Battle Of The Bullies

I, along with my fellow international relations scholar, Jax the Wonder Dog, recently sat down and put together our list of the three biggest bullies on the international scene today.  Here are our finalists:

North Korea's Kim Jong Un

Coming in at third place is Kim Jong Un.  He has been trying hard since his elevation to power back in 2011 to prove he is a worthy successor to his late father and grandfather, the two previous dictators of North Korea. They have all tried to elevate themselves onto the world stage by becoming a nuclear power, but it appears KJU is now on the cusp of actually succeeding.  

His spoiled-rich-kid's temperament has until now been to run his mouth, threatening to rain death and destruction down on America with his new toys.  He might, however, be thinking twice as President Donald Trump seems to be calling his bluff.  Between the economic sanctions we have against his country and what the Chinese have piled on with, too, not to mention the US 7th Fleet parked off his coast, he may soon be down to eating tree bark like the rest of his countrymen.  In his upcoming summit with Trump he might try to dance and shuffle a bit hoping to save a little face, but Jax and I think KJU will eventually have to retreat with his tail tucked.

President Donald Trump

Coming in with a solid second place showing is Donald Trump.  Donnie John has been oozin' for a brusin' since the day his former lawyer, the legendary Mafia consigliere Roy Cohen, taught him to Attack, Attack, Attack!  He, of course, didn't himself actually attack, but his lawyers and bodyguards did on his behalf.  Now he has Twitter that enables him to mouth off, and a Department of Defense to back him up as he recently showed by rearranging the debris formerly known as Syria.

That was likely enough to convince Kim Jong Un Trump could both talk and walk and scare him back into his hole.  Likewise, Trump's strutting to date will likely bring the pragmatic Chi Coms to the bargaining table to conclude some sort of new trade agreement with America.  (They have too many warehouses full of cheap junk they need to unload.)

Russian President For Life Vladimir Putin

And now, after serious deliberation, our 2018 World Champion Bully Award goes to *drum roll* Vladimir Putin!  That's right, rootin' tootin' Vladimir Putin backs down all opponents and detractors by forcing them to break eye contact, rigging elections, and as a last resort, dropping errant journalists who dare say mean things about him from their 5th floor balconies. 

If Vladimir Putin demands your lunch money, you'd better give it up!

Putin is an old school KGB street brawler, and the streets of Moscow and St Petersburg are tougher than those in New York or Washington.  He has the gumption, the muscle, hookers with hidden cameras, and the willingness to use them all, and that makes unblinkable Vladimir Putin once again the World's Biggest Bully.

S

 

Hmmm....what's this button do?

I just watched this fascinating 14 minute HBO film that explains in layman's terms how the world of cyber warfare works, what it can do, and how vulnerable we might be:

It's from the perspective of the Israeli cyber security industry, one of the most advanced in the world.  (I built a home for a family, the guy being a cyber security expert...Naval Academy graduate...super smart...who works here in the US for an Israeli company, so I already knew bits and pieces of this.)  

The video shows how a hacker can take control of your car when you're driving and cause you to crash.  It shows how, with a laptop keystroke, a hacker can shut down the pumps in our water supply system or sewage treatment plants.  Ditto for our power grid.  Not everything at once, but selected here and there, at their discretion.  Can you imagine how disruptive this would be to our economy?  OMG!  And all those infrastructure controls might already be infected, just waiting for the command to activate.  They're always attacking, we're always reacting.  Not a good position to be in!

So who are these hackers?  They most likely are Russian, or Chinese, or North Korean, or Iranian, but they could also be freelancers working for the highest bidder.  It's like we're living in the 21st Century Wild West!  What they conveniently don't discuss is what the US, or the UK, or France or Germany, etc, is capable of doing to them.  Which brings me back to Israel.  Why don't we hire them, or collaborate with them (hopefully we already are), to "take care" of the Iranian mischief makers?   And the North Korean's whose expertise is behind the Iranians?

It seems to me the days of massive standing militaries are waning, just like the days of sailing ships gave way to steam and nuclear power, horses to tanks, and catapults to cannon.  We can attack an adversary, or be attacked by an adversary, without ever firing a shot.

Are we screwed?  Is it too late already?  Probably not.  We just need to make sure that our (Western) educational systems cultivate the best and brightest minds in the world to defend "us" and stay one step ahead of "them". And be grateful Israel is our friend, and do all we can to assist them and keep them our friend.

I know reading blog or Facebook or Instagram posts about puppies or butterflies or casserole recipes is more entertaining, but this is pretty fascinating, too.  Please watch it and leave me your comments.

S

What's this button do?

North Korea tried Saturday to launch a ballistic missile, and just like their last test attempt, it also failed.  Crashed and burned big time, it did.  The question now is WHY?  Was it simply a case of inferior engineering, or something else?  Sunday the former British Foreign Secretary suggested it was likely that a US cyber-attack was responsible for the North Korean missile's spectacular failure. 

We've heard for years now about other countries successful hacks / cyber attacks on American commercial and public interests.  Through all this I've been wondering, "What are we capable of doing to them?"  Of course, barring a security leak, we'll never know for sure.  But if science is truly on the cusp of being able to disable enormously expensive weapons systems with cyber commands from a dark, secure room somewhere, this could be a world "balance-of-power" game changer.

This potential new form of dominant warfare has far-ranging implications.  For many decades there have been only two true superpowers, the USSR / Russia and the US, with the US generally believed to have a considerable edge.  "Superpower" being defined as quantities and qualities of missiles, warheads, aircraft, submarines, tanks, etc.  Only a select few advanced countries could get into our very exclusive club.  

Now, with a relatively small financial investment, many smaller countries could soon find themselves in the Cyber Big Leagues.  Surely tiny Israel is there right now, joining the US, Russia, and China in the top tier.  Other potential members might include N Korea, S Korea, Japan, India, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and a few others you wouldn't think of as likely superstars.  

Can you imagine the challenges to traditional spheres of influence where former minor league players can demand and win concessions from today's superpowers?  Where most of today's massive aircraft carrier battle groups and nuclear-tipped missiles are made redundant?  Where warfare will be (even) more about electronic / digital measures and countermeasures than about the actual hardware?  Will today's heavyweights be able to gracefully and willingly share power?

For those who are today willing to appease the Tea Party's thirst for tax cuts at all costs, please think twice.  Cutting funding in the wrong places, such as in education, especially in the nerdy fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, would likely come back to haunt us in the not-too-distant future.  It's time to double-down on funding our future.  Cyber-nerds sitting at computer keyboards may not be as sexy as a fleet of stealth bombers, but they will likely someday be far more important to our national security.

Chew on that thought for a while.

S

The more things change, the more they stay the same

Back in the early days of the Cold War all us little kids were taught to dive under our school desks to shield ourselves from an incoming Commie nuclear attack.  (I'm still questioning the wisdom of letting little kids crawl all over lead-lined desks all day, but that's a topic for later.)  I'm sure this would have worked great so long as the Rooskies attacked between the hours of 8 am and 3:15 pm, and respected recess, lunch times, and summer vacations.

Things are different today.  First, the Russians are likely not our main existential threat.  Russia's Vladimir Putin no doubt remembers the concept of "Mutually Assured Destruction" or MAD, which meant both sides knew if they launched an attack on the other, they themselves would be vaporized in retaliation about five minutes later.  Putin may be an evil bully, but he isn't stupid.  He knows he can get what he wants via something virtually untraceable back to the Motherland:  cyber warfare. 

Nor is China a likely existential threat to America.  Their version of modern Communism....let's call it Communism Lite....likes making a profit, and we're their biggest customer.  We need to keep each other happy.  Neither of us has much to gain, but a tremendous amount to lose, by nuking the other.

Iran....they could be, likely WILL be an existential threat to us sooner rather than later.   Our nuclear deal with them of a few years ago was, in retrospect, a joke.  They're probably still laughing over how gullible we were.  Their radical Islamic leadership would probably be willing to write off a few million of their own people in exchange for poking an infidel in the eye.  The good news for us here in 'Merica is that Israel is geographically much closer and has vastly more to lose than we do, so before Iran can truly threaten us, Israel will....umm...."handle it".  *wink*

North Korea, however, is another matter.  Their people might be perpetually on the verge of starvation, but Kim Jong Un still lavishes money on his nuclear program.  I doubt he's concerned about a few million of his people being wiped out in a nuclear retaliatory strike....the MAD concept probably means nothing to him.  

Prez Trump thinks China can control them, but I have my doubts.  Even if China cuts N Korea off today, it's too late.   That train has already left the station.  China is probably thinking if they piss him off anger Kim Jong Un, he might someday lob a few nukes their direction, too, so they're tippy-toeing their way around "The Little Fat One" as well.  For the time being I'm not particularly worried about Crazy Kim hitting my zip code with an ICBM....he'd probably have a tough time even hitting Texas!  As a geopolitical junkie, I'll admit this one is going to be "interesting" to watch play out.

Have I missed anybody?   Is there anyone else you can think of that might have a nuke or two set aside with our name on it?  

And most importantly, now that you're an adult, do you have a Big Boy or Big Girl desk you can fit under?  ;)

S

Let's put some lipstick on this pig....

For years now we've heard about how our enemies were eating the USA alive via cyber-warfare.  They (N Korea, China, Iran, Russia, Russia, Russia) have been relentless in getting into every nook and cranny where we might hide our intellectual jewels.  They long ago mastered corporate espionage, stealing plans for everything we design and make.  And now they've hacked into our CIA, revealing our most sensitive national security secrets.  They say the most recent WikiLeaks information dump dwarfs anything Edward Snowden ever thought about handing over to the bad guys.

Throughout all this I've wondered, "So what are WE doing to THEM?  Surely we're not gonna just sit still while they bend us over?  Please tell me our nerds are better than their nerds."

Our nerds are better than their nerds.  

Our nerds long ago figured out how to hack into every TV, tablet, cell phone, hearing aid, picture frame, Viagra bottle, and toaster in the world.  Our spooks can listen in on every two-bit terrorist in the sandbox as he whispers sweet nothings into his camel's ear.  The night shift at CIA HQ probably makes prank phone calls to the Kremlin and makes it look like it's coming from Kim Jong Fatty Fat Fat's little pink princess phone on his nightstand.  Yes, we're THAT good!

Now the bad guys have figured out how to get into our secret stuff.  Scary, but at least I now know we have nerds that can go toe-to-toe with anyone, anywhere, anytime.   Game on!  More lipstick?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Republican's new health care plan, whatever they care to call it, has already crashed and burned.  They're just putting on a show to make it look like they're at least trying.  Besides Speaker Ryan and Donnie John Trump, virtually no one else wants to be seen anywhere near it.

The Tea Party says it doesn't cut deep enough, that there are still too many poor swine getting gubment freebees.  The Liberals say they aren't about to turn poor people away from getting life-saving healthcare they otherwise can't afford.  Libertarians say "no" to any further "entitlements".  The American  Medical Association and various hospital groups are against it because they say poor people will lose their insurance and will all show up in emergency rooms again demanding to be seen for free.  The Old Folks...er...AARP says its members can't afford premiums 5-times as expensive as the younguns, on and on.

The only ones who like it are the US Chamber of Commerce, because their members will save a buttload, and those making over $200,000 a year who will save an even bigger buttload.

Even lipstick isn't going to sell this wagon load of shit manure.

D....O....A

S

Ummm, don't look now, but....

I'd hate to be the one to burst your bubble regarding America's seeming military invincibility, so I'll just let you down gently by pointing out we have several military Achilles Heels.  I recently read an article that points them out which says, basically, that while we are no doubt immensely powerful, we are putting a lot of our eggs in several fragile baskets that we may not have a good grip on.  (You can read the article for yourself here.)

After WWI the world thought of France as one of the preeminent Continental powers, with a large army and navy, only to see it collapse like a house of cards after the Nazi's breached its vaunted Maginot Line in 1940.  The United States today, much like the French with their Maginot Line, puts much faith in just a handful of our weapons systems.  Without getting too geeky, here are our problem areas:

Supercarriers....we currently have 10 nuclear aircraft carriers able to project power around the world. They carry a powerful wallop, but they themselves are huge targets.  In fact, there have been several incidents recently when real-world friendly naval forces, acting as "adversaries", managed to get their (old, not very sophisticated) submarines close enough to an American carrier to shoot virtual torpedoes into it.  (Story here.)  

In other words, it's easier than you might think for a non-state-of-the-art submarine to put a few million-dollar torpedoes into a multi-BILLION dollar aircraft carrier and send it to the bottom of the ocean.  Due to the lack of a worthy adversary after the USSR collapsed in 1991, our anti-submarine warfare skills have noticeably declined.

Should we begin to de-emphasize our carriers, and accelerate building many more, and much more survivable, submarines of our own?  Are we depending on our carriers too much? 

Stealth aircraft....most people don't understand what "stealth" means.  The common perception is that a stealth aircraft is invisible.  NOT true!  Stealth means "low observable".  Instead of showing up on radar as a big aircraft, it shows up the size of a small bird.  It's hard to see, but you CAN see it.  And now our adversaries are developing (and I'm sure we are also) things like "passive radars" that can see stealth aircraft coming from miles away.  Our stealth fleet is still plenty impressive, but it's losing its aura of invincibility.

As much as I like the romanticized idea of a swaggering jet jockey sitting in the cockpit of a $100M+ aircraft, maybe we should consider buying many, many more smaller, simpler, and cheaper unmanned aircraft.  (Much of the complexity and cost of a manned aircraft is due to the need for "pilot survivability" components.)  Look at how well our unmanned, armed drones have done!  As with our carriers, are we depending too much on our "stealth" aircraft?

And finally, our "network-centric warfare" capability....we have developed a superb system linking in real time our command, control, communications, and computers (C4) with their land, air, and sea assets.  This means we can respond almost immediately with any or all of our forces in a highly-coordinated counter-attack.  The problem is, for this to work, everything must be connected, which is currently done through satellites in space. 

Now the Chinese have successfully launched an armed satellite-killer into space and destroyed one of their own to prove its viability, and the Russians have launched a satellite into orbit which they maneuvered into close proximity to one of our satellites, presumably as a test to see if they could get close enough to blow it up.  (They can.)  As our satellites are unarmed and cannot defend themselves, they're sitting ducks!

So maybe we should look carefully into developing weapons and systems that are simpler, cheaper, and more likely to survive an attack by    ?    .  We should study the history of the French Maginot Line carefully to make sure we haven't developed an American Maginot Line. 

We just might have outsmarted ourselves.

S  

Someone well above my pay grade is probably losing a lot of sleep

It seems that 17 separate intelligence services have connected the dots and deduced that Russia's Pootie-Poo Putin hacked the emails of the Democratic National Committee, Clinton campaign manager John Podesta, and no telling what all else.  I also seem to recall reading that the Germans, the French, and other European countries have reason to believe the Rooskies are meddling in their upcoming elections, too.  In response, just a few days ago Prez Obama said we will respond "at the time and place of our choosing."  Oh yeah?

Pay attention, folks....from low intensity email hacking to elaborate cyber-sabotage, this is the new face of warfare in the 21st Century.  For a surprisingly small investment, the US, or any country for that matter, can destroy any another country, regardless of how big or powerful they might be, without ever firing a shot.  Some geeks in a dark room with a few computers can pull off the [almost] perfect crime.  Actually I don't know if it could be done by just a few geeks or if it would take a small army of geeks, or whether it could be done using a few Dell's or HP's or requires a super computer, but it CAN be done. 

Remember back in 2010 when the US with Israeli help....or was it Israel with US help?....unleashed the Stuxnet virus on Iran's nuclear enrichment centrifuges and burned up a thousand or so of them?  Now think how far cyber-warfare has advanced in the time since.  The US and the Russians, and no doubt the Chinese, Koreans, Iranians, and a few other barely-out-of-Third-World-status countries, can electronically set each other back 50 years with just a few keystrokes, and it's virtually impossible to tell who the bad guy is.  Who do you strike back?

And here's where the West is especially vulnerable:  Virtually every home, school, business, factory, port, car, truck, bus, train, and plane in the advanced world is connected and at risk, while much of the rest of the world lacks our degree of technological sophistication.  We're simply a more target rich environment.

The Soviet Union collapsed when they had to choose between "guns or butter".  The government chose guns, while the people were desperate for butter.  The people won.  Today the choice isn't one or the other.  Even North Korea's Kim Jong Turd can wield power far beyond his two-bit dictator status.  While it's possible to bomb a nuclear weapons facility, or a missile launch site, or an airbase, how do you know which geek in what room is the one that needs a good spanking?

Interesting times, eh?  Stay tuned.  I'm pretty sure this is all Bill Gates fault.  ;)

S



 

Me? I thought YOU were driving?

Here I am once again with your weekly dose of boredom, unless you're a geopolitical junkie like me. Then you might find this interesting....scary even.  Based on all I've seen, heard, and read, we're on the very edge of a perfect storm, and not a good one.

Over the next few years things are going to happen all around the globe that could change us dramatically.  I base this on my world-wide reputation as a preeminent....OK, I couldn't sleep, so it was post this Stephen King-like horror story or eat ice cream.

Our world is now more inter-dependent than ever.  What happens in Vegas, or Beijing, or Tehran doesn't stay there anymore.  Here's what we could soon be seeing:

1.  The Mid East is in mid-collapse....fact.  Iraq, Syria, and a few other so called "sovereign nations" *snort* in the region will never be reconstructed.  They are fragmented beyond repair.  A working alliance is developing between Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey (all predominately Sunni Muslim) as well as....shhhh....Israel.  Their goal is to counter, take down even, Shia Muslim Iran.  Except Iran soon might have nukes, and may or may not be afraid to use them.  *gulp*
  
When the implosion finally comes, in whatever form it comes, some of us might be giddy happy....until we realize the real world consequences.  The global oil supply will be forever changed, and radical Muslims will scurry from there like rats fleeing a flooded sewer.  

As Europe gets 70-80% (?) of their energy from Russia and the Mid East combined (more on Russia later), they will be devastated.  The US, thanks to its newly energized oil production (fracking), will be somewhat spared....until the Europeans start bidding up the price of the rest of the world's oil.  Then it will impact us here, too.  We currently think we're swimming in oil world-wide, but if production tanks in the Mid East, that changes big time!  (You might think twice about the long-term wisdom of buying that giant gas guzzling truck/SUV.)

2.  Europe is screwed.  REALLY screwed!  In addition to their energy dilemma, the European Union (EU) is in its death throe.  The Euro as a monetary unit is not long for this world.  It is fatally flawed.  A common currency where each Euro zone country is counting on the others collectively to bail them out in a pinch (see Greece), yet has no say in how their errant cousins spend their money, is crazy.  If one stumbles, the others can motor along just fine, but if several go over the edge at the same time....YIKES!  (Would you give your kid a credit card, and guarantee their debts, with no strings attached?)

The wealthy northern Europeans resent the spendthrift southern Europeans, and if / when their economies hit the fan, it will be taps for the EU.  And the Biggest Loser will be Germany, and Germany pulls Europe's strings.  Dependent on others for most of their energy, and with 50% of their GNP derived from high-value exports, Germany will take a huge hit.  Europe will be "every man for himself", and we've seen how that often turns out.  

And do I even have to mention what is likely to happen when the social cost of taking in a million or more Middle Eastern refugees becomes apparent?  And since the Europeans have a rather dismal record of assimilating immigrants from other cultures, these new arrivals are likely to become restive and even violent, egged on by the embedded Muslim extremists / terrorists streaming in, too.  (But give the Europeans credit....most have their hearts in the right place at least.)

3.  China will wonder what hit them, too.  China's huge appetite for energy will see them dramatically retrench when the oil market wretches.  We tend to think of China as an economic behemoth, and it sorta is, but it's also a house of cards.  Their "stock market" is laughable.  It is HUGELY overvalued.  

Most of their companies (literally) are money losers kept afloat by their Sugar Daddy government, yet have P/E multiples in the stratosphere.  The Chinese right now are burning through their vault-full of surplus cash at an alarming rate, trying to buy time until they can fix things.  Which are they going to run out of first....time, or cash?  The ripples spreading out around the globe due to a stumbling China will be tough to contain.

And there are really two (Mainland) China's:  The industrial, gleaming, new, prosperous coastal China, and the still relatively backward interior.  The former gets much more generous treatment from their government, while their country cousins get short changed.  How long do you think THAT inequality will last when faced with a substantial economic meltdown?  Ouch!

4.  Russia....they're in denial.  They (their leadership at least) still like to think of themselves as a world power, but they aren't.  They're broke, and their economy is pretty much a one-trick pony (oil & gas).  If the collapse of the Mid East makes Russian oil suddenly more valuable....here's the scary part....they could be even MORE delusional.  The drunk bull will once again be stumbling around in the china closet.  And if they, for whatever reason, remain economically sickly, remember the old saying...."desperate people do desperate things."  Don't take your eye off them!

5.  South/Latin America is constantly on the verge of breaking out, but whenever they get close, they shoot themselves in the foot. There is no sign of anything changing there any time soon.  Same old same old.

6.  Africa is still resource rich....and still (likely forever?) dysfunctional.  No change there, either.

7.  North America (which includes the USA, for those who are geographically challenged :) will come through in much better shape, though we're not invulnerable.  We're both envied and scorned now for our often excessive / bully ways, and we will be even more so if we keep to our "my way or the highway" Tea Party / conservative attitude.  I am heartened, though, by the fact that many of our current crop of political candidates, D & R alike, are NOT the same old party hacks that we keep recycling, but genuinely new faces, even if one is Donald Trump's.  :)

We are much more energy sufficient than we were just a decade ago, yet if the rest of the world retrenches due to a Mid East in permanent collapse, we'll have foreigners wanting to buy OUR oil at prices that will hit us consumers hard in our wallets.  And with the world in a prolonged economic squeeze, we'll have fewer markets for our super-productive businesses to sell to.  We simply can't consume internally all we are capable of producing.  We'll likely see business closures, rising unemployment, and maybe even social unrest.  Then throw in a stagnant middle class, deteriorating race relations, etc....

8.  The environment is a changing.  We can argue about whether this change is man-made or just nature's natural cycle, but regardless, it's changing.  Colder winters, hotter summers, more severe droughts and floods....Mother Nature is pissed!  Her PMS may well change world-wide agricultural patterns.  Remember, hungry people are dangerous people.

When you put all the jigsaw puzzle pieces together, this is the picture on the box top.  If this scenario is correct, or even partially correct, we could be in for a rough ride.  Even if we get our house in order, we can still be blindsided by others around the world who are likely to be fighting for their lives.  Sometimes it seems like "globalism" is coming full circle to bite us, huh?

And if this scenario proves NOT to be correct, then it means all those think tanks, fancy-pants PhD analysts, and other assorted soothsayers I subscribe to were full of crap, so never mind.  ;)

S 

I'm not feelin' the love

Remember my recent post about the creeping anarchy I saw around the world?  I'm not so sure it's "creeping".  Seems to me it's about to break into a jog, if not a sprint.  Consider this:

Mid East meets West

Unless you live under a rock you'll know that the Mid East is currently in turmoil.  Really, really deep doo-doo, actually.  It's their normal state of affairs.  Literally millions of refugees have fled the wars in Syria and Iraq, and now are trying to escape the barbarism of ISIS, too.  Many hundreds of thousands have made their way to Europe, looking for a better, or at least safer, life.

According to EU rules, open borders theoretically allow those in any EU country to move freely around and into any other EU country.  This is now being challenged, and strained.  It's really a sad situation.  All these migrants want is to not be shot at, to work, to provide food for their families and a roof over their heads.  It's something we can all sympathize with. 

Here's the problem:  Germans, possibly because of their lingering national guilt due to their dark WWII-years, have been surprisingly accommodating to these refugees, while many other countries have not been.  Germany expects 900,000 to arrive just this year.  (To put this into context, it would be like 3,000,000 refugees arriving in the US in just one year.)  That's quite a social burden to take on.  Most of the rest of Europe can't or won't, and it's threatening the cohesion of Europe, such as it is. Yet the migrants keep coming.

Things are getting more tense and desperate by the day, which historically will lead to an eventual breaking point.  And every terrorist attack, such as the French train shooting a few weeks ago, strengthens the case of the anti-immigrant factions who see in every refugee a latent terrorist. 

So when is this breaking point going to be reached, and when it happens, what form will it take?   Beats me.  All I know is that the Europeans are being re-active, and not pro-active.  They fell behind the curve early and will probably never make up the lost ground....a situation that anarchists dream of.

Remember reading of those days when having big 'ol oceans around us kept us isolated from all those pesky foreign problems?  No more.  We're no longer immune from the wars in the Mid East, the stock market crash in China, or pollution originating anywhere in the world.  All those problems will find us, too, probably sooner rather than later. 

In retrospect, do you think maybe we should have left Iraq, and Libya, and Syria, and all the rest of that blighted region alone?  They were in a bad situation for sure, but are things any better today after all our meddling?  We were told the goal was to get the bad guys over there before they could get to us here, but I fear the opposite....we've only accelerated the process.  

Yes, I'm a political science nerd.  It's gonna be interesting (for me at least) to see how all this eventually shakes out.  Keep your powder dry.

S

Things aren't always what they seem....

Remember back in the 1980's when we were all scared to death of "Japan, Inc"?  This was when [it seemed as if] Japan was kicking our economic butts, they just seemed so unstoppable.  Our economy was stagnant while theirs was skyrocketing.  Then the 90's happened, Japan, Inc stumbled and fell crashed, and they entered their "lost decade".

Now we see the real Japan, warts and all.  Their population is actually shrinking (has been for years) so precipitously that the big industrial companies years ago began developing personal robots.

These aren't meant to weld cars together or assemble little electronic thingies, but to wait on people.  The expectation is that before long there will not be enough care givers left to look after Japan's elderly.  These robots are supposed to clean their houses, cook and serve their meals, and I suppose even keep them company.

I read an interesting article yesterday in The Guardian explaining Japan's dilemma:  Educated Japanese women today don't want to give up their careers / independence, and Japanese men no longer feel economically secure enough to provide for a family.  (Women who continue to work after marriage are called "devil wives".  Ouch!)  Therefore many just forgo romantic involvement / marriage all together.

Apparently Japanese employers assume a female employee will immediately start having kids after marriage, so they kill off their careers.  And with "lifetime employment" agreements between companies and employees going the way of the Dodo bird, many men are scared they won't be able to provide for a wife and kids.  Many never marry at all, and a sizable number still live in mama's basement (for real).

Quite a fall from the heady days of Japan, Inc, huh?

This morning on the news they showed pictures of the worst smog I think I've ever seen.  It was in China, and was so bad (5x the level considered "unhealthy") you couldn't see across the street.  They also supposedly have a looming catastrophic water shortage, a "house of cards" banking system, and an increasingly restless rural population yearning to enjoy "the good life" like their city cousins.  

We always hear about their exploding economy, but rarely about these kinds of crushing problems just below the surface.  I wonder if we'll be looking back on "China, Inc" 20/30 years from now and wonder what all the fuss was about?

Perhaps so, assuming we can get our s__t back together by then, too.  I'm thinking the recent slap-down of the Tea Party was a step in the right direction.  Now we can take a good, hard, realistic look at where we are and where we need to go, without having to listen to the demagoguery of nut cases like Sen. Ted Cruz.  *back in your hole, Ted*

S

So who died and made the UN King?

Here's something I just don't understand:  The United States along with much of the rest of the world is all up in arms because Iran and North Korea* are developing nuclear weapons.  I certainly understand why we don't want them to have nuclear tipped spears....the leadership of both countries are f__king nut cases.  OK, that might be unfair.  They might be totally rational and just have sinister regional ambitions.  I dunno.

Here's where I get lost....the world is hammering them because they have ignored a UN mandate that they cease pursuing their nuclear ambitions.  Since when does the UN have the right to unilaterally tell a sovereign nation what they can and cannot do?  

If the UN votes to tell the United States they must stop pursing the production of oil and natural gas via hydraulic fracturing, for example, because the rapid increase in worldwide oil/gas supply this would cause would upset the decades-old energy-producing status quo, would we be obligated to just say, "OK, whatever you say UN.  We'll stop.  You da boss,"?

If we didn't would the world be justified in saying they would boycott everything American, and if any country didn't support their boycott they would be in some way punished, too?  

I understand this particular scenario can't happen as long as the US has a UN Security Council veto, but still it bothers me that this international body with a....let's face it....rather lackluster record can just dictate what they will and won't allow.  Who died and made them King?  Any time they actually do anything it's the US that does 90% of it.  They write checks, then expects the US to cash them.

I would much prefer to see a multinational network of economic inter-dependency as the "carrot" one country or group of countries could use to get an errant state back in line vs a unilateral edict from the UN.  "Sugar catches more flies than vinegar."

Don't you think military conflict between the US and China is greatly reduced now that we do so much business with each other?  Why would you want to blow up your biggest customer?

Counterpoint anyone?

S

*N. Korea just today had another successful underground nuclear test.

Where was this advice when we needed it?

Today would be a good day to be a wedding planner in China.  The BBC reports there is a wedding boom in China today because "4 January 2013" in Mandarin sounds similar to "I'll love you all my life."  

I think it might be advisable for anyone planning marriage to research which date sounds like "I'm gonna make your life a living hell!" and plan accordingly. 

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Heard on Duck Dynasty:  "It's OK to be creepy if you're old."

Finally.  I've waited my whole life for this!

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"Meggings".  Really?  Why?

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First our gubment outlawed further manufacture of old fashioned incandescent light bulbs, mandating compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFL's) instead because they're more energy efficient. Now we learn that these CFL bulbs are dangerous, possibly causing skin cancer.  It seems they emit ultraviolet rays so strong they can burn skin and skin cells.

In every bulb scientists tested they found the protective coating around the light creating "phosphor" was cracked, allowing dangerous ultraviolet rays to escape.  They're advising us to stay at least two feet away from the bulbs when they're in use.  

Sheesh!  I go outside and I get skin cancer.  Now I stay inside and still get skin cancer.  I can't buy a break!

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I was sure that Speaker of the House John Boehner, aka "Boner" would not be re-elected to that post by the new House sworn in yesterday, but DOH!....he was, with just 5 votes to spare. This tepid support makes him pretty "toothless".  He's being likened to a cemetery superintendent....he has a lot of people under him, but no one is listening.  

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The December unemployment report is out and it showed 155,000 jobs were created last month.  Interestingly, the most active hiring sectors of the economy were in manufacturing and construction, two of the hardest hit by the recession.  Maybe the "Buy American" initiative is catching on.

It's Friday.  Out.  ;)

S

Sorry for dozing off....is it over?

No, I didn't actually doze off during the final presidential debate last night, but it was touch and go for a while.  The polls this morning all agree President Obama won, but I certainly saw no knock-out punch or anything even close.  What I saw was a surprising amount of agreement on the issue of foreign affairs.  On many occasions Romney said he agreed with Obama's handling of (xyz).  Where was the blood and broken, flying teeth?  I just thought it was a boring event.

I will have to say that Obama did successfully (in my mind) call out the discrepancy in Romney's claim of a plan to generally cut spending and move towards a balanced budget all while cutting taxes across the board and increasing defense spending.  That arithmetic just does not compute, and unless Romney can/will provide specifics on how he's going to do it, I'm a skeptic.

I will also agree with Obama that raw numbers of military hardware (ships, planes, etc) are no longer as important as weapons system capability and survivability.  I've met many military leaders over the past dozen or so years and they all seem to agree.  I sleep well.

What shocked me was the fact that Europe, Africa, South America, Australia, and most of Asia except China have just disappeared.  They are apparently no longer even discussed when it comes to foreign affairs.  Did you hear them mentioned last night at all?  (OK, Russia was mentioned very briefly, but that was it.)  They've just vanished!

No, the only part of the world that matters seems to be the Mideast and SW Asia.  We seem to spend ALL our time / money / effort trying to civilize those heathens, and all we ever really do is buy off a few despots and corrupt generals.  All because they have oil.  There isn't a damn thing there besides that.  As I've said before, we need to develop our own secure sources of energy so we can quit beating our heads against the wall trying to schmooze those bastards.

OK, now I'm worked up and awake....about 12 hours late.

S