I have an honest question for you, a question that I don't have the answer to. I'm hoping you do.
Thankfully our economy is flying high. Our official unemployment rate is around 4%, which I've always heard was considered "full employment". Those final 4% who weren't employed (and perhaps that many more who weren't even looking) were often said to prefer welfare to a minimum wage job, couldn't pass a drug test, had a violent criminal history, etc, which made them "unemployable".
In my area (Dallas) there are "help wanted" signs everywhere you turn, especially in food service and retail. In the construction field additional plumbers, electricians, carpenters, etc, are desperately needed. The same goes for the health care industry, too.
Now Congress has passed and the President has signed a tax cut bill hoping that many companies will plan major expansions and create millions of new jobs. So far there have already been announcements by Intel, Apple, Amazon, and many more that they are now hiring. Right now Amazon is looking for a location to build a second headquarters (what exactly is a second headquarters?) promising 50,000 jobs to the winning city....on and on.
The Trump administration is threatening to deport the "dreamers", kids who were brought here by their parents who entered the US illegally. They say there are 800,000 dreamers who are here now in school, in the military, and working. If those who are now employed are deported, that will mean even more job vacancies.
My question is now obvious. Where are we going to find quality candidates to fill all the positions we already have, plus the new jobs being created, plus the vacancies created by dreamers (and others) leaving, plus normal job attrition?
It sounds like we're already scraping the bottom of the employment pool barrel right now. Isn't this likely to mean a wild bidding spree by employers, driving up wages and salaries for those willing to change jobs? Good for employees, sure, but won't that also create serious inflationary pressures?
This reminds me of the old saying, "Be careful what you wish for." It's truly a blessing to have this "problem", but please tell me, where are all these new workers going to come from?
S
Must be those pesky Mexicans taking all the service jobs waiting tables, processing beef and pork, cleaning motel rooms, picking fruit and veggies, mowing lawns, manual labor, etc.
ReplyDeleteOh, wait... you're saying it is the opposite problem...
Exactly my point. Instead of kicking people out, we need to be bringing more in.
DeleteBut those food service and retail jobs mostly don't pay a living wage. Unless you think you can live on $10/hour.
ReplyDeleteIt's always funny though how during the campaign Trump said the Department of Labor numbers were "fake news" and the "real" unemployment was upwards of 40%. But now that his Labor Department is putting out the numbers they're awesome! (And pretty much the same as during the last year of Obama's tenure.) So either unemployment dropped about 35% in a month or he was lying...as usual.
Pat, don't bring up stats that are difficult for trumpers to explain....and how can it be that trump could lie, and people would believe him? Inconceivable.
DeleteYou're right Pat. "Lies, damn lies, and statistics." And since many of our manufacturing jobs have gone overseas, people are losing $30 an hour jobs and having to take $10 an hour jobs. Before long we'll all just be cutting each other's hair.
DeleteAnd Mike, Trump doesn't lie, he just uses "alternative facts". *snort*
DeleteGood question! The unemployed coal miners are holding out for their coal mining jobs to come back, so they definitely won't sign up for wiping bedpans or driving forklifts at Amazon.
ReplyDeleteBut wait...all those jobs that will be lost because of the new tariffs on solar panels - that's about 25,000 people right there. Along with the Kmart, JC Penney's, and Toys R Us people getting laid off, that should take care of it, no?
There are people in dead industries who are indeed delusional. But if we close 2M jobs and then create 2M jobs, we have a net of 0 new jobs. We need to place those people laid off into new jobs and then create 2M new ones, too. That's what they're promising, and I don't see how.
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