less MAD than Russia, but they are not the enemy. As for the not yet leader of the free world...He should be banned from public media / censored at least. I take his build up nukes as a joke as I am sure Mr Putin does, but it riles up people and may just scare Iran into quit working on a working ICBM system, they are much closer than the media portrays. Rest easy as the world is much safer after all the START reductions. The days of SAC and USSR flying live megaton weapons around 24 hours a day was insane and I feel we are much safer now. With a joint action, small 700 to 850 kiloton weapons delivered 200 feet underground would render hardened weapon plants to rubble. The new USA weapons are not Tactical in nature, just better at not killing innocent people. I find it best to ignore the media and trump tweets for now, we still have a known president in charge and it is Christmas. Merry Christmas down in Texas.
DeleteInteresting, thx. The Russian way probably always will be big, plentiful, and crude. After your earlier comment I Googled our nuclear upgrade program and learned much, like how we can dial in how potent we want the boom to be, down to as low as 2% of the Hiroshima bomb of '45, and that some actually do believe a limited low-yield nuclear attack would be possible. But it also said the trillion dollar price tag and complete upgrade timeline is over 30 years, and the chance of all the presidential administrations over that period staying on board is very slim. As I probably won't last that long myself, I guess I'll just leave it to today's young-uns to keep an eye on things. And thanks for the nice Christmas wishes...same to you, too. Stay warm. :)
DeleteThanks to our new child-king we'll soon have schoolkids ducking and covering under their desks again. Make America Great Again!
ReplyDeleteI just keep shaking my head over all of this. But I don't want to miss the opportunity to wish you and your lovely wife a very Merry Christmas.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Stephen...and a wonderful, peaceful Christmas to you and Mrs C and CJ, too. :)
DeleteI'm with Stephen; shaking my head. And Merry Christmas to you and K!
ReplyDeleteThanks Betina. And a Merry Christmas to you and your family, too. :)
ReplyDelete