And where they'll land, noooooobody knows....

Wait for the $64,000 Question at the end

The mass exodus of desperate refugees from the war torn regions of the Mid East (which is most of it) continues.  Men, women, and little children are running for their lives, carrying with them little more than the clothes on their back.  Over a million are expected to make it to Europe this year, but exactly where they will eventually call home is still up in the air.

Our Western sense of decency and compassion, at least mine, says we must help them.  We can't simply sit idly by when people are exhausted, hungry, homeless, and desperate.  To do nothing would be absolutely heartless.

But now we're told it's almost guaranteed that embedded within these migrants are terrorists.  The jihadists are certainly cruel and brutal, but they are NOT stupid.  I doubt many of the fearful refugees making the trek are carrying official paperwork, so it would be easy for a few hundred....thousand?....ISIS/Al Qaeda-types to sneak through, too, where they could link-up later with cells already in place in Europe or elsewhere.

Let's back up and review for a second.  What is the ultimate root-cause of all this mess?  IMO, it's Islam.  Have you seen a religion, in the modern era at least, that condones killing to this degree in the name of their Supreme Being?  That seems to be one bitter religion.  Shia vs Sunni....Wahhabi....Salafist....they're just out of control!  My understanding is they aren't fighting for economic gain, or territorial gain, but to conquer others in order to please Allah.

Sure, Christianity has had their dark periods, too....think The Crusades, and more recently in Northern Ireland and the Balkans and a few other places as well.  (I don't think you could include the Nazi era, Stalin's reign of terror, the Japanese atrocities in the Orient, or the Khmer Rouge of Cambodia, etc, as they were NOT about religion.)  But looking at the big picture of modern world history, the brutality of Islam seems to be in a religious class by itself.

Of course not ALL Muslims are terrorists, far from it.  But the crazies are gaining momentum, and the rest seem to be becoming more marginalized.   Now ordinary, middle class, educated, (mainly young and impressionable) Muslims are drinking the jihadist Kool Aid, too.  The European Union is right now trying to decide how many refugees each member country should take in, and the US is also weighing in on how many should be admitted here as well.

The $64,000 Question

Considering the horrendous death, destruction, and panic that could be inflicted on the general population today by a terrorist attack, is it time to revisit "profiling"?  I know it's wrong to profile kids just because they're wearing hoodies, or because a minority drives through an affluent white suburb after dark, but the consequences of missing a jihadist plot as it's being hatched are quite different.  It's a tough question, and definitely a slippery slope.  How do you balance the rights of the many vs the potential harm that could be caused by the few?

Let's apply this to a scenario closer to home:  You're taking your son to begin his freshman year at college.  Due to a dorm SNAFU he's been assigned to a new room at the last minute.  You get the key and go to room 234 and find his new roommate already there.  

As you enter he and several friends abruptly cease their rather animated conversation, and you notice a scene on a laptop of an explosion or maybe a hooded man holding a huge bloody knife, before it's snapped shut.  The friends leave without making eye contact, and after Mohammad introduces himself, leaves as well.  He has no room decorations, no pictures or posters on the bulletin board, and the textbooks on his shelf suggest he's a chemical or maybe electrical engineering major.

Do you give your son a good luck handshake, slip him a couple hundred dollars extra "fun money" and remind him to behave himself, then mosey back home?  Or do you consider that maybe a semester back at the local junior college might not be such a bad place for little Timmy after all?

What would you do?  

S

Did you hear the one about the Rabbi and the Saudi King....

As a student of geopolitics....I know, I know...*yawn*....I'm always intrigued by what's happening in that hellhole formerly known as the Mideast.  It seems those people just aren't happy unless they're fighting someone, and right now they must be feeling absolutely blissful.

Now Iranian Ayatollah What'shisname has announced that if economic sanctions against his country aren't lifted completely and immediately as soon as the recent nuclear arms treaty is implemented in June, the deal is off.  Big surprise, huh?  It's just one big stall after another.  Always has been their MO, and probably always will be.

Oh dear, what shall we do?

My advice: nothing.

The Saudi Arabians have long been among the most vociferous critics of Israel.  They have gone out of their way to support those front line countries who have vowed to wipe Israel off the map, and they have sent vast sums of $$$ to terrorist groups who are trying to do just that.

The Saudis are also bitter enemies with Iran.  Iran is Shia, while Saudi Arabia is Sunni.  (FYI, Islam is 80% Sunni, 20% Shia.)  Right now Saudi Arabia is scared shitless of Iran's growing power and their overt moves to expand their sphere of influence throughout the Mideast.

Meanwhile, in the Israeli mind, the Holocaust was just yesterday.  They are (legitimately IMO) obsessed with seeing to it that any external threat to them be stopped in its tracks, proactively if need be.  They have often been criticized for being a little heavy handed (true), but still, their paranoia is not without cause.

Now imagine this:  Saudi Arabia is heavily involved in the Yemeni civil war to their south.  Israel sees any softening of resolve to keep Iran nuclear weapon-less as something they cannot accept.  They will settle for nothing less than Iran's nuclear ambitions being gutted.

It wouldn't be be a stretch to imagine a temporary unholy alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel to kick Iran in the 'nads.  It wouldn't be too difficult for a massive Israeli strike package to slip through Jordanian airspace (perhaps even with their unofficial support), then use Saudi airspace to refuel and penetrate deep into Iran to do the deed.

With Saudi Arabia embroiled in Yemen far to the south, they would have a perfect excuse for claiming they were caught totally unaware.  "Plausible deniability" they call it.  *wink, wink*

Israel could aerial-refuel their strike aircraft en route as they ingressed and egressed Iran, essential as an unrefueled flight to Iran and back directly from Israel is beyond their capability.  And if anyone knows where the Iranians have dispersed their essential research sites, it's the Israelis.

Israel could cripple or destroy Iran's nuclear program, and Saudi Arabia could set back their old foe for years, maybe decades, just by "looking the other way".  Win/win.

Of course, Israel would have to watch for a Saudi double cross as they were returning from their strike and desperately needing to refuel over northern Saudi airspace, but it's a chance they just might take.

The West of course would stomp and holler (very insincerely) in condemnation of Israel, as would the Muslim world (except 80% would be secretly chuckling), but nothing would come of it except a few resolutions from the UN, which Israel would immediately drop straight into their overflowing File 13.

So I say let's just sit back and let the Mideast take care of the Mideast.  This geopolitical junkie will be watching intently.

S