Point / Counterpoint

The West, led by the United States, as well as Israel and most of the UN, are dead set against Iran developing nuclear weapons.  Of course we are.  Iran's leaders don't seem to think the way we in the West do.  They see sacrificing a few million of their own people in a counter-strike in order to wipe out Israel a fair trade.  Their idea of "national pride" is near suicidal.  The same goes for North Korea.

But what right do we have in telling them they can't pursue a nuclear program?  How can one sovereign nation, or group of nations, tell another sovereign nation what they can do internally?  As long as they don't use their nukes against others, shouldn't that be their right to have them?

It would be like the OPEC nations prohibiting the US from pursuing hydraulic fracturing to recover more domestic oil.  Of course it would be against their national interests for us to do so, but they don't have the right to prohibit us from doing it.

Seems to me we are just throwing international law out the window here.  That said, this is one area where I think Civil Disobedience is justified.

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The US and Europe are also all bent out of shape over Russia's incursion into Ukraine and their annexation of the Crimean peninsula.  It just seems like a land grab, much like what Nazi Germany did when they took over Austria and Czechoslovakia prior to WWII.  That's how we see it at least.

But the Russian psyche is much different than ours.  They have a long memory and remember how they have been invaded repeatedly from the west.  That's why after WWII they set up all their Commie proxies....E Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungry, etc....between Western Europe (read: NATO) and themselves.  

If the West attacked again, they could devastate those proxy countries before they reached The Motherland.  At least that was their plan.  Now with many of their former Warsaw Pact allies (?) actually part of NATO, and right on their border at that, they are super antsy. 

When Russia saw the overt courtship going on between the West and Ukraine, they no doubt saw full-fledged European Union and NATO membership for Ukraine on the horizon.  Their already tightly wound paranoia snapped.  I think we were a bit too "bull-in-a-china-closet"-ish.  Now it's gonna be difficult if not impossible to get that genie back into the bottle. 

As I see it, here's our dilemma:  We need to punish and marginalize Russia for their actions without actually pushing them over the edge (letting the Russian Federation dissolve).  

Remember what happened the last time we took down evil (Iraq, Libya, and soon Syria)?  What we got was dramatically more dangerous than what we dismantled. Of course we (the West) could collectively take Russia down, but would that necessarily be a smart thing to do?

S

As Scotland goes, so goes....the world?

Today Scotland votes on whether they want to stay part of Great Britain or go it alone as an independent country.  Many there have long wanted their independence, and this seems as civilized a way as any to get it.  If they vote "yes" they will probably claim much of the North Sea oil, which will fund their operations quite nicely.  Until it some day runs out.

But it's a much bigger vote than just that.  In many parts of Europe....the world even....there are many regions watching and taking notes.  After all the 20th Century European wars many of them are of one heritage/custom/language, yet are officially part of another country.

If Scotland can pull it off, will Catalonia (think Barcelona) give it a try?  Will Belgium finally just give up and implode, the Flemish and Walloons going their separate ways (to Holland and France)?  Will Poland grow and Ukraine shrink?  The possibilities are almost endless.

For a few of us it will be interesting to watch.  For the rest of you, you can go back to your Twitting now.

S

Hello Monday

 

It was 45 years ago yesterday that the United States successfully completed its first moon shot.  For the record, my first successful moon shot predates that by about 11 years.

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Speaking of mooning....what is it with Russian President Vladimir "Pootie Poo" Putin?  Why do we even sit down with him to discuss anything?  In his world lying through your teeth to get what you want is perfectly acceptable. 

Those dumb rebel bastards in Ukraine apparently don't know there are ears listening to all their radio transmissions and eyes (and cameras) watching their missile launcher, minus one missile, hot footing it back across the border into Russia.  All while Pootie Poo says, "Nope, not us.  We didn't shoot down your plane.  Nobody saw us.  You can't prove a thing." 

I thought one of the benefits of doing business with "enemies" people who we have previously been at odds with is they wouldn't dare do anything to jeopardize their newly-found mutually beneficial business relationship?  It would "civilize" them.
  
Apparently Vladimir Putin didn't get that memo.   He is now the official "King of Mooning".  All Hail King Poot!

S

Now you see it....now you don't

 I love weather....nothing destructive of course, but just lots of lightning, thunder, and rain coming down in sheets.  Saturday evening I was like a kid on Christmas morning when a line of heavy thunderstorms rolled through.

In Texas, more often than not these storms come through in long, narrow north/south bands moving from west to east.  It will storm wildly for half an hour, then....it's over.  Just like that.

I was impressed by this "supersonic goose" flying in from the northwest.  It looks like it has its wings swept back like an F-14.

And then, pretty much as fast as it blew in....

....it was gone.

(Full disclosure: these beautiful photos were taken by K. :)  

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My Deep Thought for the week:

These are interesting times we live in.  I've always enjoyed studying international relations.  It's like a giant chess game:  The smart players plan many moves ahead instead of just reacting to the last move of their opponent.  

 

Oops!

Yesterday Vladimir Putin made another move towards "check".  The people of Crimea voted to join Russia, and of course Russia will immediately accept.  Then they will no longer be an "occupier"; Crimea will be an integral part of the Russian Federation.

Shortly the ethnic majority in eastern Ukraine, also Russian speaking, will start down that same road.  Those regions will sooner rather than later demand an election, the conclusion forgone, and Russian troops currently sitting just across their common border will move in to "protect" them.

The US, EU, and NATO will sit on their hands as usual while all this happens.  They have the ability to act, but lack the will to do anything.  Which is just as well since those regions mean more to Russia than they do to the West, and any efforts to intercede would be doomed from the get-go.

Fortunately for the West that will be as far as it goes.  Any attempt by Russia to take over the rest of Ukraine would be received much the same as the treatment the Rooskies and the US experienced in Afghanistan....there would be a guerrilla behind every rock, something they can't afford.

I'm sure Russia would like to regain control of their former Baltic republics, but they are now integrated as full members of NATO and the European Union, and the West probably would get physically involved there if push came to shove.

That's my prediction.  Let's see if I read it right or not.  And If it turns out I did read it right, that begs the question, if dumb s__t little me sitting here in Frisco, TX can figure it out, why can't those overpaid gubment weenies in Washington figure it out, too?  Why are they always caught flat footed?

S

Would you buy a used car from this man?

His official title might read, "Vladimir Putin, President of Russia", but his job description is much less grandiose.  He's a thug, the most powerful thug in a country run by thugs.  And he's a liar, someone utterly without morals.  

Vladimir Putin cannot be trusted, ever.  Whatever words come out of his mouth are uttered only to serve his interests, period.  He will die with an unrepentant Communist-era KGB mind set. 

If you'll look back at my blog post of February 20th I predicted that the unrest in Ukraine would not end well.  Putin absolutely will NOT let the Ukraine slip from his virtual control, and let's not kid ourselves, that's exactly what he had before former Ukrainian President Yanukovych was ousted.  Putin sneezed, "Yank-man" caught the cold.

Now Putin has flat-out invaded the Crimean peninsula, a region of southern Ukraine where Russia still maintains a naval base.  Russian forces quietly strolled out of that base and took over the region's airports, then began airlifting in an estimated 6,000 additional troops. And if he wants to take a bigger bite out of Ukraine, there's nothing stopping him.

This from a "world leader" who not long ago warned the West that they must, MUST respect the sovereignty of sleaze-states such as Iran and Syria, regardless of how evil they might be.  No exceptions!  ROFLMAO!

And there isn't a damn thing we....the US, the EU, or NATO....can do about it.  The West no longer has any real deterrent options left open to them. 

"But....but....we have all these planes and tanks and ships and NUCLEAR WEAPONS for God's sake!"  Yes, but those are no longer deterrents.

To "deter" someone from doing something you must have THE MEANS to stop them and THE WILL to use it.  As mentioned, we have the means, but we will absolutely NOT use it.  

And Vladimir Putin knows it.  No modern democracy can will compete toe-to-toe with a dictator on ruthlessness.  It's just no longer part of our national DNA.

"There will be consequences for Russia's invasion," Washington says.  How so?  American businesses are conducting lucrative trade with Russia and aren't going to give it up.  (Money talks, and all that, you know.)  

Meaningful economic sanctions are out of the question.  A pin prick here and there maybe, but Putin will just laugh those off.  We have our hands full militarily just trying to smoke out a few nasty heathens in Afghanistan.  

And to make matters worse, energy-poor Europe needs Russian natural gas. A simple twist of a few pipeline valves and Europe will be freezing before nightfall.  Europe is in no position to do anything punitive.

Europe and America might bluster, but that's all for domestic consumption.  Practically speaking, Putin knows we're toothless. 

"Then that august body, The United Nations, will step up and exert world pressure on Russia, right?" Once again, ROFLMAO! 

You are witnessing the opening salvo of Cold War 2.0, and so far the home team isn't doing so good.

S

PS:  And please don't point fingers at one political party or another or any single president and say "it's all their fault."  This situation has been festering for decades.

This isn't going to end well

For those of you who have been napping for the past month, let me update you on world events:

The folks in Ukraine (formerly one of the Soviet Socialist Republics before the USSR went belly-up) are in full-fledge revolt.  They want to align themselves with the European Union as they see that as the surest way for them to grow and prosper.  As it is now they're a sneeze away from bankruptcy.  Russia doesn't want to let go of their influence there, and is pulling the strings of the current Ukraine leader.

Vladimir Putin (aka Pootie-Pooh), the Russian President, is about to blow a gasket thinking about one of "his" neighbors rejecting him and taking up with their neighbors on the other side. He's very possessive, a man scorned, and he's an old school KGB'er at heart....not a good combination.  

Meanwhile back in Sochi, the showcase Olympics that Pootie has spent the equivalent of $50B on is turning out to be a laughable mess.  These Olympics are to Russia today what the 1936 Berlin Olympics were to Nazi Germany; a way to show the world how advanced, modern, and powerful they are.  

So far that isn't working out well.  Their facilities are woefully crude and crumbling and many of the venues themselves are simply inferior.  The Russians are hockey obsessed and care about little else but their team winning the hockey Gold Medal.  Yesterday they were knocked out....humiliated even....in a quarterfinal round.  

Home-grown terrorists are somewhere in the Sochi shadows right now, hoping to cause mayhem.  They have so far been kept at bay only because Russia has stationed a not-so-small army there (for now) to step on them.  All this is taking its toll.  The Russian (read: Vladimir Putin's) psyche has been severely wounded.  

Remember the old joke...."What's worse than shooting at a charging bear and missing?  Shooting at a charging bear and only wounding him."

If the protesters in Ukraine succeed in putting in place a new government that turns it's back on Russia, don't be surprised if Putin does something violent in response.  Or maybe he'll even devise an excuse to physically go into Ukraine before it gets to that to "restore calm".   

Of course the west will respond with a meaningless statement of condemnation, the Russians will curtail natural gas deliveries to Europe (they provide the majority of Europe's natural gas) as pipelines go down for "routine maintenance", and from there....?

Most catastrophes don't start out with one gigantic "boom".  They're usually the result of a number of small things that go wrong and build on each other, culminating in one gigantic boom.  Nobody, least of all little 'ol me, knows yet what's going to happen.  But considering the crude, violent nature of politics in that part of the world, I'm guessing things aren't going to end well.

S