Friday, April 10, 2015

Did you hear the one about the Rabbi and the Saudi King....

As a student of geopolitics....I know, I know...*yawn*....I'm always intrigued by what's happening in that hellhole formerly known as the Mideast.  It seems those people just aren't happy unless they're fighting someone, and right now they must be feeling absolutely blissful.

Now Iranian Ayatollah What'shisname has announced that if economic sanctions against his country aren't lifted completely and immediately as soon as the recent nuclear arms treaty is implemented in June, the deal is off.  Big surprise, huh?  It's just one big stall after another.  Always has been their MO, and probably always will be.

Oh dear, what shall we do?

My advice: nothing.

The Saudi Arabians have long been among the most vociferous critics of Israel.  They have gone out of their way to support those front line countries who have vowed to wipe Israel off the map, and they have sent vast sums of $$$ to terrorist groups who are trying to do just that.

The Saudis are also bitter enemies with Iran.  Iran is Shia, while Saudi Arabia is Sunni.  (FYI, Islam is 80% Sunni, 20% Shia.)  Right now Saudi Arabia is scared shitless of Iran's growing power and their overt moves to expand their sphere of influence throughout the Mideast.

Meanwhile, in the Israeli mind, the Holocaust was just yesterday.  They are (legitimately IMO) obsessed with seeing to it that any external threat to them be stopped in its tracks, proactively if need be.  They have often been criticized for being a little heavy handed (true), but still, their paranoia is not without cause.

Now imagine this:  Saudi Arabia is heavily involved in the Yemeni civil war to their south.  Israel sees any softening of resolve to keep Iran nuclear weapon-less as something they cannot accept.  They will settle for nothing less than Iran's nuclear ambitions being gutted.

It wouldn't be be a stretch to imagine a temporary unholy alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel to kick Iran in the 'nads.  It wouldn't be too difficult for a massive Israeli strike package to slip through Jordanian airspace (perhaps even with their unofficial support), then use Saudi airspace to refuel and penetrate deep into Iran to do the deed.

With Saudi Arabia embroiled in Yemen far to the south, they would have a perfect excuse for claiming they were caught totally unaware.  "Plausible deniability" they call it.  *wink, wink*

Israel could aerial-refuel their strike aircraft en route as they ingressed and egressed Iran, essential as an unrefueled flight to Iran and back directly from Israel is beyond their capability.  And if anyone knows where the Iranians have dispersed their essential research sites, it's the Israelis.

Israel could cripple or destroy Iran's nuclear program, and Saudi Arabia could set back their old foe for years, maybe decades, just by "looking the other way".  Win/win.

Of course, Israel would have to watch for a Saudi double cross as they were returning from their strike and desperately needing to refuel over northern Saudi airspace, but it's a chance they just might take.

The West of course would stomp and holler (very insincerely) in condemnation of Israel, as would the Muslim world (except 80% would be secretly chuckling), but nothing would come of it except a few resolutions from the UN, which Israel would immediately drop straight into their overflowing File 13.

So I say let's just sit back and let the Mideast take care of the Mideast.  This geopolitical junkie will be watching intently.



  1. I doubt Israel's planes would need to refuel over Saudi Arabia because fighter planes can fly longer distances than that these days, but Israel doesn't have the type of bombs necessary to destroy sites buried deep underground. I've read that no matter how many bombs are dropped on Iran's nuclear facilities, we'd probably only delay their bomb-making ability by a matter of months. A treaty is the best way to go, despite was Israel thinks. And I've never thought the Saudis were our friends, and I agree that it's time for them to spend their immense wealth on this problem.

    1. But by carrying external fuel they limit the amount of ordinance they can carry. And frankly we don't know what kind of bombs they have. They're very good at deceiving, even their friends. A treaty would be the preferable option, but I just don't think Iran will agree to anything meaningful. They will just continue to stall, all the while speeding up their nuclear weapons programs. Maybe some sort of super cyber warfare is in the works. The Israelis are very good at that, too. I'm no military expert, but some of my scenarios here just make sense. I just don't believe the Israelis will sit idylly by and watch from the sidelines.

  2. I think I want to heavily invest in solar power...

  3. Henry Kissinger, who never saw an intervention he didn't like, some years ago was asked what we should do in the middle east. His answer: 'Nothing". Man, if the same guy who managed the 'secret' bombing of Cambodia and Laos, the usurping of Central American govt's and the support of Argentinian secret police in the 80's can't think of something we could do, we're out of luck.

  4. Stopping by from Cranky's to wish you well today.

  5. Yeah, me too, Scott. I've had a pacemaker/defibrillator for eight years. Only problem I had was being allergic to the tape they used to stick my bandage on with. SWMBO also has a pacemaker so I guess that makes us the bionic twins. It will be fine and you'll appreciate having your pulse rate up and steady. Stay well, amigo.

  6. Been thinking of you all day, my friend. Wishing you the best get well wishes and the speediest recovery possible! After you wrote your doctor was a tall Swedish blonde, I've been picturing Brigitte Nielsen as your doctor...

  7. Hope it went smoothly for you. I've had now two trips to the cath lab, so I know what you are dealing with.

  8. Thanks for the kind thoughts everyone. I think I've turned the corner and am on my way back to a nice recovery. Maybe I need a bit more "retired" and a bit less "semi-". ;). Be back soon, friends.