Hmmm....what's this button do?

I just watched this fascinating 14 minute HBO film that explains in layman's terms how the world of cyber warfare works, what it can do, and how vulnerable we might be:

It's from the perspective of the Israeli cyber security industry, one of the most advanced in the world.  (I built a home for a family, the guy being a cyber security expert...Naval Academy graduate...super smart...who works here in the US for an Israeli company, so I already knew bits and pieces of this.)  

The video shows how a hacker can take control of your car when you're driving and cause you to crash.  It shows how, with a laptop keystroke, a hacker can shut down the pumps in our water supply system or sewage treatment plants.  Ditto for our power grid.  Not everything at once, but selected here and there, at their discretion.  Can you imagine how disruptive this would be to our economy?  OMG!  And all those infrastructure controls might already be infected, just waiting for the command to activate.  They're always attacking, we're always reacting.  Not a good position to be in!

So who are these hackers?  They most likely are Russian, or Chinese, or North Korean, or Iranian, but they could also be freelancers working for the highest bidder.  It's like we're living in the 21st Century Wild West!  What they conveniently don't discuss is what the US, or the UK, or France or Germany, etc, is capable of doing to them.  Which brings me back to Israel.  Why don't we hire them, or collaborate with them (hopefully we already are), to "take care" of the Iranian mischief makers?   And the North Korean's whose expertise is behind the Iranians?

It seems to me the days of massive standing militaries are waning, just like the days of sailing ships gave way to steam and nuclear power, horses to tanks, and catapults to cannon.  We can attack an adversary, or be attacked by an adversary, without ever firing a shot.

Are we screwed?  Is it too late already?  Probably not.  We just need to make sure that our (Western) educational systems cultivate the best and brightest minds in the world to defend "us" and stay one step ahead of "them". And be grateful Israel is our friend, and do all we can to assist them and keep them our friend.

I know reading blog or Facebook or Instagram posts about puppies or butterflies or casserole recipes is more entertaining, but this is pretty fascinating, too.  Please watch it and leave me your comments.

S

What's this button do?

North Korea tried Saturday to launch a ballistic missile, and just like their last test attempt, it also failed.  Crashed and burned big time, it did.  The question now is WHY?  Was it simply a case of inferior engineering, or something else?  Sunday the former British Foreign Secretary suggested it was likely that a US cyber-attack was responsible for the North Korean missile's spectacular failure. 

We've heard for years now about other countries successful hacks / cyber attacks on American commercial and public interests.  Through all this I've been wondering, "What are we capable of doing to them?"  Of course, barring a security leak, we'll never know for sure.  But if science is truly on the cusp of being able to disable enormously expensive weapons systems with cyber commands from a dark, secure room somewhere, this could be a world "balance-of-power" game changer.

This potential new form of dominant warfare has far-ranging implications.  For many decades there have been only two true superpowers, the USSR / Russia and the US, with the US generally believed to have a considerable edge.  "Superpower" being defined as quantities and qualities of missiles, warheads, aircraft, submarines, tanks, etc.  Only a select few advanced countries could get into our very exclusive club.  

Now, with a relatively small financial investment, many smaller countries could soon find themselves in the Cyber Big Leagues.  Surely tiny Israel is there right now, joining the US, Russia, and China in the top tier.  Other potential members might include N Korea, S Korea, Japan, India, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and a few others you wouldn't think of as likely superstars.  

Can you imagine the challenges to traditional spheres of influence where former minor league players can demand and win concessions from today's superpowers?  Where most of today's massive aircraft carrier battle groups and nuclear-tipped missiles are made redundant?  Where warfare will be (even) more about electronic / digital measures and countermeasures than about the actual hardware?  Will today's heavyweights be able to gracefully and willingly share power?

For those who are today willing to appease the Tea Party's thirst for tax cuts at all costs, please think twice.  Cutting funding in the wrong places, such as in education, especially in the nerdy fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, would likely come back to haunt us in the not-too-distant future.  It's time to double-down on funding our future.  Cyber-nerds sitting at computer keyboards may not be as sexy as a fleet of stealth bombers, but they will likely someday be far more important to our national security.

Chew on that thought for a while.

S

The more things change, the more they stay the same

Back in the early days of the Cold War all us little kids were taught to dive under our school desks to shield ourselves from an incoming Commie nuclear attack.  (I'm still questioning the wisdom of letting little kids crawl all over lead-lined desks all day, but that's a topic for later.)  I'm sure this would have worked great so long as the Rooskies attacked between the hours of 8 am and 3:15 pm, and respected recess, lunch times, and summer vacations.

Things are different today.  First, the Russians are likely not our main existential threat.  Russia's Vladimir Putin no doubt remembers the concept of "Mutually Assured Destruction" or MAD, which meant both sides knew if they launched an attack on the other, they themselves would be vaporized in retaliation about five minutes later.  Putin may be an evil bully, but he isn't stupid.  He knows he can get what he wants via something virtually untraceable back to the Motherland:  cyber warfare. 

Nor is China a likely existential threat to America.  Their version of modern Communism....let's call it Communism Lite....likes making a profit, and we're their biggest customer.  We need to keep each other happy.  Neither of us has much to gain, but a tremendous amount to lose, by nuking the other.

Iran....they could be, likely WILL be an existential threat to us sooner rather than later.   Our nuclear deal with them of a few years ago was, in retrospect, a joke.  They're probably still laughing over how gullible we were.  Their radical Islamic leadership would probably be willing to write off a few million of their own people in exchange for poking an infidel in the eye.  The good news for us here in 'Merica is that Israel is geographically much closer and has vastly more to lose than we do, so before Iran can truly threaten us, Israel will....umm...."handle it".  *wink*

North Korea, however, is another matter.  Their people might be perpetually on the verge of starvation, but Kim Jong Un still lavishes money on his nuclear program.  I doubt he's concerned about a few million of his people being wiped out in a nuclear retaliatory strike....the MAD concept probably means nothing to him.  

Prez Trump thinks China can control them, but I have my doubts.  Even if China cuts N Korea off today, it's too late.   That train has already left the station.  China is probably thinking if they piss him off anger Kim Jong Un, he might someday lob a few nukes their direction, too, so they're tippy-toeing their way around "The Little Fat One" as well.  For the time being I'm not particularly worried about Crazy Kim hitting my zip code with an ICBM....he'd probably have a tough time even hitting Texas!  As a geopolitical junkie, I'll admit this one is going to be "interesting" to watch play out.

Have I missed anybody?   Is there anyone else you can think of that might have a nuke or two set aside with our name on it?  

And most importantly, now that you're an adult, do you have a Big Boy or Big Girl desk you can fit under?  ;)

S

Maybe it's time to call in a few favors

It seems our favorite boy-king, North Korea's Kim Jong Fatty Fat Fat*, will soon be able to lob a nuke in our general direction. At least that's what he says, and our spooks confirm it, too.  South Korea goes so far as to say KJFFF has enough fissile material right now to build 5-10 nuclear devices.  Every new underground nuclear test and every new ICBM test launch seems to indicate they are indeed getting closer.

 
To counter KJFFF's threat the US has moved a special X-band radar platform closer to N Korea (from Hawaii) and is moving a THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile battery to S Korea, to augment THAAD batteries in Guam and Alaska(?).  Trouble is, I've read those missiles are 1990's technology that may or may not be up to intercepting the newest N Korean missiles.

Oh poor us....what SHALL we do?

I know what I'd do if I were Prez Donnie John Trump: I'd call up my new best friend, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (sorry Putin), and ask if we could borrow some of their brand new state-of-the-art anti-missile missiles.  Just coincidentally, last week the Israelis declared operational their new Arrow 3 system. 

Arrow 3's can intercept high altitude incoming missiles, and compliment their Arrow 2 system that can counter medium range incoming missiles and their Iron Dome short range defensive missiles.  They've got all their bases covered.

Israel isn't as bureaucracy-bound as the US and can pump out whatever new defense systems they need to (in record time, even) in order to guarantee their security.  Considering the 'hood they live in, they have no choice.  While we talk, they get things done, and their stuff works pretty well, too.

And since their new missiles were co-developed by Israeli Aerospace Industries and Boeing, and funded by the US taxpayers, they really can't tell us no.  We need to remind them that we've been covering their back since the '70's, and now we'd appreciate a little back covering ourselves.

 S

*  N Korea recently asked China to prohibit its media from calling their Dear Leader "fat".  Therefore I'm now filling the void left by China's compliance by referring to him as Kim Jong Fatty Fat Fat, or KJFFF for short.  ;)

Someone well above my pay grade is probably losing a lot of sleep

It seems that 17 separate intelligence services have connected the dots and deduced that Russia's Pootie-Poo Putin hacked the emails of the Democratic National Committee, Clinton campaign manager John Podesta, and no telling what all else.  I also seem to recall reading that the Germans, the French, and other European countries have reason to believe the Rooskies are meddling in their upcoming elections, too.  In response, just a few days ago Prez Obama said we will respond "at the time and place of our choosing."  Oh yeah?

Pay attention, folks....from low intensity email hacking to elaborate cyber-sabotage, this is the new face of warfare in the 21st Century.  For a surprisingly small investment, the US, or any country for that matter, can destroy any another country, regardless of how big or powerful they might be, without ever firing a shot.  Some geeks in a dark room with a few computers can pull off the [almost] perfect crime.  Actually I don't know if it could be done by just a few geeks or if it would take a small army of geeks, or whether it could be done using a few Dell's or HP's or requires a super computer, but it CAN be done. 

Remember back in 2010 when the US with Israeli help....or was it Israel with US help?....unleashed the Stuxnet virus on Iran's nuclear enrichment centrifuges and burned up a thousand or so of them?  Now think how far cyber-warfare has advanced in the time since.  The US and the Russians, and no doubt the Chinese, Koreans, Iranians, and a few other barely-out-of-Third-World-status countries, can electronically set each other back 50 years with just a few keystrokes, and it's virtually impossible to tell who the bad guy is.  Who do you strike back?

And here's where the West is especially vulnerable:  Virtually every home, school, business, factory, port, car, truck, bus, train, and plane in the advanced world is connected and at risk, while much of the rest of the world lacks our degree of technological sophistication.  We're simply a more target rich environment.

The Soviet Union collapsed when they had to choose between "guns or butter".  The government chose guns, while the people were desperate for butter.  The people won.  Today the choice isn't one or the other.  Even North Korea's Kim Jong Turd can wield power far beyond his two-bit dictator status.  While it's possible to bomb a nuclear weapons facility, or a missile launch site, or an airbase, how do you know which geek in what room is the one that needs a good spanking?

Interesting times, eh?  Stay tuned.  I'm pretty sure this is all Bill Gates fault.  ;)

S



 

So the good guys always wear white hats, and the bad guys black hats, right?

As some of you may know I'm an avid follower of current events and fancy myself as a fairly decent (amateur) historian.  Contrary to many of my contemporaries, I don't see things as just black or white, all good or all bad.   Very few things in life fall into those nice, neat pigeon holes.  Life just isn't that simple.

Case in point: Israel.  I admire what they've had to go through just to survive as a nation, and what they've accomplished in their short history.  They certainly aren't a lilly white faultless society, but compared to any of their neighbors IMO they look pretty damn good, and they deserve our support. Many here, however, seem to think otherwise, that Israel is the big bad bully from whom we should withhold our support, while the Palestinians and other Mid East nations are always the oppressed.  That's much too black and white for me. 

 

Look at what Israel has done:  They've taken a barren, some would even call it worthless, piece of crap real estate and made it bloom.  Israel has become an international powerhouse in agricultural research and technology.

While fresh water has always been in critically short supply in much of the arid Mid East, Israel has developed and built new, ultra-efficient state-of-the-art desalination plants.  They will soon be water self-sufficient and are in a position to export their technology to others in similarly dry environs.

Israel is a R&D leader in medical technology.  Much of the technology we take for granted here today originated in Israel.  Considering their small size (8.522 million people:  6.4 million Jewish, 1.8 million Arab, and .322 million "other"), their achievements in the field of medicine are impressive.

Tel Aviv is a modern cosmopolitan city....

...and their rural agricultural collectives (kibbutz) are generally modern and efficient.

Compare any of this to what their neighbors offer their citizens.  "Well, yes, Israel is modern and progressive because they receive Billions of $$$ in aid every year."  True, but so do most of the other nations in the region.  In reality the other Mid East countries collectively receive much more US aid than does Israel.  So what do they do with theirs?

According to Time magazine in 2014, Yasser Arafat before his death controlled a personal fortune of $3 Billion dollars, money that was sent to the Palestinian people by the West, but was embezzled by the PLO leader. While it's difficult to pull off such a Grand Heist in a democracy, it's a fairly easy thing for dictators to skim off as much as they want, whenever they want.

Look at Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, the Arab Emirates, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, etc....their educational institutions, their medical technology, their agriculture, the overall "quality of life" they deliver to their citizens.  A few of the Petro-Elites do well, but everyone else is living in essentially third world conditions.  They had many, many centuries to develop and they did virtually nothing.  Israel has blossomed in just the past 68 years since their independence.

"But the Jews stole much of their land from the Arabs."  Yes, the early Zionists bought some of their land, but later simply ran some Arab owners off theirs.  That was wrong, but how is that any different from the way virtually every other country in the world, including the United States, developed? (Hello....Native Americans?)  I'm hearing the pot calling the kettle black.  It was unjust to be sure, but so is much of life.  At some point in history we have to just accept reality.

And then we come to the military balance of power in the region.

(These are Merkova IV tanks, developed and built completely in Israel.)

To this day Israel's neighbors still hold a numerical military advantage over them in men and equipment.  

Israel has to be smarter and tougher because their neighbors (except Egypt and Jordan) have vowed to wipe them off the face of the earth.  They are in a state of perpetual war, literally, against Israel.  Israel has made no such threats against them.

In fact, while Israel is believed to possess 100 or more nuclear weapons, and have since the 1970's (?), they have never once threatened to nuke their neighbors.  They don't even admit they have nukes (the world's worst kept secret).   

Military trivia:  Israel requires women to serve 2 years in the military (3 years for men), and 51% of all Israeli military officers are women.  Seems like a fairly equal society to me.

circa 1967 Six Days War

Those Israeli tanks and aircraft are not American made.

 

"Israel wouldn't even exist if the US hadn't recognized and armed them back in 1948."  Not true at all.  The US recognized the state of Israel only after the United Nations had already voted for a separate Jewish state in Palestine.  And the arms Israel used to fend off Arab attacks from all sides the instant they raised their flag were not provided by the US, but were arms mainly of British and French origin that the Jews had hastily scavenged.

A historical fact:  When Israel joined with England and France to invade Egypt in 1956 after Egyptian President Nasser nationalized the Suez canal (until then a British property), President Eisenhower backed the three countries down and sided with Egypt.  It was only after the Arab Mid East countries cast their lot with the USSR at the height of the Cold War that the US saw Israel as a tool to block Soviet expansion in the region and began to arm them.  

And even then it wasn't all US give/Israel take.  Many of the weapons we have protecting us today were joint ventures between the US ($$$) and Israel (technology).

So the Israelis are all good, and the Arabs are all bad, right?  Hardly!  For the life of me I don't understand why Israel insists on building new settlements in the occupied West Bank.  Isn't there anywhere else they could build them?  And the stranglehold/embargo they have around Gaza seems IMO to be unnecessarily harsh.  

I believe the Jews deserve their own homeland, and so do the Palestinians.  But I also understand that will only happen when the Palestinians drop their demand for Israel's annihilation.  While Israeli Arabs (yes, there are Israeli Arabs) have constitutional rights, I'm sure there is still plenty of inequality that exists.  Much of the criticism of Israel is no doubt for just cause.

For the record, I'm not Jewish, only have a couple of Jewish friends, and have no vested interest in Israel in any way.  I just feel they are by-and-large doing a great service for their people and are preserving a delicate balance of power in the region, something their neighbors can't say.  Whenever I hear a politician say we ought to back away from Israel and then heap praise on Israel's poor oppressed neighbors, I can't help but think how ignorant they are of the facts.

These are my opinions.  If my facts are somewhere in error please correct me and provide documentation. I'm not too big to admit my mistakes.  

Just always remember, there is a lot of gray in a black and white world.

S  

Do the ends ever justify the means?

I've been reading a book about the Israeli Mossad, their version of our CIA, titled Gideon's Spies. It tells the behind-the-scenes stories of some of the exploits of that fabled intelligence service, including many of the details about the numerous assassinations they've carried out.  They're pretty brutal, for sure.  Which begs the question, do the ends ever justify the means?  Is assassination ever right / justified?

Let's be clear here:  This isn't something that only the Israelis, with their backs to the sea, do to stay alive.  James Bond ^, the legendary British MI6 agent does it all the time....I've seen him!  The fact is, the British do it, the French do it, the Russians certainly do it, and so do many, many other countries.  Including your good 'ol USA.  

Our difference is we are rich enough and powerful enough that we can (usually ?) pay others to do our dirty work, enabling us to maintain "plausible deniability".  Just like we don't torture terror suspects....but we do send them to Jordan, or Egypt, or Kazakhstan for a pleasant visit with those nice folks. 

I remember my mom telling me "two wrongs don't make a right".  True, but if one of those wrongs is so heinous, and the consequences will be so catastrophic, THEN would another "wrong" be justified?

Yes, Israel has whacked scientists from Syria and Pakistan and Iran (and probably elsewhere) who were actively working on perfecting nuclear weapons, weaponized germs, etc, weapons those countries have vowed to use to "wipe Israel off the map".  And all indications were they weren't just idle threats.  Honestly, I can grudgingly understand the Israeli's  actions.

To use that same logic, if the US or the UK or France or Germany knew of a dastardly plot about to come to fruition, and if the country harboring the plotters couldn't be trusted to squash it, should we go in and "neutralize" the threat?

And where is that fine line between "yes", and "let's wait and see"?  And if "let's wait and see" prevails, what happens if they're wrong and the result is another 9/11?  Do those who erred on the side of restraint deserve responsibility for the catastrophe?  Would you have the cojones to "wait and see"?  And if you were too quick to say "go for it" (think GW Bush vs Iraq), what then? 

Let's face it, making leadership decisions is a tough business!  (That's why they all leave office with gray hair.)

To you, is this a black and white issue, or is there a big gray area?  (Pun intended.)

S

The Cradle of Civilization or....

....the Death of Civilization?

According to the currently popular fountain of knowledge (Wikipedia), "The cradle of civilization is a term referring to locations where, according to current archaeological data, civilization is understood to have emerged."  There were actually several "cradles", but the first was generally acknowledged to be in Mesopotamia, which roughly corresponds to modern day Iraq and Syria.

It seems to me this area is today more like the world's hell hole.  Is there anything good going on there?  I'm not seeing it.  Will this be where civilization ends?  There is obviously an abundance of oil and gas in the region, but little else that the rest of the world seems to have any use for.  If it wasn't for that, I think the rest of the world would just as soon let 'em fight it out among themselves.  

I believe it was Donald Trump (OK, one point for The Donald) who recently said the world was better off when Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi ruled Iraq and Libya. The people who live there would probably not agree, or maybe they would, I dunno, but at least there was a regional status quo that contained the dysfunction.  Now every little sicko guy with a kufi (beanie) thinks he is some sort of Islamic Grand Poo-Bah.  The sad part is the poor ignorant masses there seem to believe in and are willing to die for them. 

I've been reading a book titled Gideon's Spies by Gordon Thomas..."The Secret History Of The Mossad" (Israel's version of our CIA, only better).  It's a good read, and not terribly biased.  I've been amazed to learn how many plots and other evil deeds the Israelis have been able to foil.  They are brilliant, and yes, cunning, vicious, and devious, too.  They have to be....for them it's "do or die".

Despite Israeli's shortcomings, and I'll admit they are numerous, I still believe they are the closest "friends" we have in the region.  Of course they play us when it suits their needs, just like we play everyone else when it is in our interest.  But still, if anyone can cut the legs out from under Iran and all the rest of the whack jobs there, IMHO it is Israel.  

I hope our next President, whoever he/she is, will support Israel.  For if we don't, I see the cancer that is Islamic fundamentalism continuing to spread far and wide.  To think we can negotiate with and trust these radicals is absurd. 

I know this might sound all doom and gloom, but I don't mean for it to.  In fact, I'm optimistic that the good guys, led in the region by Israel, will eventually, somehow, prevail.  I think the Europeans are rapidly coming around to seeing the light, too.  Hey, I'm just calling it like I see it.

OK, skewer me now if you want.

S

Me? I thought YOU were driving?

Here I am once again with your weekly dose of boredom, unless you're a geopolitical junkie like me. Then you might find this interesting....scary even.  Based on all I've seen, heard, and read, we're on the very edge of a perfect storm, and not a good one.

Over the next few years things are going to happen all around the globe that could change us dramatically.  I base this on my world-wide reputation as a preeminent....OK, I couldn't sleep, so it was post this Stephen King-like horror story or eat ice cream.

Our world is now more inter-dependent than ever.  What happens in Vegas, or Beijing, or Tehran doesn't stay there anymore.  Here's what we could soon be seeing:

1.  The Mid East is in mid-collapse....fact.  Iraq, Syria, and a few other so called "sovereign nations" *snort* in the region will never be reconstructed.  They are fragmented beyond repair.  A working alliance is developing between Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey (all predominately Sunni Muslim) as well as....shhhh....Israel.  Their goal is to counter, take down even, Shia Muslim Iran.  Except Iran soon might have nukes, and may or may not be afraid to use them.  *gulp*
  
When the implosion finally comes, in whatever form it comes, some of us might be giddy happy....until we realize the real world consequences.  The global oil supply will be forever changed, and radical Muslims will scurry from there like rats fleeing a flooded sewer.  

As Europe gets 70-80% (?) of their energy from Russia and the Mid East combined (more on Russia later), they will be devastated.  The US, thanks to its newly energized oil production (fracking), will be somewhat spared....until the Europeans start bidding up the price of the rest of the world's oil.  Then it will impact us here, too.  We currently think we're swimming in oil world-wide, but if production tanks in the Mid East, that changes big time!  (You might think twice about the long-term wisdom of buying that giant gas guzzling truck/SUV.)

2.  Europe is screwed.  REALLY screwed!  In addition to their energy dilemma, the European Union (EU) is in its death throe.  The Euro as a monetary unit is not long for this world.  It is fatally flawed.  A common currency where each Euro zone country is counting on the others collectively to bail them out in a pinch (see Greece), yet has no say in how their errant cousins spend their money, is crazy.  If one stumbles, the others can motor along just fine, but if several go over the edge at the same time....YIKES!  (Would you give your kid a credit card, and guarantee their debts, with no strings attached?)

The wealthy northern Europeans resent the spendthrift southern Europeans, and if / when their economies hit the fan, it will be taps for the EU.  And the Biggest Loser will be Germany, and Germany pulls Europe's strings.  Dependent on others for most of their energy, and with 50% of their GNP derived from high-value exports, Germany will take a huge hit.  Europe will be "every man for himself", and we've seen how that often turns out.  

And do I even have to mention what is likely to happen when the social cost of taking in a million or more Middle Eastern refugees becomes apparent?  And since the Europeans have a rather dismal record of assimilating immigrants from other cultures, these new arrivals are likely to become restive and even violent, egged on by the embedded Muslim extremists / terrorists streaming in, too.  (But give the Europeans credit....most have their hearts in the right place at least.)

3.  China will wonder what hit them, too.  China's huge appetite for energy will see them dramatically retrench when the oil market wretches.  We tend to think of China as an economic behemoth, and it sorta is, but it's also a house of cards.  Their "stock market" is laughable.  It is HUGELY overvalued.  

Most of their companies (literally) are money losers kept afloat by their Sugar Daddy government, yet have P/E multiples in the stratosphere.  The Chinese right now are burning through their vault-full of surplus cash at an alarming rate, trying to buy time until they can fix things.  Which are they going to run out of first....time, or cash?  The ripples spreading out around the globe due to a stumbling China will be tough to contain.

And there are really two (Mainland) China's:  The industrial, gleaming, new, prosperous coastal China, and the still relatively backward interior.  The former gets much more generous treatment from their government, while their country cousins get short changed.  How long do you think THAT inequality will last when faced with a substantial economic meltdown?  Ouch!

4.  Russia....they're in denial.  They (their leadership at least) still like to think of themselves as a world power, but they aren't.  They're broke, and their economy is pretty much a one-trick pony (oil & gas).  If the collapse of the Mid East makes Russian oil suddenly more valuable....here's the scary part....they could be even MORE delusional.  The drunk bull will once again be stumbling around in the china closet.  And if they, for whatever reason, remain economically sickly, remember the old saying...."desperate people do desperate things."  Don't take your eye off them!

5.  South/Latin America is constantly on the verge of breaking out, but whenever they get close, they shoot themselves in the foot. There is no sign of anything changing there any time soon.  Same old same old.

6.  Africa is still resource rich....and still (likely forever?) dysfunctional.  No change there, either.

7.  North America (which includes the USA, for those who are geographically challenged :) will come through in much better shape, though we're not invulnerable.  We're both envied and scorned now for our often excessive / bully ways, and we will be even more so if we keep to our "my way or the highway" Tea Party / conservative attitude.  I am heartened, though, by the fact that many of our current crop of political candidates, D & R alike, are NOT the same old party hacks that we keep recycling, but genuinely new faces, even if one is Donald Trump's.  :)

We are much more energy sufficient than we were just a decade ago, yet if the rest of the world retrenches due to a Mid East in permanent collapse, we'll have foreigners wanting to buy OUR oil at prices that will hit us consumers hard in our wallets.  And with the world in a prolonged economic squeeze, we'll have fewer markets for our super-productive businesses to sell to.  We simply can't consume internally all we are capable of producing.  We'll likely see business closures, rising unemployment, and maybe even social unrest.  Then throw in a stagnant middle class, deteriorating race relations, etc....

8.  The environment is a changing.  We can argue about whether this change is man-made or just nature's natural cycle, but regardless, it's changing.  Colder winters, hotter summers, more severe droughts and floods....Mother Nature is pissed!  Her PMS may well change world-wide agricultural patterns.  Remember, hungry people are dangerous people.

When you put all the jigsaw puzzle pieces together, this is the picture on the box top.  If this scenario is correct, or even partially correct, we could be in for a rough ride.  Even if we get our house in order, we can still be blindsided by others around the world who are likely to be fighting for their lives.  Sometimes it seems like "globalism" is coming full circle to bite us, huh?

And if this scenario proves NOT to be correct, then it means all those think tanks, fancy-pants PhD analysts, and other assorted soothsayers I subscribe to were full of crap, so never mind.  ;)

S 

Death by hanging, or death by firing squad?

 Just my two cents, which actually has no cash value at all....

  
Of course the O'Bama administration is touting the new Iran / 5+1 (or whatever it's called) nuclear freeze deal, and now our living rooms are being blasted with TV commercials saying it will be the end of the world and we must stop it.  So who's right?

IMHO both are.  There is no way we are going to get (our definition of) a good deal with the Iranians.  They are led by religious zealots who don't care what the world or even their own people want.  Oh sure, they trotted out the guy with the neatly trimmed facial hair and a suit of western-style clothes to be their front man....

....but it's really this guy, their Grand Exalted PooBah, who holds the real power, and he has said the agreement will in no way alter his determination to destroy Israel or deter him from spreading his pro-Shia Muslim influence across the Mid East.  I don't trust him, or the rest of the Gubment of Iran, and look for them to cheat every chance they get. 

They'll get the world's sanctions off their backs, get the go-ahead to buy critical "stuff" from the West, then they'll be off to their old shenanigans again.  (Before the ink even dried they announced a deal with Pootie Poo Putin to buy 100 Ilyushin aerial-refueling tankers, enabling their shitty little air force to extend their range to cover virtually the entire Mid East.)

BUT....

Let's get real here....we can't stop them.  With regard to this particular crisis, we're essentially powerless.  Sure, sanction hurt them, or more specifically hurt their people, but the religious zealots who call the shots there haven't cared about their people in decades.  Why start now?  

A few years down the road this will surely look like it was a bad deal.  But at least on paper it bought us some time.  Time to figure out what to do.  Time to develop some miracle new technology that can zap their nukes, or scramble their computers with some new computer virus.  I dunno.  Anything is possible.

So I guess we should take the deal, but NEVER let ourselves think this will be the peaceful end of those pesky old Iranians.  Like your slug of a brother-in-law, they'll be back.  Count on it.  *sigh*

Fortunately (?) for us, the Egyptians, Turks, and Saudis, and of course the always vigilant Israelis are making noises like they might step to the plate and do something.  'Course, if they succeed, what will be the unintended consequences from those odd bedfellows?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

On a totally unrelated (believe it or not) topic, this evening I'm going to the gun club to shoot this:

You know what they say about men and their toys.  :)

Now where did I put my tin foil hat?

S

Israel: Hero or villan?

I recently had an interesting conversation over on Facebook with Simon Butler, the topic being Israel.  Boy, there's a lightning rod issue if there ever was one!  I've been reading up on Israel recently and have some thoughts....if you do, too, I'd love to hear yours.

People today assume the US has always been a staunch ally of Israel, but that isn't exactly true.  The US was one of the first countries (THE first?) to officially recognize Israel back in 1948.  That really wasn't the giant leap that it sounds like as the United Nations had already officially endorsed the partitioning of Palestine into two states.  The US and other western nations simply fell in line.  Some humanitarian aid was soon forthcoming, but not much else.  Certainly not US government military assistance.

Israel had agents out everywhere looking to clandestinely buy surplus military equipment.  Often the sellers had no idea who they were selling to, only that the check was good.  British small arms and armor were common.  Many aircraft were acquired from Czechoslovakia, ironically knock-off German Messerschmidt designs with western engines.  

 Czech-built Avia S-199 in Israeli service

They were almost as dangerous to Israelis as they were to their enemies, but at least they had an air force.  And the British actively armed the new Jewish state air force, too.

 British-built Gloster Meteor

Soon the French emerged as a major Israeli military supplier, also.

British-made armor supported by French-made aircraft

US-made T-6 (WWII training) aircraft

So where did the money come from to buy these arms?  Likely from wealthy Jewish American donors and organizations....PRIVATE donors and organizations.  As Simon suggested to me, it is doubtful that European Jews contributed much as they had probably been economically emaciated during WWII.

So did the US have much influence over the early Jewish state?  Not as much as you might think.  By 1956 Egypt's Gammel Abdel Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal, which led the British, French, and Israelis to launch the Suez War.  Not only was this war NOT supported by the US, but President Eisenhower slapped it down by forcing the invaders to cease.  Advantage Egypt.

It was the hugely popular Nasser who was the major sword-rattler in the Arab world against Israel by the mid-1960's.  It was he who kicked out the UN peacekeepers that separated his country from Israel, who had been enforcing a shaky peace.  It is now felt his ultimatum to the UN was a bluff, but when the UN complied, he had no choice but to save face by initiating limited hostility.  (Google the sinking of the INS Eilat by an Egyptian Komar-class missile boat prior to the start of the Six Days War.)

Sensing all-out war against a combined much larger enemy was imminent, Israel attacked first.  The 1967 Six Days War was a huge success for Israel, leading many to think Israel INITIATED the fight with a sucker punch.  (In a fight to the death, the LAST thing you want is a "fair fight".)  Realistically, this was Israel's best hope to prevail over the much more powerful enemy aligned against them on three fronts:  From Egypt, Syria, and Jordan.  They saw it as simply survival.  And for the record, Israel's vaunted air force at the time was equipped with French, not American aircraft.

By this time the Cold War with the Soviet Union was nearing its peak, and the Rooskies became the patron of the Arab nations.  It was a numbers game for the USSR:  There were hundreds of millions of Arabs, and only a few million Jews.  It was only then that the US became Israel's primary backer, not so much because they loved Israel, but because Israel was a tool the US could use to thwart further Soviet advances in the region.  The US also became closely allied with Turkey at about the same time, for the same reason.  

We remained "attached at the hip" with Israel until the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990's.  After that, we didn't need Israel as much and our support cooled considerably, although not entirely, as the rise of Arab nationalism was still a concern, and the natural counter was....ta-da....Israel!  There was a lot of pragmatism involved there.

Israel is roundly and regularly criticized for the method by which the Zionists gained control of land in the region.  Early settlers legitimately bought their land, but later the Jews became more heavy-handed, simply in many cases rounding up Palestinians and kicking them out.  

Right?  Of course not!  But let's face reality:  This is often how the world works.  The English did it, the French did it, the Germans did it, the Spanish did it, and...wait for it...the Americans did it, too!  (HELLO....Native Americans?)  How do you think Texas came to be where it is today?  And California?  They were WAR PRIZES.  Fact!  While many wrongs don't make a right, I don't see the Israelis as setting any new precedents....they haven't sunk to a new low.  That bar was pretty low to begin with.

And look at what the Israelis have done with their land:  It has blossomed, with a robust civilization, educations of higher learning, major new agricultural and scientific innovations (out of necessity), and more.  What did the Palestinians do with that same land prior to the Zionists arriving?  Not much.  Look it up.

So yes, I'm a supporter of Israel.  Do I follow their every lead with enthusiasm?  No, not at all.  I believe the Palestinians deserve their own homeland, too.  But the problem for Israel is how to give the Palestinians Carte Blanche to run their affairs as they see fit when they have vowed to destroy Israel?  

It isn't like Hamas can't control their extremists who regularly lob crude missiles at Israel.  THEY are the extremists doing the lobbing!  When they can act like law-abiding members of the international community and live side-by-side in peace with their neighbors, THEN they should be allowed to run their own affairs.  Until then it would IMO be suicide for Israel to NOT defend themselves.  

And building new settlements in the "occupied territories"....I understand why the militant Zionists want to do it, but why can't cooler heads see the problem this is causing?  That's crazy!

Here's the really sad part:  The Palestinians are so full of hatred for Israel they DON'T WANT peace with Israel.  As long as they are willing to launch an attack and sacrifice some of their own people, provoking a response from Israel, they can justify their existence as victims who should have the world's sympathy.  They don't seem to value the lives of their own people.  Their people are just pawns.  *sigh*

Fighting has been raging in the Mideast for centuries, and I doubt we or anyone else can bring peace to them now.  One thing is for certain....our involvement is just adding fuel to the fire.  It's sorta like we have a tiger by the tail and don't know how to let go, or even if we should let go.  Ouch!

S