I've studied this mess in Syria for a long time now and what I've learned is that it is, even though the diplomats won't say it out loud, a giant "cluster fuck". You really need a program to figure out who are the bad guys and who are the....umm....badder guys.
We seem to think of those involved as the guys in the black hats vs the guys in the white hats, and of course we're for the guys in the white hats. But there really are no white hats. The black hat guys are definitely Syrian dictator Turd al Assad and his allies Russia, Iran and the Hezbollah militia Iran sponsors. Then the....let's call them the very dirty gray hat guys....are the "rebels". Except there is no one united rebel group, but instead a bunch of other a-holes who sometimes fight against Assad & Friends whenever they aren't fighting each other.
According to this BBC article from several years ago there were no less than 20 different groups fighting in Syria. Since then Russia and Turkey have gotten involved, too. And lets not forget, what we today know as ISIS began as one of those rebel groups fighting Assad. Are one of these other rebel sub-groups likely to be the Son of ISIS next year? If we side with one or even a few of these groups, we'll just piss off the others. It's like a giant, never ending game of whack-a-mole.
I personally have no problem with Prez Trump striking the Syrian airfield last week as punishment for them using internationally outlawed chemical weapons. But for those who want us to get more involved I must ask, what's the desired outcome? If it's to see Turd al Assad abdicate his dictatorship, who's going to replace him? Will he be any better than Assad was? Will he be able to pull his opponents together in a big coalition for the benefit of all the Syrian people? Haha! Don't hold your breath. Look for more of the same, or even worse. The age-old tribes and sects there are just born to fight....they're hopelessly savage. And the poor, average Syrian family is just caught in the crossfire. :(
The one thing I hope we've learned is that RUSSIA CAN NOT BE TRUSTED TO KEEP ITS WORD. Russia's Putin brokered an agreement 4 (?) years ago whereby they would see to it Assad turned over ALL their chemical weapons. Russia / Putin lied! They made a good show of it, but they DIDN'T disarm the Syrians of their chemical weapons. There is no way Turd al Assad would have disobeyed his Russian benefactors....they're the only reason he's avoided being lynched....and used chem weapons without Putin's knowledge.
Ronald Reagan got it right 30 years ago when, speaking of the Russians, he said, "Trust, but verify." Today Russia has shown that they can hide from us anything they want, therefore there is no sense even pretending to trust them.
Regarding Russia and Syria today, we simply can't trust these war criminals to police each other.
S
Yes. It's a cluster f#$k there right now. I don't expect it to get better any time soon. Trump just scattered the cockroaches, not even shutting down that airfield. We got nothing for our million dollar missiles.
ReplyDeleteI really don't think the goal was to shut down the airfield. I think it was to give the Syrians, and maybe the Iranians and N Koreans, too, a warning. If we'd wanted to shut down the airfield we could have, with little additional effort.
DeleteTrust, but verify. Sounds like a good plan for all of life!
ReplyDeleteWhat ever we do in the Mid-East will be wrong. The question is, action, no action, which will be the least wrong.
ReplyDeleteAnd the situation with North Korea and the U.S. is even worse. As SWMBO commented this morning, "We've got two crazy men threatening each other! They'd better shut up."
ReplyDeleteI'm glad I don't have to figure out the least bad solution to this mess...
ReplyDelete