Our unraveling world

Let me just throw out some random observations regarding what's going on in the world today and then let you connect the dots:

Donald Trump campaigned on "America First", and for better or worse, he's delivering on it.  Among his demands is that NATO members should start pulling their weight financially.  They had previously agreed to each spend 2% of their GDP on defense, collectively strengthening NATO, but so far all but the US, Greece, the UK, Poland, and Estonia have reneged.  The German Foreign Minister recently said it was "quite unreasonable to believe Germany would spend 2% of its economic output on the military."

Last year the United Kingdom voted to separate themselves from the European Union, aka Brexit.  And now Scotland is again making noises about separating itself from the UK.

Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French National Front Party, who vows to follow the UK's Brexit lead and get France out of the EU (Frexit?), is on the short list to become the next President of France.  She also says she will strengthen French relations with Russia.   

Speaking of:  The Russia of Vladimir Putin is punching above its weight class.  It's expanding militarily, although still for now exhibiting more bluster than true power.  At home it's an economic basket case, but Putin still has visions of Russia regaining the glory and prestige it had back in the days of the old Soviet Union.  They meddled in the recent US election (fact), and right now are meddling in the upcoming elections of France and Germany.  Their cyber-warfare capabilities are immense and expanding, and we don't seem (?) to have a way to counter them.

Russia is leaning heavily on some of their former Soviet Republic neighbors, occupying Crimea, and now actively stirring things up in the Balkans (south-eastern Europe).  Meanwhile, back at home, the Putin regime is under pressure to reform, which he isn't about to let happen.  Although it's seldom reported in the press, there is considerable public discontent with Putin.  And what often happens when a leader wants to deflect attention away from discontent at home?

The leader of Turkey, Recip Erdogan, an avowed Islamist, is consolidating power, slowly but surely dismantling the secular state established there after WWI.  He is rapidly filling the power vacuum left by crumbling neighbors Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and others.   Turkey is a long-time member of NATO (another eventual nail in NATO's coffin?) , but not a member of the European Union. (They applied, but so far have been rebuffed).

North Korea is perfecting their nuclear arms at a steady pace.  So far no one has been able to convince them to cease and desist, not even their benefactor communist neighbor, China.  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has shown nothing but contempt for the rest of the world and seems hellbent on seating himself at the Big Table with the major powers.  He doesn't seem frightened by the concept of "Mutually Assured Destruction", which for 40 years kept the US and the USSR from attacking each other.  We don't seem to have any feasible way to dissuade North Korea.

The United States, traditionally the most stable country in the world, is still stable, but feeling some tremors.  We need some truly dependable allies, but they seem to be few and far between (see above).

Our climate is changing.  It's getting warmer almost everywhere.  Whether this is due to natural cycles or man-made factors, who knows?  But instead of playing it safe and being pro-active, we're looking the other way and just chasing the Almighty $$$.

Folks, we need to get our shit together.  Look back through history and you'll see we've been in hellacious messes before and gotten ourselves out, and we can now, too, assuming it's part of God's Grand Plan.  But just like in those past situations there will be a serious price to pay.  

The soft life we've been living for many generations may be coming to an end, which actually isn't a bad thing.  To eventually prevail we'll need to stop thinking in terms of "me, me, me" and start thinking of the common good for a change.

And as a personal request, can we please get all this worked out before next football season?  *wink*  

S
aka Chuckles :)

Now you see 'em, now you don't....

....I'm talking about homes, and schools, and businesses.  OUCH!

 Dallas area tornado damage from yesterday.

Tell me again how "climate change" is just a figment of our imagination?  This is NOT tornado season, nor is it normal to be wearing shorts at Christmas time, at least in the northern hemisphere, but it happened.  I know....I was preparing to head to more substantial shelter and had to decide whether to wear my shorts or take along my heavy winter coat, as it's supposed to turn blustery cold.  (I did both.)

We saw this coming.  Right now it's snowing in west Texas....1 to 2 FEET is expected....being blown around by 50-70 mph winds.  Drifts of 8-10 feet are expected!  In Texas!  Meanwhile, on our side of the front, it has been record setting warm....as I said, mid-70's.  And if you'll think back to meteorology 101, heat and cold that close do not play well together.

Sure enough, BOOM!

By mid afternoon yesterday super-cell thunderstorms were firing up south of Dallas, which is where we do not want to see them.  That's because these super-cells and their tornadoes travel north and east.  By about dusk they were here.  One coming up through downtown Dallas looked for a while like it would move right up towards Frisco and our humble abode. 

Fortunately for us it fell apart before it got here, but I had already told K to get together a few things and prepare to head to our parking garage.  We live in an apartment community where 4-story apartments made of lumber and brick/stone surround a very solid concrete 4-story parking garage.  We can get from our apartment to the safety of that concrete structure in <30 seconds.  Our apartments might explode, but our garage won't.  

I'm thinking K must have been a Boy Scout in a previous life.  She's "Always Prepared".  We keep some essentials in our respective cars, and it's pretty simple to grab wallets, keys, and of course the dog.  I felt rather stupid grabbing my heavy winter coat when it was still in the 70's, but today as advertised it's in the 40's and dropping, and raining heavily.

The major destruction and 11 deaths occurred from Ellis county to our south, up through south Garland, Rowlett, and the areas around Lake Lavon, east of me.  Eight of those fatalities were killed when cars they were riding in went airborne....they probably never even saw it coming as it was nighttime....and slammed down on their roofs.  My former home town had upwards of 600 homes damaged to some degree.

For those so inclined, you can text REDCROSS to 90999 to give a $10 donation.  Prayers would be very appreciated, too.

S

Debate, debate, de took de bait

 

The two Democratic candidates for President plus three other guys.

The political / news junkie I am watched with interest the Democratic presidential debate last night.  Short version:  Hillary Clinton came across as polished and "presidential", and Bernie Sanders came across as honest, sincere, thoughtful, a guy who genuinely cares....and as un-electable.  Sen. Jim Webb was voted Most Likely To Die On Stage From A Stick Up His Ass, Gov. Martin O'Malley seemed to be auditioning for a Hollywood movie roll, and Sen. Lincoln Chaffee seemed happy just to be allowed to eat the free munchies back in the Green Room.

One issue I personally agreed with was their almost universal (except for Hillary C) position that our financial system (the banks) are too powerful, too big, and should be reined in or even broken up into smaller, less dangerous pieces. I think it was Bernie Sanders who said, "Fraud has become their business model".  He was spot on, and there are sanctions and fines against all the big banks to prove it.

They were also spot on when they said our campaign finance rules that allow PAC's to decide elections is a travesty.  (Hillary was understandably quiet on the subject as she has Super PAC's supporting her.)  I like the way Bernie Sanders raises his money, $30 at a time.  

But their call for a $15 minimum wage, a "living wage", doesn't seem well thought out.  My understanding of economics is that if your costs increase without also increasing the value of what is being produced accordingly, you'll get inflation, negating the pay increase.  And it's hard to increase the value of a burger enough to justify paying flippers $15 an hour.  Noble idea, but DOA.

And they want to take on the NRA?  Are they nuts?  Stoopid!  Without even trying to debate the merits of their position, all I can say is they're chasing the proverbial windmill.  Their best move would have been to just say nothing about gun control, which was the winning strategy Brick O'Bama had back in '12.  Bernie hit the nail when he said if they think they're going to Congress with a comprehensive gun bill, they're delusional.

A global warming remediation agenda....sure, they can sell that.

Notice how little mention there was of the pro-choice / pro-life issue?  Smart.  The two positions aren't likely to change their minds, so smart politics says just leave it alone.

They seemed to agree the Middle Eastern countries should take the lead fighting ISIS, with the US supporting.  That seems sellable.

The best line was Bernie's.... "The American people are sick and tired of hearing about Hillary's damn emails."  That sold well in that highly partisan auditorium, but I doubt FOX News and the Republicans will be as kind over the next year.

Bottom line....IMHO it's now a 2-person race for the Democratic nomination.  Hillary comes with lots of baggage, and Bernie used the "S" word.  It's gonna take a lot of lipstick....  ;)

S

Me? I thought YOU were driving?

Here I am once again with your weekly dose of boredom, unless you're a geopolitical junkie like me. Then you might find this interesting....scary even.  Based on all I've seen, heard, and read, we're on the very edge of a perfect storm, and not a good one.

Over the next few years things are going to happen all around the globe that could change us dramatically.  I base this on my world-wide reputation as a preeminent....OK, I couldn't sleep, so it was post this Stephen King-like horror story or eat ice cream.

Our world is now more inter-dependent than ever.  What happens in Vegas, or Beijing, or Tehran doesn't stay there anymore.  Here's what we could soon be seeing:

1.  The Mid East is in mid-collapse....fact.  Iraq, Syria, and a few other so called "sovereign nations" *snort* in the region will never be reconstructed.  They are fragmented beyond repair.  A working alliance is developing between Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey (all predominately Sunni Muslim) as well as....shhhh....Israel.  Their goal is to counter, take down even, Shia Muslim Iran.  Except Iran soon might have nukes, and may or may not be afraid to use them.  *gulp*
  
When the implosion finally comes, in whatever form it comes, some of us might be giddy happy....until we realize the real world consequences.  The global oil supply will be forever changed, and radical Muslims will scurry from there like rats fleeing a flooded sewer.  

As Europe gets 70-80% (?) of their energy from Russia and the Mid East combined (more on Russia later), they will be devastated.  The US, thanks to its newly energized oil production (fracking), will be somewhat spared....until the Europeans start bidding up the price of the rest of the world's oil.  Then it will impact us here, too.  We currently think we're swimming in oil world-wide, but if production tanks in the Mid East, that changes big time!  (You might think twice about the long-term wisdom of buying that giant gas guzzling truck/SUV.)

2.  Europe is screwed.  REALLY screwed!  In addition to their energy dilemma, the European Union (EU) is in its death throe.  The Euro as a monetary unit is not long for this world.  It is fatally flawed.  A common currency where each Euro zone country is counting on the others collectively to bail them out in a pinch (see Greece), yet has no say in how their errant cousins spend their money, is crazy.  If one stumbles, the others can motor along just fine, but if several go over the edge at the same time....YIKES!  (Would you give your kid a credit card, and guarantee their debts, with no strings attached?)

The wealthy northern Europeans resent the spendthrift southern Europeans, and if / when their economies hit the fan, it will be taps for the EU.  And the Biggest Loser will be Germany, and Germany pulls Europe's strings.  Dependent on others for most of their energy, and with 50% of their GNP derived from high-value exports, Germany will take a huge hit.  Europe will be "every man for himself", and we've seen how that often turns out.  

And do I even have to mention what is likely to happen when the social cost of taking in a million or more Middle Eastern refugees becomes apparent?  And since the Europeans have a rather dismal record of assimilating immigrants from other cultures, these new arrivals are likely to become restive and even violent, egged on by the embedded Muslim extremists / terrorists streaming in, too.  (But give the Europeans credit....most have their hearts in the right place at least.)

3.  China will wonder what hit them, too.  China's huge appetite for energy will see them dramatically retrench when the oil market wretches.  We tend to think of China as an economic behemoth, and it sorta is, but it's also a house of cards.  Their "stock market" is laughable.  It is HUGELY overvalued.  

Most of their companies (literally) are money losers kept afloat by their Sugar Daddy government, yet have P/E multiples in the stratosphere.  The Chinese right now are burning through their vault-full of surplus cash at an alarming rate, trying to buy time until they can fix things.  Which are they going to run out of first....time, or cash?  The ripples spreading out around the globe due to a stumbling China will be tough to contain.

And there are really two (Mainland) China's:  The industrial, gleaming, new, prosperous coastal China, and the still relatively backward interior.  The former gets much more generous treatment from their government, while their country cousins get short changed.  How long do you think THAT inequality will last when faced with a substantial economic meltdown?  Ouch!

4.  Russia....they're in denial.  They (their leadership at least) still like to think of themselves as a world power, but they aren't.  They're broke, and their economy is pretty much a one-trick pony (oil & gas).  If the collapse of the Mid East makes Russian oil suddenly more valuable....here's the scary part....they could be even MORE delusional.  The drunk bull will once again be stumbling around in the china closet.  And if they, for whatever reason, remain economically sickly, remember the old saying...."desperate people do desperate things."  Don't take your eye off them!

5.  South/Latin America is constantly on the verge of breaking out, but whenever they get close, they shoot themselves in the foot. There is no sign of anything changing there any time soon.  Same old same old.

6.  Africa is still resource rich....and still (likely forever?) dysfunctional.  No change there, either.

7.  North America (which includes the USA, for those who are geographically challenged :) will come through in much better shape, though we're not invulnerable.  We're both envied and scorned now for our often excessive / bully ways, and we will be even more so if we keep to our "my way or the highway" Tea Party / conservative attitude.  I am heartened, though, by the fact that many of our current crop of political candidates, D & R alike, are NOT the same old party hacks that we keep recycling, but genuinely new faces, even if one is Donald Trump's.  :)

We are much more energy sufficient than we were just a decade ago, yet if the rest of the world retrenches due to a Mid East in permanent collapse, we'll have foreigners wanting to buy OUR oil at prices that will hit us consumers hard in our wallets.  And with the world in a prolonged economic squeeze, we'll have fewer markets for our super-productive businesses to sell to.  We simply can't consume internally all we are capable of producing.  We'll likely see business closures, rising unemployment, and maybe even social unrest.  Then throw in a stagnant middle class, deteriorating race relations, etc....

8.  The environment is a changing.  We can argue about whether this change is man-made or just nature's natural cycle, but regardless, it's changing.  Colder winters, hotter summers, more severe droughts and floods....Mother Nature is pissed!  Her PMS may well change world-wide agricultural patterns.  Remember, hungry people are dangerous people.

When you put all the jigsaw puzzle pieces together, this is the picture on the box top.  If this scenario is correct, or even partially correct, we could be in for a rough ride.  Even if we get our house in order, we can still be blindsided by others around the world who are likely to be fighting for their lives.  Sometimes it seems like "globalism" is coming full circle to bite us, huh?

And if this scenario proves NOT to be correct, then it means all those think tanks, fancy-pants PhD analysts, and other assorted soothsayers I subscribe to were full of crap, so never mind.  ;)

S 

"Normal" is a relative term

Looks like things are returning to normal here.  Over the past week we buried my 96-year old aunt (on Tuesday) and yesterday we laid to rest my 96-year old step-mom, too.  They both just wore out and died peacefully....they did it right!

Interesting factoid:  If I understood the story correctly, my step-mom invented the "conference call".  It was during WWII and she was working for the Southwestern Bell phone company.

  
She figured out a way to plug in the wires to the switchboard in such a way that she could connect calls from servicemen to multiple people on the other end at the same time, enabling them to all hear their loved one during the very brief calls the soldiers were allowed.  

Later the phone company techies of the day ran with her idea and, in the true spirit of capitalism, perfected a way to charge us extra for it.

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They are officially zero.  I'm talking about the odds that I will ever travel to India.  Before I read today's paper my odds of visiting India were about the same slightly lower than my sweeping Scarlett Johansson off her feet and driving off into the sunset with her beside me in my vintage Ferrari.

It seems in the northern Indian state of Uttar Prapesh the heat spiked to 117 degrees and the power company shut down.  The story said that on a good day power only works for a couple of hours anyway, but now they don't even get that.

And being the super intelligent folks they are, they rioted, took the electric company employees hostage, and burned down the electric substations.  Yeah, that'll show 'em!

So now they have 200,000,000 people (literally) running around without even their usual 2 hours of electric service a day.  And to make matters worse, I'll bet you $100 the stores are all sold out of deodorant, too.  Man, they can't buy a break!

Nope, sorry. No air conditioning, no Scotty boy.  Texas in the summer is bad enough.  I'm not going looking for trouble.

Stay cool everyone.  :)

S

Just a walk in the park

Since I'm not having to endure the floods in the midwest and southeast or the drought, heat, and fires out west I can say this:  I'm rather enjoying this climate change thing.

With early morning temps yesterday in the low 60's and staying in the 70's until early afternoon, K and I decided it would be a perfect day to go and re-visit the new Klyde Warren Park in downtown Dallas.

K's little Toyota Skateboard Coupe is perfect for maneuvering 'round town.

Lots of people were there with their miniature humans in special push-carts.

The mid-sized ones seemed content in the corner corral.

We had a good selection of food trucks to choose from for lunch.

We had a perfect spot to sit and enjoy the sights.  It was very pleasant until two guys got out their guitars and starting yelling and groaning.  (K and I had a difference of opinion on this.  She thought they were "singing".  She's funny sometimes.)

It was interesting watching this tiny little lady, maybe 110 pounds, hauling around this GIANT dog.  He was a Great Pyrenees / Bull Mastiff mix that weighed 180 pounds.  Very friendly, though, a true gentle giant.

This Miniature Schnauzer, however, had no use for the paparazzi.

A little grocery shopping later and a stop at Paciugo for some gelato, then we retired back home to watch the Louis Vuitton Cup yacht racing on TV, which still fascinates me.  Yep, this climate change thing makes for some fine weekends.  :)

S

One down, two to go

Summer in Texas is a miserable, disgusting time of the year.  Anyone who disagrees has been out in it too long.  When you open the door first thing in the morning to step out to get the newspaper, for example, and you're immediately hit by a blast of air so hot and muggy your glasses fog up, it makes you want to just crank down the A/C and go back to bed.

This climate change thing has blindsided a lot of people this year.  Blizzards when they weren't supposed to, heat waves where we weren't supposed to, floods, freak sand storms....what's next?  But oddly enough, Dallas has so far had a fairly palatable summer.  We've had a few 100 degree days, but we've also had a few days that never even climbed into the 90's. 

This morning before 7 I took Luke the Wonderdog out for a long walk.  My weather app said the temp was 74 degrees, but a pretty stiff breeze made it feel like it was in the 60's.  And if the weatherguessers are to be believed, this will be one of those sub-90 degree days.  SWEET!

I'm not foolish enough to expect August and September to be like our July was, but at least I only have two more months of misery to endure before October relief arrives.

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I like lists.  Not "To Do" lists, but lists of fun things.  Like today on Yahoo news, for example, it had a list of the 10 coolest summer cities (we're talking temperatures), and also the 10 hottest.  

Two of the top 10 coolest are among my personal favorite cities, too:  Seattle and Denver.  Seattle because of its uniqueness and Denver because it's just a short drive (by Texas standards) to the mountains.  THE mountains.  THE ROCKY mountains.  I love THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.  *insert little tiny heart shape symbol here*

My new address when I win the lottery

No surprise, 4 of the top 10 hottest summer cities were in Texas, Dallas being #3.  What's that old saying?...."I've got a spot in heaven guaranteed 'cause I've already done my time in hell."

Carry on and stay cool.

S

Do I dare hope?....and a good Thursday giggle, too.

While we can argue until the cows come home about the causes of climate change, I think we can all agree the climate IS changing.  Unless you've been holed up in mama's basement since the Clinton administration without access to a window, you know something isn't right.

Right now, for example, it's already hot and dry....very un-spring-like....in the west.  The weatherguessers say the wildfire season might start early; the ingredients are already in place.

And right here where I am near Dallas the temps are dropping like a rock, with wind chills expected to be in the upper-teens on Friday morning.  It could be worse*....our cold goes right up America's mid-section bringing record snows further north on May 1!  What the....?  And for those in the south and east....man the sandbags....it's flooding.

     *I'm not complaining.  I can always slip on jeans and a jacket and be toasty.  I'm lovin' this last bit of cool weather!

Always trying to put lipstick on a pig, here's what I'm selfishly hoping for:  Where Texas summers are usually unbearably HOT (all caps), I'm hoping this summer might be abnormally cool.  This would be right in character with the upside-down weather we've had recently.  Do I dare hope?

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Have y'all seen this new Kmart ad announcing their free shipping?  To some it's offensive, to me it's just freakin' hilarious.  You decide:

With that, I'll let you get on with your business.  ;)

S

Her 15 minutes of fame

Yesterday as I was driving down the Dallas North Parkway I spotted this...um...zoo escapee?  (I happened to have my 'lil pocket camera at hand and traffic was moving slowly, as always.)  I've bought a lot of cars in my lifetime, but I don't ever recall seeing on the option list a leopard spot paint job. Have you? 


Changing course, yesterday Joan Perry (Charleston Daily Photo) had a link to a cute game, The Longevity Game.  You enter your height, weight, how much you smoke, drink, whether you drive like a maniac, etc, and it tells you how long you'll live. Of course everyone wants to see "100 years" or some such ripe old age, but based on a serious story I read over the weekend, that seems increasingly unlikely.


Long story short, there are too many people in the world.  The world's population has roughly doubled in my lifetime, and a baby born today can expect to see it double again in his lifetime, to 10-12 billion people.  (It's about 6.5 billion today.)


In centuries past various maladies...wars, plagues, famines... have conspired to hold the population in check, but not today.  Climate change...think drought in Australia, floods in the USA, heat waves in Europe, violent storms everywhere, etc...are making it difficult for the food supply to keep up with world population gains.  Plus all these new people want their piece of the pie such as cars, a comfortable place to live, and other creature comforts, all requiring more mining for raw materials, polluting production facilities, roads, all dictating less arable land for agriculture.  The vicious circle just goes on and on.


Not to sound all doomy and gloomy, but maybe we should set our sights on a more modest number of years to roam the earth than The Longevity Game suggests we should expect. One way or another, it's going to catch up with us.


"Quality" and "quantity" are two very different things.  Party on.  :) 


S