I've come to believe statistics are just some high-end slight-of-hand tricks that very highly educated mathematicians use on us to pull in big-buck paychecks. And by "us" I mean the American taxpayers. For example, just this morning I heard on 'da news that, according to the Labor Department, in December the US economy generated 156,000 new jobs, AND THE JOB CREATION FIGURE FOR NOVEMBER WAS ADJUSTED UPWARDS TO 204,000.
What do they mean "adjusted upwards"? I suspect what they were trying to say, without giving away their little scam, is that they just made up a number a month ago, but since then they've looked around and seen fewer panhandlers on the street, so, yeah, more people are probably working than they first guesstimated.
"So what do ya think, guys? Should we bump it another 20,000?"
"Sounds good to me. But hurry it up, Genius Jeopardy is on in 20 minutes."
And how can we check their numbers? If you Google it, Google refers you to the GOVERNMENT STATISTICS!
WELL, DUH! Seems like pretty good job security to me.
Hmmm....methinks I've just figured out their dirty little secret. *wink*
S
NOTE: I actually meant this to be satirical, but the more I think about it, the more it seems to resemble reality.
I thought that the economy has not done particularly well these last 8 years, but statistics show the economy has never been better. Who are you to believe, your perception, or the experts and their statistics? I'll go with the experts, they make me feel much better about things.
ReplyDeleteSatire will be reality for at least the next four years, methinks.
ReplyDeleteSo, statistically 2015-2016 wasn't the best ever for U.S. carmakers? And, statistically corporations and the banks aren't showing record profits? And, statistically corporate CEO salaries aren't through the roof. And, statistically over the past 8 years the Dow isn't at an all time high? Damn statistics.
ReplyDeleteLike I said, apparently this is the strongest economy we have ever had...it just does not seem that way to me and others. Maybe because my healthcare has doubled and now is more that my mortgage, while my fixed income is stagnant and many people are working only part time or given up all together, and housing costs are at an all time high, but clearly that is just my perception as your statistical claims show. It boggles my mind that the voters in November did not realize how great the economy is, they should have been fed a greater helping of statistics.
DeleteThe Labor Department sends surveys to businesses that they fill out and send back in online or over the phone that indicates how many jobs an employer has added or subtracted. When I worked in payroll for 13 years we got those reports to fill out. They're due by the end of the month but sometimes I'd be busy and have to send them in late. So that's how you can adjust the reports upwards.
ReplyDeleteI have both a (private) "C" corp and an "S" corp, and I've NEVER filled out a Labor Dept survey. If they only rely on Fortune 500 companies, and skip over us small employers, no wonder their numbers are a farce.
DeleteI didn't work for a Fortune 500 company either. I'm sure there's some formula they use.
DeleteAll I know is everywhere I go I see help wanted signs. There's lots of work for those refusing to wait for hand outs.
ReplyDeleteSomeone who is statistically savvy answer me this: Statistics often depends on algorithms, right? What happens if their algorithms are flawed? Yes, it happens, and sometimes with catastrophic results. Think back to the years 2000-2008. That's when the financial interests...banks, insurers, brokerages, etc...needed the rating companies to sign off on their new products, but they (Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch's) didn't know how to rate the new mortgage backed derivatives. They were new and had never been examined before, so they made up new algorithms to statistically know if a package of mortgages was "investor grade" or not. They all (?) were given a thumbs up, and the world nearly went over the edge. It was thaaaaaat close to being another full-fledged depression. My point: algorithms, statistics, and statisticians are on my "don't turn your back on them" list. They're about as trustworthy as the auditors who signed off on Madoff's interests, Worldcom, Enron, and others. Statistics, like financial audits, where auditors are allowed leeway to issue "opinions", can be manipulated to say pretty much whatever you want them to say.
ReplyDeleteI remember the Reagan years, when the economy was supposedly going gangbusters and Reagan talked about the 200,000 jobs that had been created on month. Should I believe that, because my husband and I worked five of those jobs? Just our dumb luck we were just able to scrape by. But yeah, statistics.
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