OMG! OMG! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!

So now the Federales say the Russian jetliner that crashed in Egypt a few days ago might have been blown up in mid-air by a bomb planted by ISIS or Al Qaeda or maybe Dick Cheney, but they're not really sure.  What I do know is that the news media is hyping this for all the ratings they can get.

Right now there are probably people all over 'Merica fretting over whether to go ahead with their plans to fly to grandma's house for Thanksgiving, or to surprise the kids with a trip to Disney World over the Christmas holidays.   

"But what if those mean jihadi people blow up OUR plane?  You heard what Blitz Wolfer said, didn't you?"

Whoa....whoa....let's review:  There are approximately 93,000 airline flights worldwide every day.  That's 33,945,000 flights every year, give or take a couple.  And how often, historically, have bad guys blown up airliners?  Even if they blew up one a year, that would still mean your odds were 1 in 33,945,000 that it would be your plane.  Would you go to Vegas and bet your 401K with those odds?  Really?

So what should we (you and I , Mr. & Mrs. John Q. Public) do?  Easy....NOTHING.  Go about your business...go to work...go to school...go to a movie, do whatever you normally do.  Sure, we should always keep our eyes and ears open for anything suspicious, but that's just everyday common sense.   And honestly, I don't run with a rough crowd likely to bomb anything.  I doubt I'd be the one to hear a couple of jihadists making their martyrdom plans.

I'll admit, I don't have much faith in US airport security.  I think they're a bunch of lightweights.  But I do think there are plenty of super-smart intelligence operatives world-wide who would more than likely hear of something this dastardly (with the obvious rare exception) and alert our TSA Barney Fife's in time for them to get out their bullet.

Seriously, I think ISIS, if it did in fact blow up this airplane, has really messed in their mess kit.  While Western democracies are all too aware of public opinion and take great care to at least appear to dot their I's and cross their T's before they go on the warpath, not so the Russians.  They just crank up their tanks, gas up their planes, and start kicking ass.  Vladimir Putin is not known for his timidity.

It might be in our best interest to just sit back and let the Russians in Syria get all worked up....let them take out their anger on ISIS.  Let them wear themselves out and spend their limited fortune.  Let them be the proud owners of the largest debris pile in the Mid East.

*Now, where was I?  Oh yes...cleaning my guns*  ;)

S

Me? I thought YOU were driving?

Here I am once again with your weekly dose of boredom, unless you're a geopolitical junkie like me. Then you might find this interesting....scary even.  Based on all I've seen, heard, and read, we're on the very edge of a perfect storm, and not a good one.

Over the next few years things are going to happen all around the globe that could change us dramatically.  I base this on my world-wide reputation as a preeminent....OK, I couldn't sleep, so it was post this Stephen King-like horror story or eat ice cream.

Our world is now more inter-dependent than ever.  What happens in Vegas, or Beijing, or Tehran doesn't stay there anymore.  Here's what we could soon be seeing:

1.  The Mid East is in mid-collapse....fact.  Iraq, Syria, and a few other so called "sovereign nations" *snort* in the region will never be reconstructed.  They are fragmented beyond repair.  A working alliance is developing between Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey (all predominately Sunni Muslim) as well as....shhhh....Israel.  Their goal is to counter, take down even, Shia Muslim Iran.  Except Iran soon might have nukes, and may or may not be afraid to use them.  *gulp*
  
When the implosion finally comes, in whatever form it comes, some of us might be giddy happy....until we realize the real world consequences.  The global oil supply will be forever changed, and radical Muslims will scurry from there like rats fleeing a flooded sewer.  

As Europe gets 70-80% (?) of their energy from Russia and the Mid East combined (more on Russia later), they will be devastated.  The US, thanks to its newly energized oil production (fracking), will be somewhat spared....until the Europeans start bidding up the price of the rest of the world's oil.  Then it will impact us here, too.  We currently think we're swimming in oil world-wide, but if production tanks in the Mid East, that changes big time!  (You might think twice about the long-term wisdom of buying that giant gas guzzling truck/SUV.)

2.  Europe is screwed.  REALLY screwed!  In addition to their energy dilemma, the European Union (EU) is in its death throe.  The Euro as a monetary unit is not long for this world.  It is fatally flawed.  A common currency where each Euro zone country is counting on the others collectively to bail them out in a pinch (see Greece), yet has no say in how their errant cousins spend their money, is crazy.  If one stumbles, the others can motor along just fine, but if several go over the edge at the same time....YIKES!  (Would you give your kid a credit card, and guarantee their debts, with no strings attached?)

The wealthy northern Europeans resent the spendthrift southern Europeans, and if / when their economies hit the fan, it will be taps for the EU.  And the Biggest Loser will be Germany, and Germany pulls Europe's strings.  Dependent on others for most of their energy, and with 50% of their GNP derived from high-value exports, Germany will take a huge hit.  Europe will be "every man for himself", and we've seen how that often turns out.  

And do I even have to mention what is likely to happen when the social cost of taking in a million or more Middle Eastern refugees becomes apparent?  And since the Europeans have a rather dismal record of assimilating immigrants from other cultures, these new arrivals are likely to become restive and even violent, egged on by the embedded Muslim extremists / terrorists streaming in, too.  (But give the Europeans credit....most have their hearts in the right place at least.)

3.  China will wonder what hit them, too.  China's huge appetite for energy will see them dramatically retrench when the oil market wretches.  We tend to think of China as an economic behemoth, and it sorta is, but it's also a house of cards.  Their "stock market" is laughable.  It is HUGELY overvalued.  

Most of their companies (literally) are money losers kept afloat by their Sugar Daddy government, yet have P/E multiples in the stratosphere.  The Chinese right now are burning through their vault-full of surplus cash at an alarming rate, trying to buy time until they can fix things.  Which are they going to run out of first....time, or cash?  The ripples spreading out around the globe due to a stumbling China will be tough to contain.

And there are really two (Mainland) China's:  The industrial, gleaming, new, prosperous coastal China, and the still relatively backward interior.  The former gets much more generous treatment from their government, while their country cousins get short changed.  How long do you think THAT inequality will last when faced with a substantial economic meltdown?  Ouch!

4.  Russia....they're in denial.  They (their leadership at least) still like to think of themselves as a world power, but they aren't.  They're broke, and their economy is pretty much a one-trick pony (oil & gas).  If the collapse of the Mid East makes Russian oil suddenly more valuable....here's the scary part....they could be even MORE delusional.  The drunk bull will once again be stumbling around in the china closet.  And if they, for whatever reason, remain economically sickly, remember the old saying...."desperate people do desperate things."  Don't take your eye off them!

5.  South/Latin America is constantly on the verge of breaking out, but whenever they get close, they shoot themselves in the foot. There is no sign of anything changing there any time soon.  Same old same old.

6.  Africa is still resource rich....and still (likely forever?) dysfunctional.  No change there, either.

7.  North America (which includes the USA, for those who are geographically challenged :) will come through in much better shape, though we're not invulnerable.  We're both envied and scorned now for our often excessive / bully ways, and we will be even more so if we keep to our "my way or the highway" Tea Party / conservative attitude.  I am heartened, though, by the fact that many of our current crop of political candidates, D & R alike, are NOT the same old party hacks that we keep recycling, but genuinely new faces, even if one is Donald Trump's.  :)

We are much more energy sufficient than we were just a decade ago, yet if the rest of the world retrenches due to a Mid East in permanent collapse, we'll have foreigners wanting to buy OUR oil at prices that will hit us consumers hard in our wallets.  And with the world in a prolonged economic squeeze, we'll have fewer markets for our super-productive businesses to sell to.  We simply can't consume internally all we are capable of producing.  We'll likely see business closures, rising unemployment, and maybe even social unrest.  Then throw in a stagnant middle class, deteriorating race relations, etc....

8.  The environment is a changing.  We can argue about whether this change is man-made or just nature's natural cycle, but regardless, it's changing.  Colder winters, hotter summers, more severe droughts and floods....Mother Nature is pissed!  Her PMS may well change world-wide agricultural patterns.  Remember, hungry people are dangerous people.

When you put all the jigsaw puzzle pieces together, this is the picture on the box top.  If this scenario is correct, or even partially correct, we could be in for a rough ride.  Even if we get our house in order, we can still be blindsided by others around the world who are likely to be fighting for their lives.  Sometimes it seems like "globalism" is coming full circle to bite us, huh?

And if this scenario proves NOT to be correct, then it means all those think tanks, fancy-pants PhD analysts, and other assorted soothsayers I subscribe to were full of crap, so never mind.  ;)

S 

Death by hanging, or death by firing squad?

 Just my two cents, which actually has no cash value at all....

  
Of course the O'Bama administration is touting the new Iran / 5+1 (or whatever it's called) nuclear freeze deal, and now our living rooms are being blasted with TV commercials saying it will be the end of the world and we must stop it.  So who's right?

IMHO both are.  There is no way we are going to get (our definition of) a good deal with the Iranians.  They are led by religious zealots who don't care what the world or even their own people want.  Oh sure, they trotted out the guy with the neatly trimmed facial hair and a suit of western-style clothes to be their front man....

....but it's really this guy, their Grand Exalted PooBah, who holds the real power, and he has said the agreement will in no way alter his determination to destroy Israel or deter him from spreading his pro-Shia Muslim influence across the Mid East.  I don't trust him, or the rest of the Gubment of Iran, and look for them to cheat every chance they get. 

They'll get the world's sanctions off their backs, get the go-ahead to buy critical "stuff" from the West, then they'll be off to their old shenanigans again.  (Before the ink even dried they announced a deal with Pootie Poo Putin to buy 100 Ilyushin aerial-refueling tankers, enabling their shitty little air force to extend their range to cover virtually the entire Mid East.)

BUT....

Let's get real here....we can't stop them.  With regard to this particular crisis, we're essentially powerless.  Sure, sanction hurt them, or more specifically hurt their people, but the religious zealots who call the shots there haven't cared about their people in decades.  Why start now?  

A few years down the road this will surely look like it was a bad deal.  But at least on paper it bought us some time.  Time to figure out what to do.  Time to develop some miracle new technology that can zap their nukes, or scramble their computers with some new computer virus.  I dunno.  Anything is possible.

So I guess we should take the deal, but NEVER let ourselves think this will be the peaceful end of those pesky old Iranians.  Like your slug of a brother-in-law, they'll be back.  Count on it.  *sigh*

Fortunately (?) for us, the Egyptians, Turks, and Saudis, and of course the always vigilant Israelis are making noises like they might step to the plate and do something.  'Course, if they succeed, what will be the unintended consequences from those odd bedfellows?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

On a totally unrelated (believe it or not) topic, this evening I'm going to the gun club to shoot this:

You know what they say about men and their toys.  :)

Now where did I put my tin foil hat?

S

What is that definition of insanity again?

"Doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results."

Why can't we get the Mexican drug cartels to line up for a photo op like this?

 

The United States has a serious problem with drug cartels physically venturing into US territory to expand their base of operations.  Do we go to the UN and ask that they put together a coalition to come help us?  Do we put in calls to France or New Zealand or South Korea and ask them to come to our aid?  NO!  It's in OUR back yard, making it OUR problem.

So why does the world always start chanting U...S...A... when it hits the fan in the Mid East?  In case you weren't aware, Turkey is a formidable power in that region.  So is Iran.  And obviously so is Israel.  And don't forget Saudi Arabia and Egypt.  If ISIS succeeds in Syria / Iraq, those countries have an immediate problem.  It's in THEIR back yard.  (America's problem with ISIS will be a bit longer range.) 

What I want to know is, what are THOSE countries gonna do about ISIS?  IMO those countries should be in the starting lineup.  We should be in the bull pen.  Those countries have their own planes and bombs.  We know this because WE sold them to them (along with Russia, the UK, France, and a few others).  

They save their weaponry for parades and fly-overs (and occasionally crushing a dissident group at home) while we expend ours.  While they spend their money on massive social programs for their citizens, our infrastructure crumbles, our schools struggle for adequate funding, and our food banks have trouble meeting demand.

Ever since Vietnam showed the world our military Achilles heel we haven't been able to defeat a guerrilla-style enemy.  That's because we value life.  We won't wipe out a city block to get one bad guy for fear of killing innocent civilians.  It happens, and we agonize over it, but we do make a valiant effort to prevent it.  Our guerrilla enemies have no such conscience.

We've become a foreign policy "Jack of all trades, master of none".  We try to be everywhere, but we actually accomplish very little.  Trying to prop up "countries" that were just figments of some post-WWI European diplomat's imagination is a lost cause.

I say let "those people" thrust and parry among themselves.  Let them decide their own borders.  Let them organize themselves by clan or tribe or whatever.  Let them establish their own balance of power.  It will be bloody, yes, but even if we try, we can have very little (if any) lasting influence.  It's called "reality".

We need to be backing up the Mid East regional powers who are truly on the front lines, and not the other way around.

Just sayin'.

S

They're at it again....

The Arab world is rioting again.  Well, as they're always pissed off about something, I guess this isn't really breaking news.  

Now things seem to be boiling over in Egypt, a "strategic American ally".  Really?  How so?  They hate us.  Except on the day our $1.5B foreign aid check arrives in the mail.  Then we're big buds.  But then the check clears and they go back to hating our guts again.

Even more ridiculous is the $3.5B we give to Pakistan every year.  Are there varying degrees of how much you can hate America?  If so, the Pakistanis would be at the top of that bar chart.  Except on the day our foreign aid check arrives in the mail.  Then we're big buds.

We also give $3.1B a year to Israel, but at least they share with us some of the world-class R&D they're doing.  Considering how much we shovel their way you'd think Pakistan and Egypt would share, too, since they're world leaders in....ummm....ahhhh.....somebody help me out here.  (Rock chucking doesn't count.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Early this morning a UPS Airbus A300 cargo jet crashed on its approach into Birmingham, Alabama, killing the two crew members.  Tragic.  :(

This somehow brings to mind something I've wondered about for a long time:  Why do commercial pilots make so much money? *  (Smooth segue, huh?  Yes, my mind works in strange ways.)

Don't get me wrong, I don't want some slovenly bus driver up there hauling me and my family all over the sky.  It's a tough job, with terrible pay and long hours for newbies, but they eventually cash in big a few years later, while there are (or at least there used to be) hundreds of very competent high-hour pilots leaving the military every year who are turned away by the airlines.  (Many are now being soaked up by new foreign air carriers, but this is a fairly recent phenomenon.)  

What happened to supply and demand?  I always thought a shortage of a particular job skill = higher pay for those who had it, while an overabundance moderated wages. Apparently not so for commercial pilots.

Pilots I've asked about this say the public can't imagine the huge responsibility they have to care for the 200...300...400 or more passengers strapped to their back.  OK, fair enough.  But why then does a senior FedEx pilot make MORE than a senior Delta, American, or United Captain?  All they have strapped to their back are letters and packages.

*I wish someone would pay me for thinking of weird stuff like this.  I'd be rich!*

Oh well.  Just another of life's mysteries.  Have a great day everyone.  :)

S

* Why does a Boeing 747 have that big bulge on top of the fuselage at the front of the plane?  So the pilot can sit on his wallet.  :)

Viva Egypt!

The news is full of reports and photos from Egypt showing huge crowds protesting against President Mohammad Morsi, and they keep referring to Egypt as one of America's "key allies".  Now I don't profess to be a Mid-East expert, but I have no idea what Egypt has done to deserve the designation of "key ally".  Anybody help me out?

True, we always seem to have a couple billion of those pesky 'ole Greenbacks littering the Washington landscape and every year Egypt sends a delegation over to Hoover 'em up for us.  And they're not taking pot-shots at Israel, so I guess that's good. 

And they do allow us to send busloads of tourists to see their really old rock piles....that's pretty cool.  But otherwise....?

Here's an idea that might calm them down:  Why don't they buy some paint and spruce the place up?  Have you ever seen a more blah looking landscape?  If I lived in Cairo I'd be protesting in the streets, too.  How depressing!  Makes you want to grab a Molotov cocktail and burn something up, doesn't it?

But back on today's theme....what does Egypt have to offer that makes them a critical American ally?  Isn't Egyptian cotton supposed to be the best in the world?  So without their cotton we wouldn't have 1200-thread-count sheets?  Is that their contribution to world peace and prosperity? 

*Ding!*  I get it now!  I hope they can work things out, 'cause the world needs their fancy sheets, you know.  

Meanwhile, here's hoping you have a safe and happy July 4th.  :)

S

I'm beginning to see a pattern here...with EDIT

I've said for a long time, particularly after watching news clips showing rioting mobs in Muslim countries, "Those people just don't think right." A like comment yesterday on my blog from PT Dilloway, referring to the violence in Libya, said, "In what freaking universe does that make any freaking sense?"

This brought to mind an article I once read that pointed out that in the Muslim world marriage between cousins (known as "consanguinity"), and even brothers and sisters, is common.  A little online research found many credible sources confirming this and offering these statistics:  

Thirty-three percent of all marriages in Egypt are consanguine, as are 48 percent in Libya, 60 percent in Iraq, 70 percent in Pakistan, 67 percent in Saudi Arabia, 40 percent in Syria, 34 percent in Algeria, 63 percent in Sudan, 46 percent in Bahrain, 64 percent in Jordan, 42 percent in Lebanon, 54 percent in Qatar, 45 percent in Yemen, and 54 percent in the UAE.

This has been going on for 1,400 years in the Mideast, and is done in order to keep wealth (?) and power "within the family".   This is why it's so hard for sovereign countries to command the loyalty of their citizens.  People's loyalty goes to their "clan", not their arbitrarily cobbled together "country".

Not surprisingly, research has shown that children of consanguineous marriages have 10-16% lower IQ's.  Can you imagine the consequences of this generation after generation after generation?  Well, they might be able to keep all the camels in the family, but they also have a mighty polluted gene pool!

We (the West) keep trying to lead the Mideast towards our version of how things should be....democratic, governed by rule of law, peaceful, respectful to all, including women, etc.  I'm wondering if their average citizen can even comprehend those concepts?  

Thousands of years of tradition and ignorance and inbreeding are hard to overcome.  IMO we're beating our heads against a brick (or in their case mud) wall.  

S

EDIT:  Oh, the insanity....now they're burning the KFC in Cairo!  Is nothing sacred?

Team America...World Police

If you watch the news at all you know there's a civil war raging in Syria right now.  The question that's constantly being asked is, "What should we do?"  Do we just watch?...Supply arms to the rebels?...Provide some sort of direct military support? 


I wonder if we as a nation suffer from some sort of guilt trip dating back to World War II?  Do we somehow feel responsible for not doing more in the 1930's to stop Hitler before he initiated the Holocaust?  Is that why we feel this urge to save all the oppressed of the world?  Speaking for myself as a Christian I would say, no, I don't want to turn a blind eye to the hungry or sick, but how much can we be expected to do, especially when so many right here at home are needing help, too?  


I don't see many other advanced western nations (Australia, Sweden, Canada..?)  chomping at the bit wanting to get involved there and we don't seem to be too critical of them.  Why is it all on us?  Would we be terrible people if we just said, "Sorry, but this is your fight."  


Be honest....do you really care what happens in Egypt, or Syria, or Yemen, etc?  As long as they don't export terrorists to come here and do us harm, I really don't.  And if they do, don't we have ways (clandestine) to deal with that short of the way we've handled things in Afghanistan?  I just think we need to get our own house in order before we start telling others how to run theirs. 


S

I'd make a lousy diplomat

Doesn't anything newsworthy ever happen in Australia, or Denmark, or Chile?  Every morning I pull up the news and find the same thing day after day:  Iran this, Pakistan that, Iraq...Egypt...Afghanistan...Syria...Libya...etc. I'm sorry, but I flat don't give a rats ass what happens over there.  That part of the world is just a giant hell hole as far as I'm concerned.  It's almost as if blowing stuff up is their idea of having a good time.  And let's face it....if there wasn't oil in that general area, the rest of the world would write it off, too.  


Yes, I believe we should share our food and humanitarian supplies with people who are hurting wherever they are, but that generally isn't the way our foreign aid policy works.  Most of our generosity goes to governments, who promptly split it up among the top politicians and generals, the people be damned.   Last time I looked we had people right here at home who had bare pantries, and we had bridges and roads right here that were crumbling.  And unemployed people right here who would love a job building / repairing those crumbling bridges and roads.  And broke taxpayers right here who are tired of trying to buy friends all over the world.  What is it Dr. Phil says?  "....and how's that workin' out for ya?"  


I doubt I'll get many comments to this post because, honestly, this is about as un-PC as you're gonna get.  I don't care.  This is my vehicle to vent.  Venting complete.


S