Just pokin' the bear....

Later this week President Donald Trump will meet one-on-one with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at the G20 summit in Germany.  Putin has over the past two decades proven to be a master geopolitical manipulator.  He managed to take over a run-down, disastrously managed piece of real estate and then bluffed his way onto the Big Stage.  

Let's be honest for a moment....Russia is just a second-rate conventional power, with a nuclear arsenal they won't dare use.  Putin understands "Mutually Assured Destruction" as well as Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev, and Gorbachev before him did.

At one time Putin had considerable leverage over Europe by threatening to withhold from them Russian natural gas shipments.  Europe has wisely worked around that threat and has in fact grown a pretty impressive backbone, led by Germany's Angela Merkel.   Growing up in Communist East Germany, she knows full well the evil reach of the Russian bear.  Even the new French President, Emmanuel "Pretty Boy" Macron, has shown he's willing to stand up to Putin.

After Putin blatantly sent his forces into Ukraine and seized the Crimean peninsula, the supposedly limp-wristed Barack Obama joined our European allies and others to put crippling economic sanctions on Russia.  And after Putin's people were caught red-handed cyber-messing with the US, Obama again bitch-slapped him by seizing two Russian-owned compounds in America and sending home a planeload of Russian "diplomats".

Meanwhile, back in America, President Trump is reportedly paying scant attention to anything "Russia" when the topic comes up in his regular security briefings, infuriating all our intelligence chiefs who know full well of the growing Russian mischief.  Trump has zero knowledge of and zero interest in learning anything about geopolitics.  For 71 years his interest has been in making money, not practicing international relations, and it looks like he isn't going to change his ways now.

Putin will be coming into the G20 meeting with guns blazing.  He will reportedly be demanding the two properties back in America, and will be wanting a rollback of the earlier economic sanctions imposed on his Russia.  Our European allies are standing pretty firm against giving Putin a second chance.  They for good reason don't trust him....he's in their back yard!

All eyes at the G20 will be on Donald Trump's response.  Will the leader of the most powerful economic and military power in the history of the world stand firm with Merkel and Macron and the rest of Europe, or will he cave to Putin?  Which begs the question:  If he caves, why?  What incriminating evidence does Putin have on Trump?  

The infamous "dossier" compiled by a former British MI6 agent, the basis for a special investigation now underway by Robert Mueller, suggests the Russians have compromising sexual or financial material on him.  Trump of course denies it all.  I predict that if Donald Trump caves, the dossier conspiracy theorists will gain immense credibility.

If Trump is scared to call out Putin for the gangster he is, I'm not.  My blog pageviews from Russia have already shot through the roof.  I'm apparently already a burr under somebody's* saddle there, and I'm loving it!

S

* Probably a computer algorithm keeping track of negative comments about Mother Russia.

LATE EDIT:  This on Yahoo News this morning...

Exciting times we live in!

Heads they win, tails we lose

Have you heard the story of the family who "won" tickets to a super-popular concert, only to come home afterwards to find that thieves had backed up a truck to their house and hauled off everything they owned?  They'd been "played", big time!

That's what is happening right now to America.  Prez Trump has taken us all on a world-class election experience, but now we're back home looking around and finding that we've been picked clean by Russian strongman Vladimir "Pootie Poo" Putin.  He's playing us.

"The Donald" Trump has had his feet propped up on the Oval Office desk for less than a month now, but has spent all his time so far, except to tweet something about a North Korean missile launch, dealing with his Executive Order boo boo, his ongoing fight with the courts, his obsession with 3 million (invisible) illegal voters, trying to get some of his dud cabinet choices....think Sec Ed DeVos and that burger flipping (Hardee's CEO) Puzder guy....past the Senate, and now dealing with the Mess Formerly Known As General Mike Flynn.  LOOK....OVER THERE!   

Meanwhile Pootie Poo is running amok, doing pretty much whatever he wants around the world.

Read my finger!

Russia today has no intention of vacating Crimea, and is in fact ramping up their efforts to destabilize Ukraine further.  Russia has successfully propped up its Syrian puppet Assad, while leaving the fight to defeat ISIS essentially to the rest of us.  He has strengthened his ties with Iran, even setting them up with a state-of-the-art air defense system.  

Meanwhile the Iranians are harassing the US and others in the Persian Gulf, funding the Houthi rebels in Yemen to the detriment of our ally (?) Saudi Arabia, yada yada, all while receiving a wink and a nod from Putin.  The Russians have also installed nuclear-capable cruise missiles in Kaliningrad (Russian property sandwiched between Poland and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) in violation of our nuclear arms treaty dating back to the 1980's.  In response, I'm not even sure Trump withheld his Valentine card to his good buddy Putin.

Buoyed by their successful tampering with our recent elections, the Russians are now actively attempting the same in the upcoming elections in France, Germany, and elsewhere in Europe.  And Putin's response:  "Nope, wasn't me.  I've been busy scraping my mother's bunions."   

And we just say, "Well, OK then.  Sorry to bother you.  Yuck, yuck."

The European Union is trying to NOT become the next Humpty Dumpty, and NATO is wondering if the US has their back (and their front, too).  Advantage Pootie Poo.  The Russians even have an intelligence gathering ship parked off our East Coast (which probably happens more often than is reported).

Can you name for me one place in the world where Russia is not working overtime trying to put the screws to us?  We have become backbone-less.  

All the while, President Trump is furious that his man Flynn was caught telling the Rooskies to not worry about the sanctions we have in place against them, but not by the fact that he did it!  He seems to love leaks when they help him, but blows a fuse when they go against him.  Hello, goose / gander?

Republicans are no more going to go after Flynn than the Democrats went after Hillary over Benghazi or her emails.  The American people's interest, and perhaps even their security, seems to matter less to our politicians than preserving their own power and privilege.  *sigh*
  
S


 

Point / Counterpoint

The West, led by the United States, as well as Israel and most of the UN, are dead set against Iran developing nuclear weapons.  Of course we are.  Iran's leaders don't seem to think the way we in the West do.  They see sacrificing a few million of their own people in a counter-strike in order to wipe out Israel a fair trade.  Their idea of "national pride" is near suicidal.  The same goes for North Korea.

But what right do we have in telling them they can't pursue a nuclear program?  How can one sovereign nation, or group of nations, tell another sovereign nation what they can do internally?  As long as they don't use their nukes against others, shouldn't that be their right to have them?

It would be like the OPEC nations prohibiting the US from pursuing hydraulic fracturing to recover more domestic oil.  Of course it would be against their national interests for us to do so, but they don't have the right to prohibit us from doing it.

Seems to me we are just throwing international law out the window here.  That said, this is one area where I think Civil Disobedience is justified.

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The US and Europe are also all bent out of shape over Russia's incursion into Ukraine and their annexation of the Crimean peninsula.  It just seems like a land grab, much like what Nazi Germany did when they took over Austria and Czechoslovakia prior to WWII.  That's how we see it at least.

But the Russian psyche is much different than ours.  They have a long memory and remember how they have been invaded repeatedly from the west.  That's why after WWII they set up all their Commie proxies....E Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungry, etc....between Western Europe (read: NATO) and themselves.  

If the West attacked again, they could devastate those proxy countries before they reached The Motherland.  At least that was their plan.  Now with many of their former Warsaw Pact allies (?) actually part of NATO, and right on their border at that, they are super antsy. 

When Russia saw the overt courtship going on between the West and Ukraine, they no doubt saw full-fledged European Union and NATO membership for Ukraine on the horizon.  Their already tightly wound paranoia snapped.  I think we were a bit too "bull-in-a-china-closet"-ish.  Now it's gonna be difficult if not impossible to get that genie back into the bottle. 

As I see it, here's our dilemma:  We need to punish and marginalize Russia for their actions without actually pushing them over the edge (letting the Russian Federation dissolve).  

Remember what happened the last time we took down evil (Iraq, Libya, and soon Syria)?  What we got was dramatically more dangerous than what we dismantled. Of course we (the West) could collectively take Russia down, but would that necessarily be a smart thing to do?

S

Now you see it....now you don't

 I love weather....nothing destructive of course, but just lots of lightning, thunder, and rain coming down in sheets.  Saturday evening I was like a kid on Christmas morning when a line of heavy thunderstorms rolled through.

In Texas, more often than not these storms come through in long, narrow north/south bands moving from west to east.  It will storm wildly for half an hour, then....it's over.  Just like that.

I was impressed by this "supersonic goose" flying in from the northwest.  It looks like it has its wings swept back like an F-14.

And then, pretty much as fast as it blew in....

....it was gone.

(Full disclosure: these beautiful photos were taken by K. :)  

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My Deep Thought for the week:

These are interesting times we live in.  I've always enjoyed studying international relations.  It's like a giant chess game:  The smart players plan many moves ahead instead of just reacting to the last move of their opponent.  

 

Oops!

Yesterday Vladimir Putin made another move towards "check".  The people of Crimea voted to join Russia, and of course Russia will immediately accept.  Then they will no longer be an "occupier"; Crimea will be an integral part of the Russian Federation.

Shortly the ethnic majority in eastern Ukraine, also Russian speaking, will start down that same road.  Those regions will sooner rather than later demand an election, the conclusion forgone, and Russian troops currently sitting just across their common border will move in to "protect" them.

The US, EU, and NATO will sit on their hands as usual while all this happens.  They have the ability to act, but lack the will to do anything.  Which is just as well since those regions mean more to Russia than they do to the West, and any efforts to intercede would be doomed from the get-go.

Fortunately for the West that will be as far as it goes.  Any attempt by Russia to take over the rest of Ukraine would be received much the same as the treatment the Rooskies and the US experienced in Afghanistan....there would be a guerrilla behind every rock, something they can't afford.

I'm sure Russia would like to regain control of their former Baltic republics, but they are now integrated as full members of NATO and the European Union, and the West probably would get physically involved there if push came to shove.

That's my prediction.  Let's see if I read it right or not.  And If it turns out I did read it right, that begs the question, if dumb s__t little me sitting here in Frisco, TX can figure it out, why can't those overpaid gubment weenies in Washington figure it out, too?  Why are they always caught flat footed?

S

It's like losing a bet all over again watching the instant replay. DUH!

Every night the news is filled with the latest efforts of US SecState Kerry and other world diplomats as they try to start talks with Vladimir "Pootie Pooh" Putin on securing the return of Crimea back to Ukraine.

 

Look...a booger!

These people must be a very special variety of stupid!  Russia now "owns" Crimea, its troops are dug in, and it isn't going anywhere.  And we can't make it.  We need to quit beating our heads against the wall and face it.

Trouble is, this is the first....the second actually after Russia's little foray into Georgia back in '08....of many upcoming moves by Putin to reconstitute Russia's old empire. He telegraphed it back in 2012 upon his return to power as President.

At that time he told Russian industry / banking leaders (the oligarchs) "Owning assets outside Russia makes you too vulnerable to moves by foreign governments.  It's time to bring your wealth home."  Hello!  He wanted to make Russia "sanction proof".  This whole Crimean crisis, and the ones soon to come, are all premeditated.

Pootie Pooh is an unreconstructed KGBer.  All he knows how to do is step on people's throat to get them to do what he wants.  He once declared the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geo-political catastrophy of the 20th Century.  He wants Russia's empire back.  

All the former USSR republics are now on notice....close ranks with Russia and you'll be left alone.  Step out of line and there can always be excuses found to invade "for the good of the people."  *Ha!  He cracks me up some times!*

We really should make a game of this.  "Who will be he next two-bit Russian neighbor to feel Putin's wrath?"  There's money to be made here Vegas!

S

More Kelly-isms, and some trivia, too

ME:  You wanna go out for dinner tonight?

K:  I like food cooked by other people.

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ME:  What's the matter?  You look frazzled.

K:  Sometimes being me is complicated.

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ME:  Why don't you want that bag of old shoes?

 K:  If you stop wearing flip-flops your feet reject them forever.

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Do you remember reading Alfred, Lord Tennyson's The Charge Of The Light Brigade?  It was a poem about a near suicidal British mounted cavalry charge directly at Russian artillery during the Battle of Balaclava in 1853.  Seems that due to faulty communications the Brits thought they were charging after a fleeing Russian unit, not one dug in and ready to fight.  Oops.

"Forward, the Light Brigade!"

Was there a man dismay'd?

Not tho' the soldier knew

Someone had blunder'd:

Theirs not to make reply,

Theirs not to reason why,

Theirs but to do and die:

Into the Valley of Death

Rode the six hundred.

The "Valley of Death" mentioned in the poem is a real place located near the modern day city of Sevastopol, and the conflict was the Crimean War, 1853-1856.  Crimea....sound familiar?

The highest military honor the British can bestow is the Victoria Cross, comparable to the US Medal of Honor.

The traditional story has it that to this day the brass used to make the Victoria Cross is made from actual Russian cannon captured by the British at The Siege of Sevastopol.  

There is some doubt today about the country of origin of those Russian cannon, but being a romantic I'm gonna stick with tradition. 

Now you know.  :)

S

Would you buy a used car from this man?

His official title might read, "Vladimir Putin, President of Russia", but his job description is much less grandiose.  He's a thug, the most powerful thug in a country run by thugs.  And he's a liar, someone utterly without morals.  

Vladimir Putin cannot be trusted, ever.  Whatever words come out of his mouth are uttered only to serve his interests, period.  He will die with an unrepentant Communist-era KGB mind set. 

If you'll look back at my blog post of February 20th I predicted that the unrest in Ukraine would not end well.  Putin absolutely will NOT let the Ukraine slip from his virtual control, and let's not kid ourselves, that's exactly what he had before former Ukrainian President Yanukovych was ousted.  Putin sneezed, "Yank-man" caught the cold.

Now Putin has flat-out invaded the Crimean peninsula, a region of southern Ukraine where Russia still maintains a naval base.  Russian forces quietly strolled out of that base and took over the region's airports, then began airlifting in an estimated 6,000 additional troops. And if he wants to take a bigger bite out of Ukraine, there's nothing stopping him.

This from a "world leader" who not long ago warned the West that they must, MUST respect the sovereignty of sleaze-states such as Iran and Syria, regardless of how evil they might be.  No exceptions!  ROFLMAO!

And there isn't a damn thing we....the US, the EU, or NATO....can do about it.  The West no longer has any real deterrent options left open to them. 

"But....but....we have all these planes and tanks and ships and NUCLEAR WEAPONS for God's sake!"  Yes, but those are no longer deterrents.

To "deter" someone from doing something you must have THE MEANS to stop them and THE WILL to use it.  As mentioned, we have the means, but we will absolutely NOT use it.  

And Vladimir Putin knows it.  No modern democracy can will compete toe-to-toe with a dictator on ruthlessness.  It's just no longer part of our national DNA.

"There will be consequences for Russia's invasion," Washington says.  How so?  American businesses are conducting lucrative trade with Russia and aren't going to give it up.  (Money talks, and all that, you know.)  

Meaningful economic sanctions are out of the question.  A pin prick here and there maybe, but Putin will just laugh those off.  We have our hands full militarily just trying to smoke out a few nasty heathens in Afghanistan.  

And to make matters worse, energy-poor Europe needs Russian natural gas. A simple twist of a few pipeline valves and Europe will be freezing before nightfall.  Europe is in no position to do anything punitive.

Europe and America might bluster, but that's all for domestic consumption.  Practically speaking, Putin knows we're toothless. 

"Then that august body, The United Nations, will step up and exert world pressure on Russia, right?" Once again, ROFLMAO! 

You are witnessing the opening salvo of Cold War 2.0, and so far the home team isn't doing so good.

S

PS:  And please don't point fingers at one political party or another or any single president and say "it's all their fault."  This situation has been festering for decades.