Just pokin' the bear....

Later this week President Donald Trump will meet one-on-one with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at the G20 summit in Germany.  Putin has over the past two decades proven to be a master geopolitical manipulator.  He managed to take over a run-down, disastrously managed piece of real estate and then bluffed his way onto the Big Stage.  

Let's be honest for a moment....Russia is just a second-rate conventional power, with a nuclear arsenal they won't dare use.  Putin understands "Mutually Assured Destruction" as well as Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev, and Gorbachev before him did.

At one time Putin had considerable leverage over Europe by threatening to withhold from them Russian natural gas shipments.  Europe has wisely worked around that threat and has in fact grown a pretty impressive backbone, led by Germany's Angela Merkel.   Growing up in Communist East Germany, she knows full well the evil reach of the Russian bear.  Even the new French President, Emmanuel "Pretty Boy" Macron, has shown he's willing to stand up to Putin.

After Putin blatantly sent his forces into Ukraine and seized the Crimean peninsula, the supposedly limp-wristed Barack Obama joined our European allies and others to put crippling economic sanctions on Russia.  And after Putin's people were caught red-handed cyber-messing with the US, Obama again bitch-slapped him by seizing two Russian-owned compounds in America and sending home a planeload of Russian "diplomats".

Meanwhile, back in America, President Trump is reportedly paying scant attention to anything "Russia" when the topic comes up in his regular security briefings, infuriating all our intelligence chiefs who know full well of the growing Russian mischief.  Trump has zero knowledge of and zero interest in learning anything about geopolitics.  For 71 years his interest has been in making money, not practicing international relations, and it looks like he isn't going to change his ways now.

Putin will be coming into the G20 meeting with guns blazing.  He will reportedly be demanding the two properties back in America, and will be wanting a rollback of the earlier economic sanctions imposed on his Russia.  Our European allies are standing pretty firm against giving Putin a second chance.  They for good reason don't trust him....he's in their back yard!

All eyes at the G20 will be on Donald Trump's response.  Will the leader of the most powerful economic and military power in the history of the world stand firm with Merkel and Macron and the rest of Europe, or will he cave to Putin?  Which begs the question:  If he caves, why?  What incriminating evidence does Putin have on Trump?  

The infamous "dossier" compiled by a former British MI6 agent, the basis for a special investigation now underway by Robert Mueller, suggests the Russians have compromising sexual or financial material on him.  Trump of course denies it all.  I predict that if Donald Trump caves, the dossier conspiracy theorists will gain immense credibility.

If Trump is scared to call out Putin for the gangster he is, I'm not.  My blog pageviews from Russia have already shot through the roof.  I'm apparently already a burr under somebody's* saddle there, and I'm loving it!

S

* Probably a computer algorithm keeping track of negative comments about Mother Russia.

LATE EDIT:  This on Yahoo News this morning...

Exciting times we live in!

Is "covfefe" President Trump's vision for America?

Strategy is an overall, general plan to get us from where we are to where we want to be.  Tactics are the specific zigs and zags and actions needed in order to get there.

Leaders have goals that (often) come to fruition after strategies and tactics are developed and executed.  Lincoln preserved the Union, FDR (and allies) defeated Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, Reagan saw the US prevail over the USSR, etc.  Can someone please tell me what President Trump's goals are?  Where does he see America's place in the world?  Does he have a strategy to get us there?

During his campaign he said he wanted to repeal/replace ObamaCare.  It appears doubtful that he can pull that off.  He promised a big tax cut.  To do that he needed to slash spending (which meant a new, cheaper healthcare plan), but his proposed budget cuts will likely hurt too many constituencies to get through Congress.  

He promised more jobs, saying those would come when his (now DOA) tax cuts spurred the economy.  All of his announced goals seem to be interdependent, and so far none of the pieces have fallen into place.  This while his party controls both houses of Congress.  That may not last much longer.

Internationally, President Trump seems to have some sort of fascination with Russia, while our closest traditional allies are circling their wagons in response to Russia's increased aggressiveness.  He seems to have something he wants to convey to the Russians, as evidenced by his Attorney General, his son-in-law, and his disgraced National Security Adviser all making clandestine contacts.  For some reason he doesn't want our own intelligence agencies to know what it is he wants to convey, yet wants to use encrypted Russian communications sources to convey it, which are completely compromised.  What gives?  What is his end game?

President Trump has publicly chastised many NATO members for not contributing more.  While that case can be made, there are discrete diplomatic channels that could have been used to make his argument.  Now, feeling humiliated, our NATO allies are taking one step back from us.  Germany's Angela Merkel has gone so far as to say Europe can't depend on us like they once could, and France's President Macron has said he won't obediently fall in line, either.  And now it looks like President Trump will pull the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement, joining Nicaragua and Syria as the only other environmental pariah.  How can we be leaders if we're increasingly self-isolating ourselves?

It seems like President Trump has metaphorically done little more than bounce little steel balls around inside a pinball machine, hoping something good will happen.  So far all he has to show for it is a big TILT!  How long can this go on?  Show us his vision and a strategy to "Make America Great Again".  If he has one, it's incoherent.

S