Tuesday, June 17, 2014

So what shape should we make the wheel this time?

Can any of you remember the first Persian Gulf war in Iraq, circa 1990-91?  That was the one where we bombed everything Iraq had of military value for a couple of months, then turned the Army and Marines loose on what was left. 

After only 100 hours, literally, President George H.W. Bush called them off and dictated terms to Saddam Hussein, allowing him to remain as Iraq's dictator.  Ever wonder why that was?  

It was because the King of Saudi Arabia counseled Bush 41 to stop pursuing Saddam, telling him he might stir up (an even bigger) hornet's nest if he wasn't careful.   


And these Boy Scouts should know

What the King meant was, even the region's really despicable tyrants like Saddam Hussein looked pretty tame compared to the other nut jobs itching to step into their shoes.

Truth is, as I've stated before, the people in that part of the world have a different value system, a different way of thinking.  Our Western ideas of "logic" and "decency" just don't translate.  They are simply an uncivilized society. 

No, of course I don't mean every single one of them.  But enough that it makes my statement valid.  While we in the US have our Westboro Baptist Church types, they are just tiny little cells of crazies scattered here and there.  

In Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Pakistan, on and on....their extremists are a huge percentage (a majority?) of their population.  Say something unkind about their religion or publish an offensive cartoon and they issue a fatwah on your ass.

My point is, they always have and always will fight and kill each other.  That's all they know how to do.  At times they might subscribe to "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" and work together, but it's a fleeting arrangement.  Blink twice and they're right back at each others throats.

Now the Sunni Muslim minority in Iraq are on a roll and are vowing to take over the entire country by brute force.  Our concern is that if they do it will open the door for more extremists to train there and eventually threaten us here in America.  

The truth is, even if the Sunni militants (the ISIS) DON'T take over all of Iraq by brute force (they're unlikely to capture Baghdad proper or other Shia strongholds) they can and likely will still train others to come after us.  Count on it.  While it would be nice to keep the bad guys "over there", I'm afraid we're past that.

Make no mistake, this is not an American failure.  It's an Iraqi failure.  We set them up with every material advantage they could possibly need to succeed.  What we can't give them is new gray matter between their ears.

So what do we do?  (Q:  Why does the entire world look to the USA when something "needs to be done"?)  IMHO, and as seen through my pragmatic eyes, here's what I think we should do:  Get some chips and dip and maybe a few beers, sit back, and if we're lucky watch the militants on both sides annihilate each other.  While we should pray they spare the innocents, it's simply out of our hands.

LATE NEWS:  It was just reported that the US will soon send 275 Special Forces to "advise" the Iraqi Security Forces.  So the 150,000 troops we once had there couldn't "fix" Iraq, but now these 275 can?


DUH!  Even rocks are smarter than that.

S


13 comments:

  1. What the U.S. created in Iraq was a vacuum, exacerbated by Paul Bremer when he dissolved the Iraqi army. Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, et al. had no followup plan and Wolfowitz said the oil revenues would rebuild Iraq, when in fact the U.S. ended up spending billions of dollar in that effort.

    The problem with the U.S. thinking is that they want to force democracy on ancient countries who don't want it and have been in religious civil war for centuries. The U.S. also says they are attempting to establish democracy, when if fact they are trying to "Americanize" them.

    Instead of Obama sending in advisory forces and troops to protect the embassy, he should pull every American out and give them the damn building.

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  2. I thought the 275 troops were there to help guard the embassy. At least that's what I heard on the morning news.

    I think a large part of the problem isn't necessarily they have a different value system but when you're living in extreme poverty in 100 degree heat with sand everywhere you start looking for any way out. Poor desperate uneducated people are ripe for being taken advantage of by radical movements. If those kings and princes actually shared some of their immense wealth instead of hoarding it they might find their people a little more amenable to change.

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  3. Muslim's dying for a just cause (in their opinion) will be rewarded after their death, with a group of virgins and other things. That's a better life than they currently have.

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  4. It IS our fault what's happening in Iraq. We allowed the Iraqi government to function with disregard for the Sunni minority. It was inevitable that a civil war would break out. We could and should have done more to compel the government we made possible to be much more inclusive.

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    1. When the various tribes and religious sects hate each other as much as those in Iraq do, I don't think it is possible to "compel" them to be more tolerant and inclusive of each other. They played nice as long as the US was there passing out blank checks, but in their hearts nothing changed because of our good intentions. You are right in that what is happening there now was inevitable. Our presence just delayed it by 12 years.

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  5. We've tried just about everything in that area, maybe we should just do as you say and see what happens. The result is never good anyway. The best way to protect our men is to get them out.

    Just be prepared to help Israel if they need it. They actually like us and are civilized to boot.

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    1. I think Israel is pretty capable of taking care of themselves. :)

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  6. Some years ago Henry Kissinger (The Envoy, Meddle in Everything Guy) was asked in an interview what the US can do or should do in the Middle East. He said "Nothing". The closest any US President has gotten to 'helping' there was Jimmy Carter, and every President since him has tried.

    My son was a Army Ranger, in Iraq in 2007 and Afghanistan twice. I asked him how the two cultures differed. He said "The Afghans are cleaner, smarter, and they really, really don't like us."

    Their internal conflicts are almost always about religion, mixed with tribalism. We know nothing about it, or how to fix it.

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    1. Interesting insight into the Iraqi v Afghani comparison. Please pass along my thanks to your son for is service.

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  7. I have nothing intelligent to add to this discussion, excep to say that I really really hope my nephew gets to spend his army tour in Washington state!

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  8. I agree with Pat Dilloway - misery breeds terrorism.

    I don't think the majority of people in that region are terrorists, but this minority seems to be extremely powerful. I feel horrible for the everyday, hardworking people there, the women and children. But I agree - it's not our place to be there or to "fix" them.

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  9. We can't "fix it". You can't fix someone who doesn't think they are broken. You can't fix a country that doesn't think they are broke.

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    1. couldn't find the "edit button" so here is more: They don't want our democracy. They want to be able to pick up a weapon and go kill their neighbor because his god is slightly different than their own. You can't change thousands of years of religious ideology by waiving some $ in their faces - although they will happily take your $ to buy a swanky car and some weapons. Walk away from the Middle East. Close the embassies. Remove the troops. If your a contractor - you are on your own. Keep a few back doors available with Israel and maybe Saudi Arabia. BUT none of that is going to happen ..... because they have OIL. It's all about the oil.

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