Battle Of The Bullies

I, along with my fellow international relations scholar, Jax the Wonder Dog, recently sat down and put together our list of the three biggest bullies on the international scene today.  Here are our finalists:

North Korea's Kim Jong Un

Coming in at third place is Kim Jong Un.  He has been trying hard since his elevation to power back in 2011 to prove he is a worthy successor to his late father and grandfather, the two previous dictators of North Korea. They have all tried to elevate themselves onto the world stage by becoming a nuclear power, but it appears KJU is now on the cusp of actually succeeding.  

His spoiled-rich-kid's temperament has until now been to run his mouth, threatening to rain death and destruction down on America with his new toys.  He might, however, be thinking twice as President Donald Trump seems to be calling his bluff.  Between the economic sanctions we have against his country and what the Chinese have piled on with, too, not to mention the US 7th Fleet parked off his coast, he may soon be down to eating tree bark like the rest of his countrymen.  In his upcoming summit with Trump he might try to dance and shuffle a bit hoping to save a little face, but Jax and I think KJU will eventually have to retreat with his tail tucked.

President Donald Trump

Coming in with a solid second place showing is Donald Trump.  Donnie John has been oozin' for a brusin' since the day his former lawyer, the legendary Mafia consigliere Roy Cohen, taught him to Attack, Attack, Attack!  He, of course, didn't himself actually attack, but his lawyers and bodyguards did on his behalf.  Now he has Twitter that enables him to mouth off, and a Department of Defense to back him up as he recently showed by rearranging the debris formerly known as Syria.

That was likely enough to convince Kim Jong Un Trump could both talk and walk and scare him back into his hole.  Likewise, Trump's strutting to date will likely bring the pragmatic Chi Coms to the bargaining table to conclude some sort of new trade agreement with America.  (They have too many warehouses full of cheap junk they need to unload.)

Russian President For Life Vladimir Putin

And now, after serious deliberation, our 2018 World Champion Bully Award goes to *drum roll* Vladimir Putin!  That's right, rootin' tootin' Vladimir Putin backs down all opponents and detractors by forcing them to break eye contact, rigging elections, and as a last resort, dropping errant journalists who dare say mean things about him from their 5th floor balconies. 

If Vladimir Putin demands your lunch money, you'd better give it up!

Putin is an old school KGB street brawler, and the streets of Moscow and St Petersburg are tougher than those in New York or Washington.  He has the gumption, the muscle, hookers with hidden cameras, and the willingness to use them all, and that makes unblinkable Vladimir Putin once again the World's Biggest Bully.

S

 

It was a cold and rainy night in Korea *cue the scary music*

Oh....never mind.

I'm constantly reading and watching the news, and being the current events junkie that I am, this North Korean nuclear crisis thing has become my Super Bowl.  I find it fascinating.  I've also observed this is a good time to be a retired General as they now have a steady paycheck playing armchair...uh...Generals on TV.  But I've played Battleship, and seen Patton three times as well as Kelly's Hero's twice, so I know a bit about military strategy myself.  Therefore here's my prognostication on who will be the last man standing:

First of all, there will be NO smoking holes in Korea, North or South, or anywhere else.  No nukes will be expended in the making of this crisis.  Behind-the-scenes diplomats will find a way to keep violence to a relative minimum.

Did anyone hear the report of the Chinese telling North Korea's Kim Jong Dung that they would have his back if he was attacked, but if he attacks pre-empitively, he's on his own?  This is a big deal!  I suspect the Chinese are actually rather scared of Kim themselves.  The Chinese liked the N Koreans poking the West as it took unwanted attention away from their indiscretions, but now they're realizing the unruly child they enabled has become a nasty juvenile delinquent. 

Meanwhile, the only advisers Pres Trump seems to pay attention to, General's McMaster, Mattis, Kelly, and perhaps Sec State Tillerson, will be calming the President down behind the curtain and looking for a way for the Prez to save face, without telling him what they're doing, of course.  It's all about stroking his ego.

The mid-August deadline for Kim Jong Dong to fire off his missiles will come and go.  The planned US/South Korean military exercises will go on as planned.  Kim might launch a test missile into the Sea Of Japan, no where near Guam.  Kim will go on local TV and strut his stuff, claiming he has backed down the Great Capitalist Satan.  

We'll fly B-1's and B-2's back and forth south of the DMZ during our joint exercise with S Korea, shoot Kim the "Trump bird", and the President will claim on the Fake News Channels his tough talk saved the day.  

The Short Fat One and the Tall Orange One will both enjoy plenty of fist bumps and back slaps at home, and things will return to the back burner where they've been for two decades.

Which will still leave Kim Jong Poop with nuclear weapons.  We want him to give them up, and he'll steadfastly refuse.  To Kim they're his security blanket.  With those in his back pocket he knows the rest of the world won't take him out.

Our only hope will be for one of his own Generals to whack him, which we'll soon find will actually solve nothing.  The N Korean's have no knowledge/history of how "democracy" works, so all we'll be doing is replacing one dictator with another.  And then the new guy...let's call him Dung Slung Shit...will want nukes in his back pocket.  *sigh*

Just as we'd rather there not be a nuclear China or India or anyone besides us for that matter, fact is that Genie is out of the bottle.  Trump can't put it back any more than Obama or Bush or Clinton before him could.  We'll just have to hope that we all understand the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction and sheath our nukes.

OK, so there's my latest prognostication.  Maybe one of these days I'll get one right.

S

Maybe they can settle things with a little one-on-one basketball?

By watching the Breaking News Channels I've learned that we should all be stocking up on Spam and Twinkies and Gatorade so as to get us through the upcoming Nuclear Winter.  I'm thinking this must be cable TV ratings week.  I just don't buy it that the Short, Fat One and the Tall, Orange One are going to step out back and settle this like men.

N Korea's Kim Jong Dung is threatening to launch four IRBM's toward Guam (a US territory) next week to show us how cool and powerful and worthy of respect he is.  The N Korean's say they aren't going to actually hit Guam, but hit just close enough to impress us with their technical prowess.

Pres Donald Trump is threatening to shoot down said four missiles, and maybe even lob a few of ours Kim's way, just to show him we ain't skeered.  Seems to me both have more to lose than to gain by their bluster. 

Based on past performance, the N Korean's missiles don't exactly have the best odds of making it all the way to Guam without falling apart mid-air, which would be a HUGE embarrassment to Kim Jong Dong.  

For our part, based on past performance, I think there is some doubt about the ability of our THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missiles, backed up by our slightly aged Navy Aegis anti-missile missiles, to knock down all four commie rockets if called on to do so. Our two most recent THAAD tests went well, but before that the previous four test's success rate was only 50/50.  If we threw all we had at Kim Jong Poop's third world missiles and one still got through, that would be a HUGE embarrassment to us.

And what if Kim missed the 100-gazillion-square-mile Pacific Ocean target and actually hit Guam?  Oops!  Then we WOULD wipe up on N Korea, and maybe light up S Korea and maybe China, too, in the process.  That's a lose/lose/lose/lose if there ever was one! 

I don't think either Kim Jong Un or Donald Trump wants to be seen by the world as a loser.  I think they'll just stand 7,000 miles apart and bloviate and shadow box.  It's just what Short Fat guys and Tall Orange guys with bad haircuts and tiny hands do.

Trust me, I'm an expert on international bloviation.  (I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express once.)

S

LATE EDIT:  I've just read that the last 15 THAAD tests have gone well.  (?)  If true, that will make Kim Jong Dud's missiles look even more pathetic.  Better to stand down, Dung, and not shoot yourself in the foot.

The more things change, the more they stay the same

Back in the early days of the Cold War all us little kids were taught to dive under our school desks to shield ourselves from an incoming Commie nuclear attack.  (I'm still questioning the wisdom of letting little kids crawl all over lead-lined desks all day, but that's a topic for later.)  I'm sure this would have worked great so long as the Rooskies attacked between the hours of 8 am and 3:15 pm, and respected recess, lunch times, and summer vacations.

Things are different today.  First, the Russians are likely not our main existential threat.  Russia's Vladimir Putin no doubt remembers the concept of "Mutually Assured Destruction" or MAD, which meant both sides knew if they launched an attack on the other, they themselves would be vaporized in retaliation about five minutes later.  Putin may be an evil bully, but he isn't stupid.  He knows he can get what he wants via something virtually untraceable back to the Motherland:  cyber warfare. 

Nor is China a likely existential threat to America.  Their version of modern Communism....let's call it Communism Lite....likes making a profit, and we're their biggest customer.  We need to keep each other happy.  Neither of us has much to gain, but a tremendous amount to lose, by nuking the other.

Iran....they could be, likely WILL be an existential threat to us sooner rather than later.   Our nuclear deal with them of a few years ago was, in retrospect, a joke.  They're probably still laughing over how gullible we were.  Their radical Islamic leadership would probably be willing to write off a few million of their own people in exchange for poking an infidel in the eye.  The good news for us here in 'Merica is that Israel is geographically much closer and has vastly more to lose than we do, so before Iran can truly threaten us, Israel will....umm...."handle it".  *wink*

North Korea, however, is another matter.  Their people might be perpetually on the verge of starvation, but Kim Jong Un still lavishes money on his nuclear program.  I doubt he's concerned about a few million of his people being wiped out in a nuclear retaliatory strike....the MAD concept probably means nothing to him.  

Prez Trump thinks China can control them, but I have my doubts.  Even if China cuts N Korea off today, it's too late.   That train has already left the station.  China is probably thinking if they piss him off anger Kim Jong Un, he might someday lob a few nukes their direction, too, so they're tippy-toeing their way around "The Little Fat One" as well.  For the time being I'm not particularly worried about Crazy Kim hitting my zip code with an ICBM....he'd probably have a tough time even hitting Texas!  As a geopolitical junkie, I'll admit this one is going to be "interesting" to watch play out.

Have I missed anybody?   Is there anyone else you can think of that might have a nuke or two set aside with our name on it?  

And most importantly, now that you're an adult, do you have a Big Boy or Big Girl desk you can fit under?  ;)

S

Our unraveling world

Let me just throw out some random observations regarding what's going on in the world today and then let you connect the dots:

Donald Trump campaigned on "America First", and for better or worse, he's delivering on it.  Among his demands is that NATO members should start pulling their weight financially.  They had previously agreed to each spend 2% of their GDP on defense, collectively strengthening NATO, but so far all but the US, Greece, the UK, Poland, and Estonia have reneged.  The German Foreign Minister recently said it was "quite unreasonable to believe Germany would spend 2% of its economic output on the military."

Last year the United Kingdom voted to separate themselves from the European Union, aka Brexit.  And now Scotland is again making noises about separating itself from the UK.

Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French National Front Party, who vows to follow the UK's Brexit lead and get France out of the EU (Frexit?), is on the short list to become the next President of France.  She also says she will strengthen French relations with Russia.   

Speaking of:  The Russia of Vladimir Putin is punching above its weight class.  It's expanding militarily, although still for now exhibiting more bluster than true power.  At home it's an economic basket case, but Putin still has visions of Russia regaining the glory and prestige it had back in the days of the old Soviet Union.  They meddled in the recent US election (fact), and right now are meddling in the upcoming elections of France and Germany.  Their cyber-warfare capabilities are immense and expanding, and we don't seem (?) to have a way to counter them.

Russia is leaning heavily on some of their former Soviet Republic neighbors, occupying Crimea, and now actively stirring things up in the Balkans (south-eastern Europe).  Meanwhile, back at home, the Putin regime is under pressure to reform, which he isn't about to let happen.  Although it's seldom reported in the press, there is considerable public discontent with Putin.  And what often happens when a leader wants to deflect attention away from discontent at home?

The leader of Turkey, Recip Erdogan, an avowed Islamist, is consolidating power, slowly but surely dismantling the secular state established there after WWI.  He is rapidly filling the power vacuum left by crumbling neighbors Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and others.   Turkey is a long-time member of NATO (another eventual nail in NATO's coffin?) , but not a member of the European Union. (They applied, but so far have been rebuffed).

North Korea is perfecting their nuclear arms at a steady pace.  So far no one has been able to convince them to cease and desist, not even their benefactor communist neighbor, China.  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has shown nothing but contempt for the rest of the world and seems hellbent on seating himself at the Big Table with the major powers.  He doesn't seem frightened by the concept of "Mutually Assured Destruction", which for 40 years kept the US and the USSR from attacking each other.  We don't seem to have any feasible way to dissuade North Korea.

The United States, traditionally the most stable country in the world, is still stable, but feeling some tremors.  We need some truly dependable allies, but they seem to be few and far between (see above).

Our climate is changing.  It's getting warmer almost everywhere.  Whether this is due to natural cycles or man-made factors, who knows?  But instead of playing it safe and being pro-active, we're looking the other way and just chasing the Almighty $$$.

Folks, we need to get our shit together.  Look back through history and you'll see we've been in hellacious messes before and gotten ourselves out, and we can now, too, assuming it's part of God's Grand Plan.  But just like in those past situations there will be a serious price to pay.  

The soft life we've been living for many generations may be coming to an end, which actually isn't a bad thing.  To eventually prevail we'll need to stop thinking in terms of "me, me, me" and start thinking of the common good for a change.

And as a personal request, can we please get all this worked out before next football season?  *wink*  

S
aka Chuckles :)

Maybe it's time to call in a few favors

It seems our favorite boy-king, North Korea's Kim Jong Fatty Fat Fat*, will soon be able to lob a nuke in our general direction. At least that's what he says, and our spooks confirm it, too.  South Korea goes so far as to say KJFFF has enough fissile material right now to build 5-10 nuclear devices.  Every new underground nuclear test and every new ICBM test launch seems to indicate they are indeed getting closer.

 
To counter KJFFF's threat the US has moved a special X-band radar platform closer to N Korea (from Hawaii) and is moving a THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile battery to S Korea, to augment THAAD batteries in Guam and Alaska(?).  Trouble is, I've read those missiles are 1990's technology that may or may not be up to intercepting the newest N Korean missiles.

Oh poor us....what SHALL we do?

I know what I'd do if I were Prez Donnie John Trump: I'd call up my new best friend, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (sorry Putin), and ask if we could borrow some of their brand new state-of-the-art anti-missile missiles.  Just coincidentally, last week the Israelis declared operational their new Arrow 3 system. 

Arrow 3's can intercept high altitude incoming missiles, and compliment their Arrow 2 system that can counter medium range incoming missiles and their Iron Dome short range defensive missiles.  They've got all their bases covered.

Israel isn't as bureaucracy-bound as the US and can pump out whatever new defense systems they need to (in record time, even) in order to guarantee their security.  Considering the 'hood they live in, they have no choice.  While we talk, they get things done, and their stuff works pretty well, too.

And since their new missiles were co-developed by Israeli Aerospace Industries and Boeing, and funded by the US taxpayers, they really can't tell us no.  We need to remind them that we've been covering their back since the '70's, and now we'd appreciate a little back covering ourselves.

 S

*  N Korea recently asked China to prohibit its media from calling their Dear Leader "fat".  Therefore I'm now filling the void left by China's compliance by referring to him as Kim Jong Fatty Fat Fat, or KJFFF for short.  ;)

Someone well above my pay grade is probably losing a lot of sleep

It seems that 17 separate intelligence services have connected the dots and deduced that Russia's Pootie-Poo Putin hacked the emails of the Democratic National Committee, Clinton campaign manager John Podesta, and no telling what all else.  I also seem to recall reading that the Germans, the French, and other European countries have reason to believe the Rooskies are meddling in their upcoming elections, too.  In response, just a few days ago Prez Obama said we will respond "at the time and place of our choosing."  Oh yeah?

Pay attention, folks....from low intensity email hacking to elaborate cyber-sabotage, this is the new face of warfare in the 21st Century.  For a surprisingly small investment, the US, or any country for that matter, can destroy any another country, regardless of how big or powerful they might be, without ever firing a shot.  Some geeks in a dark room with a few computers can pull off the [almost] perfect crime.  Actually I don't know if it could be done by just a few geeks or if it would take a small army of geeks, or whether it could be done using a few Dell's or HP's or requires a super computer, but it CAN be done. 

Remember back in 2010 when the US with Israeli help....or was it Israel with US help?....unleashed the Stuxnet virus on Iran's nuclear enrichment centrifuges and burned up a thousand or so of them?  Now think how far cyber-warfare has advanced in the time since.  The US and the Russians, and no doubt the Chinese, Koreans, Iranians, and a few other barely-out-of-Third-World-status countries, can electronically set each other back 50 years with just a few keystrokes, and it's virtually impossible to tell who the bad guy is.  Who do you strike back?

And here's where the West is especially vulnerable:  Virtually every home, school, business, factory, port, car, truck, bus, train, and plane in the advanced world is connected and at risk, while much of the rest of the world lacks our degree of technological sophistication.  We're simply a more target rich environment.

The Soviet Union collapsed when they had to choose between "guns or butter".  The government chose guns, while the people were desperate for butter.  The people won.  Today the choice isn't one or the other.  Even North Korea's Kim Jong Turd can wield power far beyond his two-bit dictator status.  While it's possible to bomb a nuclear weapons facility, or a missile launch site, or an airbase, how do you know which geek in what room is the one that needs a good spanking?

Interesting times, eh?  Stay tuned.  I'm pretty sure this is all Bill Gates fault.  ;)

S