What's this button do?

North Korea tried Saturday to launch a ballistic missile, and just like their last test attempt, it also failed.  Crashed and burned big time, it did.  The question now is WHY?  Was it simply a case of inferior engineering, or something else?  Sunday the former British Foreign Secretary suggested it was likely that a US cyber-attack was responsible for the North Korean missile's spectacular failure. 

We've heard for years now about other countries successful hacks / cyber attacks on American commercial and public interests.  Through all this I've been wondering, "What are we capable of doing to them?"  Of course, barring a security leak, we'll never know for sure.  But if science is truly on the cusp of being able to disable enormously expensive weapons systems with cyber commands from a dark, secure room somewhere, this could be a world "balance-of-power" game changer.

This potential new form of dominant warfare has far-ranging implications.  For many decades there have been only two true superpowers, the USSR / Russia and the US, with the US generally believed to have a considerable edge.  "Superpower" being defined as quantities and qualities of missiles, warheads, aircraft, submarines, tanks, etc.  Only a select few advanced countries could get into our very exclusive club.  

Now, with a relatively small financial investment, many smaller countries could soon find themselves in the Cyber Big Leagues.  Surely tiny Israel is there right now, joining the US, Russia, and China in the top tier.  Other potential members might include N Korea, S Korea, Japan, India, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and a few others you wouldn't think of as likely superstars.  

Can you imagine the challenges to traditional spheres of influence where former minor league players can demand and win concessions from today's superpowers?  Where most of today's massive aircraft carrier battle groups and nuclear-tipped missiles are made redundant?  Where warfare will be (even) more about electronic / digital measures and countermeasures than about the actual hardware?  Will today's heavyweights be able to gracefully and willingly share power?

For those who are today willing to appease the Tea Party's thirst for tax cuts at all costs, please think twice.  Cutting funding in the wrong places, such as in education, especially in the nerdy fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, would likely come back to haunt us in the not-too-distant future.  It's time to double-down on funding our future.  Cyber-nerds sitting at computer keyboards may not be as sexy as a fleet of stealth bombers, but they will likely someday be far more important to our national security.

Chew on that thought for a while.

S

Son of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Master spy novelist John le Carre in Hamburg, 1964

You might be good, Mr. le Carre, but I think this one is even beyond YOUR imagination.  The embryonic plot:  A neophyte politician shocks the world and is actually elected President of the United States.  He's strong in economic theory and practice, but has to depend on others to give him advice on foreign matters.  But who?

Enter a former Navy SEAL, let's call him "Eric", working on behalf of the President-Elect, who travels quietly to The Seychelles, a small island archipelago in the Indian Ocean, to meet with a representative of Russian President Vladimir Putin.  Oooo....let's have the meeting be set up by a Middle Eastern Prince!  The purpose of the meeting is to establish a "back channel for high level communications" between the two powerful leaders.  Or is it?  

Eric is adept at working in the shadows, having founded a "dark" para-military / security firm (something sinister sounding....Blackwater!) that makes him a fortune thanks to years of lucrative US government contracts.  Some of it, say a quarter million dollars, is later donated to the campaign of the President-Elect.  Oh, and to pique your interest even further, let's have Eric's multi-billionaire sister be the new President's Education Secretary, and a major campaign donor herself.

At about the same time, the President-Elect's National Security Adviser-designate, "Mike", a former 2 3-star Army General (Ret), makes some "innocent" phone calls to the Russian Ambassador to the United States, Igor...no...SERGEY Kislyak to wish him a nice Christmas holiday.  Later they talk again, this time their conversation centers around "logistics", nothing more.  Or does it?  Mike tells the new VEEP and others that it is an innocent enough visit, just part of his job to meet & greet.

But Mike, after spending a career in national security and counterintelligence, somehow forgets (?) that the Russian Ambassador's phone is always tapped, and on one of his innocent calls he is recorded discussing with Sergey the possible removal of the crippling economic sanctions the US imposed on Russia after they invaded a neighbor.  When his lie becomes known, Mike is dismissed by the new President after only 3 weeks on the job. 

Still, the press, smelling there is more to Mike's past, keeps digging.  They soon learn that while he is advising his neophyte American candidate (who was elected by promoting "America First"), Mike is accepting a half million dollars in remuneration for advising someone "close" to the autocratic leadership of Turkey, too.  In fact, after an attempted coup in Turkey, Mike meets with senior Turkish representatives to suggest how the suspected coup leader, now residing in Pennsylvania, USA, could be quietly "removed" from the US without going through the proper American extradition process.

Mike is a surprisingly sloppy intelligence operative, failing to file the proper paperwork with the country whose uniform he wore for 33 years, as representing a foreign government.  Mike also attends several events in Russia, having dinner seated right next to none other than the Russian President himself, while actually receiving $33,000 from the Russian government-controlled TV news outlet RT for his attendance.  

Claiming innocence, Mike files his paperwork late, but fearing he (and his 6-figure military pension) might be in serious trouble, offers to tell all he knows about....he won't say exactly what....in exchange for legal immunity.  (Should Mike now have a surrogate start his car for him?  *boom!*  Interesting subplot?)

Still another Presidential adviser, "Rock",  no, even better, Roger "Stone" admits he met up numerous times with a known Russian spy years ago, but shared nothing of value, claiming he just thought his "friend" was part of the Russian UN delegation.  Even though the Russian spy was recorded as saying he thought Mr. Stone was an "idiot", Roger is later brought on board to advise the new American President "how the world works."

Not enough....I need more intrigue?  OK, so how about if the President's own son-in-law, "Jared" (no, not the Subway perv), a young real estate mogul of note, quietly meets with a Mr. Sergey Gorkov, Russian President Putin's hand-picked man to be the CEO of state-owned Vnesheconombank.  Jared says it is to discuss personal banking matters, never mind that Vnesheconombank is itself on our officially sanctioned "do not touch" list.  Sergey, however, apparently doesn't get the memo, and tells us all it was to discuss those same sanctions that General Mike somehow forgot to mention.

Shortly after, our lame duck President, in his last days in office, expels 30+ Russian diplomats as punishment for Russia's meddling in the recent American election.  Vladimir Putin just smiles, looks the other way, and doesn't retaliate, greatly pleasing the new President-Elect. 

Whew!  Enough?  OK, so how did the neophyte politician ever manage to get elected in the first place?  By a stroke of supreme luck he manages to hire Paul, an accomplished political handler, away from ousted Ukrainian President (and confidant of Russia's Putin), Viktor Yanukovych.  And just like that....Wah La....Hail To The Chief!

Now my mind is truly mush.  I'm exhausted.  I'll have to finish my work-in-progess after I get some much needed sleep.  Maybe I can watch the news tomorrow and get some more inspiration.  *wink*

Nite all.  :)

S

Our unraveling world

Let me just throw out some random observations regarding what's going on in the world today and then let you connect the dots:

Donald Trump campaigned on "America First", and for better or worse, he's delivering on it.  Among his demands is that NATO members should start pulling their weight financially.  They had previously agreed to each spend 2% of their GDP on defense, collectively strengthening NATO, but so far all but the US, Greece, the UK, Poland, and Estonia have reneged.  The German Foreign Minister recently said it was "quite unreasonable to believe Germany would spend 2% of its economic output on the military."

Last year the United Kingdom voted to separate themselves from the European Union, aka Brexit.  And now Scotland is again making noises about separating itself from the UK.

Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French National Front Party, who vows to follow the UK's Brexit lead and get France out of the EU (Frexit?), is on the short list to become the next President of France.  She also says she will strengthen French relations with Russia.   

Speaking of:  The Russia of Vladimir Putin is punching above its weight class.  It's expanding militarily, although still for now exhibiting more bluster than true power.  At home it's an economic basket case, but Putin still has visions of Russia regaining the glory and prestige it had back in the days of the old Soviet Union.  They meddled in the recent US election (fact), and right now are meddling in the upcoming elections of France and Germany.  Their cyber-warfare capabilities are immense and expanding, and we don't seem (?) to have a way to counter them.

Russia is leaning heavily on some of their former Soviet Republic neighbors, occupying Crimea, and now actively stirring things up in the Balkans (south-eastern Europe).  Meanwhile, back at home, the Putin regime is under pressure to reform, which he isn't about to let happen.  Although it's seldom reported in the press, there is considerable public discontent with Putin.  And what often happens when a leader wants to deflect attention away from discontent at home?

The leader of Turkey, Recip Erdogan, an avowed Islamist, is consolidating power, slowly but surely dismantling the secular state established there after WWI.  He is rapidly filling the power vacuum left by crumbling neighbors Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and others.   Turkey is a long-time member of NATO (another eventual nail in NATO's coffin?) , but not a member of the European Union. (They applied, but so far have been rebuffed).

North Korea is perfecting their nuclear arms at a steady pace.  So far no one has been able to convince them to cease and desist, not even their benefactor communist neighbor, China.  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has shown nothing but contempt for the rest of the world and seems hellbent on seating himself at the Big Table with the major powers.  He doesn't seem frightened by the concept of "Mutually Assured Destruction", which for 40 years kept the US and the USSR from attacking each other.  We don't seem to have any feasible way to dissuade North Korea.

The United States, traditionally the most stable country in the world, is still stable, but feeling some tremors.  We need some truly dependable allies, but they seem to be few and far between (see above).

Our climate is changing.  It's getting warmer almost everywhere.  Whether this is due to natural cycles or man-made factors, who knows?  But instead of playing it safe and being pro-active, we're looking the other way and just chasing the Almighty $$$.

Folks, we need to get our shit together.  Look back through history and you'll see we've been in hellacious messes before and gotten ourselves out, and we can now, too, assuming it's part of God's Grand Plan.  But just like in those past situations there will be a serious price to pay.  

The soft life we've been living for many generations may be coming to an end, which actually isn't a bad thing.  To eventually prevail we'll need to stop thinking in terms of "me, me, me" and start thinking of the common good for a change.

And as a personal request, can we please get all this worked out before next football season?  *wink*  

S
aka Chuckles :)

"Were your there, Grandpa, when The Donald became President?"

Presenting the next King President of the United States, Donald J. Trump.

Remember all those "And You Were There" books that put you in the place and time a historic event took place?  I think watching Donald Trump this election cycle dispose of 17 primary opponents and win the Republican nomination for President is going to be one of those book-worthy historic events.

The Republicans have one more night of smoke blowing for us to endure, and then it's on to Philadelphia to watch the Democrats trot out their Dog and Pony Show.  I have no idea what the polls say this morning, which will no doubt be different, perhaps even 180 degrees different, from what they'll say next week or next month, but I think it's over.  The Donald will be our next President.

Here's why I say that:  First, national events are working in Trump's favor.  His tough law-and-order stance will resonate more and more over the next few months.  The stark contrast between candidates Trump and Clinton will cause national tensions to remain high.  Another minority will lose his life under suspicious circumstances, and another few lawmen will sadly die, too.  Hillary Clinton's meek "why can't we all just get along" message will ring hollow compared to Donald Trump's "kick ass and take names" chest pounding.  Advantage Trump.

Second, terrorism around the world is gaining momentum.  I don't care if we militarily stomp ISIS into the dirt in Syria and Iraq, lone wolves or small cells of Islamic terrorists will continue to kill innocent people in Europe and, yes, perhaps even in America, too.  We're right now seeing the only sane (up until now) Muslim country in the Mid East be taken over by an Islamic strongman.  Turkey is going down the toilet before our very eyes.  How soon before the West will be told to take our NATO and move along?   Many Americans say they're tired of being "kicked around".  Donald Trump's tough talk will help soothe a lot of wounded American egos.  Advantage Trump.

And finally, we know the campaigns will get nasty, but think what each side has to complain about.  Hillary can talk about Ms Trump's plagiarism, Donald's multiple business bankruptcies, the perhaps fraudulent Trump University (which no one had even heard of until a couple of months ago), Trump steaks, his animated insult of a physically challenged NY reporter, his massive ego, his lack of government experience (which to many is as much an advantage as a disadvantage), his serial marriages, his policy flip flops over the years, "Two Corinthians", his demeaning words about Hispanics (whose votes Republicans rarely get anyway), and a few others.

Now think what Donald Trump can say about Hillary Clinton.  It's hard to even count all the scandals, real or imagined, that she has been associated with over the past 30 years....her abortive HillaryCare back during Bill's presidency, File Gate, Travel Gate, Vince Foster, the legal order to give back stuff she left the White House with when Dubyah moved in, and all the trade deals she has supported, which can easily be argued cost American jobs.  And more recently, American lives lost at Benghazi, the recent Iran deal she began negotiating, her "damn emails", etc.  Plus, she's been a part of government for decades.  It will be easy to say she's not the answer, but actually a part of the problem.  And independently, the NRA will go after her with a vengeance.  Hillary's flaws will seem more substantive to more people than Donald's shortcomings. 

Game, set, match.  All Hail President Trump.*

S

* Don't run to your bookie and bet on Donald Trump based on my analysis.  I also thought he would have stumbled and fallen months ago.  What do I know?  *wink*

A tale of two Turkey's

OK, stay with me here....I'm talking about Turkey, the country, not turkey, the bird.  Turkey the country burst into the news a couple days ago when a group of its army officers tried to seize power from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  The coup d'etat failed, and Erdogan remained in office and in fact is now consolidating his power.  Looking at it through American eyes, what does all this mean?  Some background:

Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder and first President of the modern Republic of Turkey.

At the end of World War I the defeated Ottoman Empire was broken up.  It was Mustafa Kemal (the name Ataturk was added later), a former Ottoman military officer, who pulled together Turkish nationalists and, long story short, won the Turkish War of Independence.  Think of him as a Turkish George Washington.  He was a brilliant progressive for his time, insisting on a strict secular (separation of state and religion) form of government and a strong, independent judiciary.  He built thousands of new schools, primary education was made free and compulsory, and women were given equal civil and political rights.  

Ataturk and his successor's western style of leadership have made Turkey far and away the most affluent, modern, and stable country in the Muslim world.  (The oil kingdoms might be affluent and modern, but will likely be stable only until their oil runs low.)

The Turkish constitution specifically gave the army the power to intercede if attempts were ever made to subvert its secular form of government.  Five times since 1960 they have stepped in to restore order after various crises, sometimes peacefully, sometimes rather heavy-handedly.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the 14th and current President of Turkey, serving since 2014.

President Erdogan was elected Mayor of Istanbul in 1994, and although an Islamist at heart, was a fairly pragmatic leader.  By 1997, however, his Welfare Party was one of several the army cracked down on for violating Ataturk's guiding principle of separation of religion and state.  When Erdogan publicly embraced the words of an Islamist poem, saying, "The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers", he was sentenced to 10 months in prison, eventually serving four.

After prison Erdogan was one of the founders of the Justice and Development Party, known as the AKP (go figure).  While still Islamist, it struck a more moderate public tone.  In recent years, however, he has accused the army of numerous (real or imagined) intrigues, and has had the supposed leaders arrested and jailed.  The result is that today most surviving senior military officers seem unwilling to speak out against him.  

This has paved the way for Erdogan to increase his authoritarian power.  Perhaps due to the current worldwide "Islamic awareness", the masses in Turkey seem more and more willing to blur the line between separation of religion and state, which Erdogan has been more than willing to exploit.

The still independent Turkish courts have recently on appeal ruled in favor of the officers Erdogan had jailed and released them.  This might be why [some of] the military again found its nerve and initiated last weeks coup, but without enough popular or military support, they failed.  Now the roundup is underway (6,000 so far), and the army is again being de-clawed.  Do you honestly believe any of the officers left standing will risk their necks to defend a secular Turkey?

So what does this all mean to us?  Until recently Erdogan has been a rather lukewarm participant in the war on ISIS.   The Turks have allowed ISIS recruits to transit through on their way Syria and Iraq, and have not allowed their air bases to be used to bomb ISIS strongholds.   (Turkey's and ISIS' sworn enemy is Syria's President Assad, and Erdogan was following the old adage "the enemy of my enemy is my friend.")  It was only after ISIS targeted the Turks for being apostate Muslims that they joined the fight in earnest.

With their newly found Islamic sense of pride and after being rebuffed by the European Union for membership, I'm wondering if Turkey will soon become a less-than-reliable ally?  How far will they go?  Will they someday become a theocracy similar to Iran?  Our next President might want to think about putting fewer of our eggs in Turkey's basket, just sayin'.

I think....I hope....we've learned the lesson that [helping to] overthrow an "uncooperative" government often backfires, leaving a vacuum that can be exploited by factions far worse than the one we helped eliminate.  The Turks will have to decide their own fate, and live with the results.  

So who is the big winner in all this?  Beats me, but I don't see it being the West.  Ataturk's moderate, secular Muslim country seems to be slowly backsliding.  Methinks they might be messing in their mess kit.

S

Me? I thought YOU were driving?

Here I am once again with your weekly dose of boredom, unless you're a geopolitical junkie like me. Then you might find this interesting....scary even.  Based on all I've seen, heard, and read, we're on the very edge of a perfect storm, and not a good one.

Over the next few years things are going to happen all around the globe that could change us dramatically.  I base this on my world-wide reputation as a preeminent....OK, I couldn't sleep, so it was post this Stephen King-like horror story or eat ice cream.

Our world is now more inter-dependent than ever.  What happens in Vegas, or Beijing, or Tehran doesn't stay there anymore.  Here's what we could soon be seeing:

1.  The Mid East is in mid-collapse....fact.  Iraq, Syria, and a few other so called "sovereign nations" *snort* in the region will never be reconstructed.  They are fragmented beyond repair.  A working alliance is developing between Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey (all predominately Sunni Muslim) as well as....shhhh....Israel.  Their goal is to counter, take down even, Shia Muslim Iran.  Except Iran soon might have nukes, and may or may not be afraid to use them.  *gulp*
  
When the implosion finally comes, in whatever form it comes, some of us might be giddy happy....until we realize the real world consequences.  The global oil supply will be forever changed, and radical Muslims will scurry from there like rats fleeing a flooded sewer.  

As Europe gets 70-80% (?) of their energy from Russia and the Mid East combined (more on Russia later), they will be devastated.  The US, thanks to its newly energized oil production (fracking), will be somewhat spared....until the Europeans start bidding up the price of the rest of the world's oil.  Then it will impact us here, too.  We currently think we're swimming in oil world-wide, but if production tanks in the Mid East, that changes big time!  (You might think twice about the long-term wisdom of buying that giant gas guzzling truck/SUV.)

2.  Europe is screwed.  REALLY screwed!  In addition to their energy dilemma, the European Union (EU) is in its death throe.  The Euro as a monetary unit is not long for this world.  It is fatally flawed.  A common currency where each Euro zone country is counting on the others collectively to bail them out in a pinch (see Greece), yet has no say in how their errant cousins spend their money, is crazy.  If one stumbles, the others can motor along just fine, but if several go over the edge at the same time....YIKES!  (Would you give your kid a credit card, and guarantee their debts, with no strings attached?)

The wealthy northern Europeans resent the spendthrift southern Europeans, and if / when their economies hit the fan, it will be taps for the EU.  And the Biggest Loser will be Germany, and Germany pulls Europe's strings.  Dependent on others for most of their energy, and with 50% of their GNP derived from high-value exports, Germany will take a huge hit.  Europe will be "every man for himself", and we've seen how that often turns out.  

And do I even have to mention what is likely to happen when the social cost of taking in a million or more Middle Eastern refugees becomes apparent?  And since the Europeans have a rather dismal record of assimilating immigrants from other cultures, these new arrivals are likely to become restive and even violent, egged on by the embedded Muslim extremists / terrorists streaming in, too.  (But give the Europeans credit....most have their hearts in the right place at least.)

3.  China will wonder what hit them, too.  China's huge appetite for energy will see them dramatically retrench when the oil market wretches.  We tend to think of China as an economic behemoth, and it sorta is, but it's also a house of cards.  Their "stock market" is laughable.  It is HUGELY overvalued.  

Most of their companies (literally) are money losers kept afloat by their Sugar Daddy government, yet have P/E multiples in the stratosphere.  The Chinese right now are burning through their vault-full of surplus cash at an alarming rate, trying to buy time until they can fix things.  Which are they going to run out of first....time, or cash?  The ripples spreading out around the globe due to a stumbling China will be tough to contain.

And there are really two (Mainland) China's:  The industrial, gleaming, new, prosperous coastal China, and the still relatively backward interior.  The former gets much more generous treatment from their government, while their country cousins get short changed.  How long do you think THAT inequality will last when faced with a substantial economic meltdown?  Ouch!

4.  Russia....they're in denial.  They (their leadership at least) still like to think of themselves as a world power, but they aren't.  They're broke, and their economy is pretty much a one-trick pony (oil & gas).  If the collapse of the Mid East makes Russian oil suddenly more valuable....here's the scary part....they could be even MORE delusional.  The drunk bull will once again be stumbling around in the china closet.  And if they, for whatever reason, remain economically sickly, remember the old saying...."desperate people do desperate things."  Don't take your eye off them!

5.  South/Latin America is constantly on the verge of breaking out, but whenever they get close, they shoot themselves in the foot. There is no sign of anything changing there any time soon.  Same old same old.

6.  Africa is still resource rich....and still (likely forever?) dysfunctional.  No change there, either.

7.  North America (which includes the USA, for those who are geographically challenged :) will come through in much better shape, though we're not invulnerable.  We're both envied and scorned now for our often excessive / bully ways, and we will be even more so if we keep to our "my way or the highway" Tea Party / conservative attitude.  I am heartened, though, by the fact that many of our current crop of political candidates, D & R alike, are NOT the same old party hacks that we keep recycling, but genuinely new faces, even if one is Donald Trump's.  :)

We are much more energy sufficient than we were just a decade ago, yet if the rest of the world retrenches due to a Mid East in permanent collapse, we'll have foreigners wanting to buy OUR oil at prices that will hit us consumers hard in our wallets.  And with the world in a prolonged economic squeeze, we'll have fewer markets for our super-productive businesses to sell to.  We simply can't consume internally all we are capable of producing.  We'll likely see business closures, rising unemployment, and maybe even social unrest.  Then throw in a stagnant middle class, deteriorating race relations, etc....

8.  The environment is a changing.  We can argue about whether this change is man-made or just nature's natural cycle, but regardless, it's changing.  Colder winters, hotter summers, more severe droughts and floods....Mother Nature is pissed!  Her PMS may well change world-wide agricultural patterns.  Remember, hungry people are dangerous people.

When you put all the jigsaw puzzle pieces together, this is the picture on the box top.  If this scenario is correct, or even partially correct, we could be in for a rough ride.  Even if we get our house in order, we can still be blindsided by others around the world who are likely to be fighting for their lives.  Sometimes it seems like "globalism" is coming full circle to bite us, huh?

And if this scenario proves NOT to be correct, then it means all those think tanks, fancy-pants PhD analysts, and other assorted soothsayers I subscribe to were full of crap, so never mind.  ;)

S 

Death by hanging, or death by firing squad?

 Just my two cents, which actually has no cash value at all....

  
Of course the O'Bama administration is touting the new Iran / 5+1 (or whatever it's called) nuclear freeze deal, and now our living rooms are being blasted with TV commercials saying it will be the end of the world and we must stop it.  So who's right?

IMHO both are.  There is no way we are going to get (our definition of) a good deal with the Iranians.  They are led by religious zealots who don't care what the world or even their own people want.  Oh sure, they trotted out the guy with the neatly trimmed facial hair and a suit of western-style clothes to be their front man....

....but it's really this guy, their Grand Exalted PooBah, who holds the real power, and he has said the agreement will in no way alter his determination to destroy Israel or deter him from spreading his pro-Shia Muslim influence across the Mid East.  I don't trust him, or the rest of the Gubment of Iran, and look for them to cheat every chance they get. 

They'll get the world's sanctions off their backs, get the go-ahead to buy critical "stuff" from the West, then they'll be off to their old shenanigans again.  (Before the ink even dried they announced a deal with Pootie Poo Putin to buy 100 Ilyushin aerial-refueling tankers, enabling their shitty little air force to extend their range to cover virtually the entire Mid East.)

BUT....

Let's get real here....we can't stop them.  With regard to this particular crisis, we're essentially powerless.  Sure, sanction hurt them, or more specifically hurt their people, but the religious zealots who call the shots there haven't cared about their people in decades.  Why start now?  

A few years down the road this will surely look like it was a bad deal.  But at least on paper it bought us some time.  Time to figure out what to do.  Time to develop some miracle new technology that can zap their nukes, or scramble their computers with some new computer virus.  I dunno.  Anything is possible.

So I guess we should take the deal, but NEVER let ourselves think this will be the peaceful end of those pesky old Iranians.  Like your slug of a brother-in-law, they'll be back.  Count on it.  *sigh*

Fortunately (?) for us, the Egyptians, Turks, and Saudis, and of course the always vigilant Israelis are making noises like they might step to the plate and do something.  'Course, if they succeed, what will be the unintended consequences from those odd bedfellows?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

On a totally unrelated (believe it or not) topic, this evening I'm going to the gun club to shoot this:

You know what they say about men and their toys.  :)

Now where did I put my tin foil hat?

S

What is that definition of insanity again?

"Doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results."

Why can't we get the Mexican drug cartels to line up for a photo op like this?

 

The United States has a serious problem with drug cartels physically venturing into US territory to expand their base of operations.  Do we go to the UN and ask that they put together a coalition to come help us?  Do we put in calls to France or New Zealand or South Korea and ask them to come to our aid?  NO!  It's in OUR back yard, making it OUR problem.

So why does the world always start chanting U...S...A... when it hits the fan in the Mid East?  In case you weren't aware, Turkey is a formidable power in that region.  So is Iran.  And obviously so is Israel.  And don't forget Saudi Arabia and Egypt.  If ISIS succeeds in Syria / Iraq, those countries have an immediate problem.  It's in THEIR back yard.  (America's problem with ISIS will be a bit longer range.) 

What I want to know is, what are THOSE countries gonna do about ISIS?  IMO those countries should be in the starting lineup.  We should be in the bull pen.  Those countries have their own planes and bombs.  We know this because WE sold them to them (along with Russia, the UK, France, and a few others).  

They save their weaponry for parades and fly-overs (and occasionally crushing a dissident group at home) while we expend ours.  While they spend their money on massive social programs for their citizens, our infrastructure crumbles, our schools struggle for adequate funding, and our food banks have trouble meeting demand.

Ever since Vietnam showed the world our military Achilles heel we haven't been able to defeat a guerrilla-style enemy.  That's because we value life.  We won't wipe out a city block to get one bad guy for fear of killing innocent civilians.  It happens, and we agonize over it, but we do make a valiant effort to prevent it.  Our guerrilla enemies have no such conscience.

We've become a foreign policy "Jack of all trades, master of none".  We try to be everywhere, but we actually accomplish very little.  Trying to prop up "countries" that were just figments of some post-WWI European diplomat's imagination is a lost cause.

I say let "those people" thrust and parry among themselves.  Let them decide their own borders.  Let them organize themselves by clan or tribe or whatever.  Let them establish their own balance of power.  It will be bloody, yes, but even if we try, we can have very little (if any) lasting influence.  It's called "reality".

We need to be backing up the Mid East regional powers who are truly on the front lines, and not the other way around.

Just sayin'.

S

Did these guys ever read a history book?

It's amazing to me how ignorant our "leaders" are.  Both parties need to require their elected lap-dogs to attend a class and educate them on the realities of the Mid-East.

President Brick O'bama has okay-ed the use of US surveillance drones to keep an eye on ISIS forces (the ultra-radical Islamic terrorist group) operating in Syria and Iraq.  What he hasn't authorized is the use of force against ISIS fighters across that line in the sand marking the border between Iraq and Syria....we don't want to violate Syrian airspace.

Here's the problem with that thinking: SYRIA AND IRAQ AREN'T REAL COUNTRIES!  Neither are Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, or Saudi Arabia.   They aren't now and never have been.  

They are "nations" with borders arbitrarily set up by the victors (Britain and France) after World War I.  During that Great War the two decided quietly to divvy up the Mid-East after the defeat of the Ottoman Empire (Turkey), who was fighting along side eventual losers Germany and Austro-Hungary.  

According to the Sykes-Picot Agreement France would exercise their sphere of influence over the northern part of said territory (the current areas known as Syria and Lebanon), while Britain would oversee their sphere of influence over the southern part (now known as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, and Israel).

But "national identity" was a foreign concept to the Arabs.  Their society was (and still is) organized around "families", which are part of "clans", which are part of "tribes".  They routinely band together to form temporary alliances when their short-term interests merge.  But when their interests change those alliances break up and new alliances with former enemy tribes take their place.  Regional politics are always fluid, therefore national boundaries are meaningless to them.

They don't give a rats ass about "borders".  Kurds don't see themselves as Turkish Kurds or Syrian Kurds or Iraqi Kurds.  They have no allegiance to any nation-state.  To say that we shouldn't violate "Syrian" airspace is a farce, as there is no Syria, and therefore no Syrian airspace to violate.  There are only various families and clans and tribes which congeal now and then into interest groups.

I'm not saying we should or shouldn't go after ISIS forces across that mythical line on a map that defines Syria, but just that that shouldn't enter into our decision.  And above all, we should give up on trying to introduce "democracy" to the people of the region.  They will never swear allegiance to any "country".  Why should we waste American lives and national treasure trying to set them up?

Screw 'em!

S

At my offensive best....

After reading the "world news" section of the paper this morning (every morning, actually) I once again have to ask myself, what good thing does Islam bring to the world table?  "Militant Islamists attack a mall in Kenya, blow up a church in Pakistan....Iraq, Afghanistan (all the little 'stans' actually), Syria, Libya, Somalia, Mali, kill, kill, kill..."  If they have a dominant Muslim population (with a few possible exceptions such as secular Turkey), they're up to no good.  No?  Show me otherwise.

"Oh, but those are just the militants.  Most aren't like that at all."  Really?  Polls I've seen taken in virtually all Muslim countries show the general population, while not actually taking up arms against the Infidels, expresses overwhelming sympathy for the militants.  Face it.  They simply don't like us.  Round peg, square hole.  Not gonna work.

As I remember from my studies as a child there was a time centuries ago when Muslim countries were leaders in math, science, philosophy, culture, etc.  So what happened?  They don't seem to be leaders in much of anything these days except Jihad.  Why do we have to have relations with them?  For oil?  Sure, I get that.  But we can do business with them without having to otherwise interact with them, can't we?

Seems to me they need our (the civilized world's) cash as much as we need their oil.  "Fill up the tanker, here's your money....see 'ya."  "We want to send our students to your country."  No.  "We want some of your foreign aid to build..."  No.  Any American travels there of his own free will and finds himself threatened with headlessness....too bad.

We constantly hear that isolation is bad.  How so?  If we want to live peacefully and prosperously by ourselves here (in the West), and they choose to live in ignorant squalor there, how is that bad?  Wouldn't we both be getting what we want?

I can see the desirability of globalisation when it comes to interacting with others of similar values.  But it doesn't seem to me we share many values with the Muslim world.  Lets all sacrifice some, put our heads together and find an alternative to their oil stranglehold, and then split the sheets and move forward.  And they can move backwards.  And if a phone rings here from their area code, don't answer it.  

Live and let live, I say.

OK, skewer me.

S